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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 152014
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
414 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT DEEPENS OFF
THE NE ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES FURTHER
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND HI PRES
OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY NW FLOW IN THRU THIS
EVE...BEFORE THE PRES GRAD WEAKENS AND WINDS DIMINISH LATE TNGT.
PEAK GUSTS THIS EVE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
DECREASING FLOW ALOFT AFT 00Z SO COMBINATION OF THIS DECREASE WITH
SUNSET SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SLACKENING...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THE BEST LIFT PER IR OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND A GENERAL STORM
MOTION AWAY FROM THE CWA...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY.

LOWS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...AS LGT MIXING MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSIENT HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS THRU THE CWA DURING THE DAY...THEN
OFFSHORE BY EVE. LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL SO FCST TEMPS RIGHT
ABOUT CLIMO. DESPITE THE DRY LLVLS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO
30...BKN-OVC SKIES BY AFTN WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

NWRN PAC SHRTWV THEN BECOMES ENTRAINED WITH THE NRN STREAM AND
APPROACHES LATE MON NGT. THIS FEATURE WAS JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE
WA COAST SUN AFTN. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHC FOR SHWRS FROM W TO E
AFT MIDNIGHT. BL TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABV FREEZING ATTM...SO
MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT OR
IN THE MID LVLS TO PRODUCE A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX OVER
INTERIOR. EVEN IF THERE WAS SOME MIXING...NO ACCUMS EXPECTED.
TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS AND NAM 2M DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
TUE AS A VORTEX MEANDERS ABOUT HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. A JET STREAK TRAVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL SPAWN LOW
PRES ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH WED.
GUIDANCE IS WETTER WITH THE FROPA TODAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AS
A RESULT. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN. ONCE THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST A STRONG PRES GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. IT WILL ALSO BECOME COLDER TUE NIGHT AS
H85 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -16C AND -18C. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP
KEEPING WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 20F AND 25F...BUT WIND
CHILLS EARLY WED MORNING WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO
THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS THROUGH
AT LEAST THU NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO GO AWRY WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
REGARDS TO THE HUDSON BAY LOW...BUT DESPITE THIS THE CMC...EC AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM
FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DEEPENING LOWER PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT.

CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO 2500-3000 FT WITH SCATTERED SHRA
ACTIVITY INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS. SN COULD MIX IN WITH RA WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER
ACTIVITY...CAUSING BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. OUTSIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BKN-OVC CEILINGS
AROUND 3500-4500 FT INTO EARLY EVENING. CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY
MORNING.

W-WNW WINDS OF 15-25G30-35KT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING...HIGHEST FOR METRO TERMINALS. WINDS OF 300 TO 330
MAGNETIC EXPECTED TO GENERALLY AVERAGE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING THROUGH 06Z...LAST AT METRO TERMINALS. WINDS MONDAY
MORNING WILL WAVER AROUND 310 MAGNETIC BUT SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10
KT...BACKING TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY EVENING...VFR.
.LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
-SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND -SHRA/-SHSN ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN SN OR SN/RA WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NW FLOW WILL DECREASE THIS EVE. GALES REMAIN IN EFFECT TIL 8 FOR
THE PROTECTED WATERS AND TIL MIDNIGHT ON THE OCEAN. SCA COND
LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE NGT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
MON AND MON NGT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MON EVE INTO WED NIGHT DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS LOW PRES
DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SCA LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHERE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR 
WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/24
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/24
HYDROLOGY...24








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