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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 282333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...AS HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BUILDS
NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE SFC
DEWPOINT.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DROP TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
UP AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE 50S DURING THE DAY TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS GLOBAL MODELS 
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. 
SUBTLE DETAILS OBVIOUSLY HARD TO PIN POINT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN 
WOULD SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...BUILDING 
HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

INITIAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH 
WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. LATEST GFS THEN 
INDICATES BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER 
THE RIDGE THURSDAY FLATTENS THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT...BUT LOOKS TO
BUILD RIGHT BACK FRIDAY. ECMWF INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET
CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE LOCAL WEATHER.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CANADIAN/NH...MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE 
RIDGE LIKELY SUPPRESSES TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH 
NEXT WEEK...BUT PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION.

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK 
HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. 
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS 
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR 
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS 
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN 
BEGINS TO BUILD OFF SHORE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SEA BREEZES WEAKEN 00Z TO 02Z WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE. THE WIND BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT EARLY IN 
THE MORNING...13Z. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP 15Z TO 16Z SOUTH SHORES AND 
MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.


   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY....VFR. MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON 
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. FOR THE WESTERN NY BIGHT AND THE MOUTH OF NY
HARBOR...ENHANCED SEABREEZE COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20 KT SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WHILE SEAS ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS 
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT MAINLY SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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