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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 172326
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY THEN EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND MADE JUST MADE MINOR EDITS TO
THE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. STILL MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRATUS LAYER TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREAD COASTAL
AREAS. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS
CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DRIER THAN SOME OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THINKING IF THE CLOUD COVER OCCURS...IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY HOW FAR
INLAND THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL GET. BUT ALSO STILL EXPECTING HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SO SKY COVER FORECAST
REFLECTS THAT AS WELL.

STILL THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING...AT LEAST WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. SO
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FROST MAY NOT EVEN DEVELOP WITH THE CLOUD 
COVER...HOWEVER IF CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE IN...OR WE GET BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER 30S. OF COURSE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT 
OF CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO MOVE IN. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MAV/MET 
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY 
NIGHT. 

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY 
AND GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE 
IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 
CLOUDY WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING NEARBY. 

MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY 
WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT FALLS INTO THE 
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A SLOW 
MOVING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ADVECTION 
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD 
UNDER FULL SUN AS HUMIDITIES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 30 PCT AND NW 
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE 
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY...A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE 
MOVES OFF THE COAST CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S 
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WITH LOW 60S NORTH AND WEST OF 
NYC.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A DIGGING AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE 
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY CAUSING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA WITH 
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT 
THIS TIME...THIS APPEARS TO MAINLY BE A LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE 
RAINFALL OF 1/4-1/2 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.

A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS. AFTER 
02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12 KT. SEA 
BREEZE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING BKN CIGS
AROUND THE CITY TERMINALS NEAR 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF
STRATUS OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF
MOVING INLAND. TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON PUSHED THE STRATUS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. WILL STILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN COASTAL TAFS
BECAUSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY. ANY
CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO 20KT 
TIL 02Z. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS 
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS 
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTN...BECOMING VFR.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE 
GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE AROUND 6-7 FT. THIS SMALL 
CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY 
NIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS MAY REMAIN FOR THE FIRST 
PART OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS 
THE COASTAL WATER.

SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE 
ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF LULL TUESDAY NIGHT..NORTHWEST WINDS MAY 
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR 1/4 - 1/2 INCH RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS 
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ069>071-
     078>081-177-179.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...BC/LN
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC








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