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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181950
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
250 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST REMAINS TRICKY. STRATO-CU FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AT 900 HPA HAS SCATTERED OUT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION FOR NOW. HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF NAM
AND GFS MOS ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. 

WINDS DIMINISH WITH SUNSET...BUT REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE (AROUND 10 IN THE NY METRO). MOS MIN TEMP GUIDANCE IS
CLOSE. HAVE MATCHED FCST TO THE NAM WHICH IS A DEGREE OR SO COLDER
THAT GFS WHICH MAY HAVE OVERDONE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER FCST IS AGAIN THE ONLY ISSUE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT. 

MOS BLEND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE AND WAS ACCEPTED FOR MAXES AND
MINS. TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO...IF NOT EXACTLY...SEASONABLE.

NOTE THAT THE  HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN OHIO WILL PASS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE UNDERDONE
THIS IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS - DEPENDING ON IF IT TURNS MORE OPAQUE
THAN EXPECTED. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEVELOPING LOW 
PRESSURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

SFC HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST AND 
PARK ITSELF NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF 
500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. 
WITH A LACK OF SFC MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH 
THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW...AND WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT 
CHANCE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND 
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OR NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 
30S TO AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW 40S ON SUNDAY.

A NEW MOON ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...MAY RESULT IN 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO 
THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. SFC LOW PRES 
WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF COAST 
STATES. THE SECONDARY LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE 
DAY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY. THE PARENT LOW AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO 
TRACK EAST EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL THEN 
FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DIVE INTO 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST.

THIS NEW LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST ON 
CHRISTMAS EVE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER 
NYC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN THE WARM 
SECTOR AND PCPN WILL BE ALL RAIN...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. 
CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STREET FLOODING DURING THE 
DAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...USHERING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE 
REGION. LATEST ECMWF HAS THE LOW STARTING OUT AS 993 MB NEAR CAPE 
HATTERAS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING UP AS A 965 MB LOW OVER 
WESTERN QUEBEC AT 12Z THURSDAY. WITH A 28 MB DROP IN 24 HOURS...CAN 
EXPECT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... 
TO DEVELOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY. 

ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A WEEK 
AWAY...AND MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BEFORE THEN.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN 035-050 CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH
TAF PERIOD

WINDS...DIRECTION MAINLY 290-300 DEGREES WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. THERE COULD BE SOME VARIATION WITH GUSTS BEING
INTERMITTENT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. 


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH WED...
.18Z FRI-SAT...VFR. 
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN CIGS. LIGHT EAST WINDS.
.MON...VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ONSHORE SE FLOW.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. SE WINDS
10-20 KT. 
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO W LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN SCA WIND
GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND MAY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS A
FEW HOURS SOONER THAN FCST.  

HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W ON FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE
WATERS THAT CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND 
CONDS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS DURING THAT TIME. A STRONGER LOW WILL 
IMPACT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ON THE WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE 
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH SAT WITH NO HYDRO IMPACTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE 
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER 
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT. NO HYDROLOGICAL 
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MAY AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MINOR 
STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MPS/TONGUE






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