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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251804
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS ANTICIPATED WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAVE
DISSIPATED. LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES..INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

A GUSTY W/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT 
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST 
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL 
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON 
SUNDAY. 

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO 
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. 
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. 

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON 
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING 
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 KT. EXPECT GUSTS INTO
THE UPPER 20 KT TO NEAR 30 KT. 

CIGS COULD BECOME BROKEN FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY LATE MORNING AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA 
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT 
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL 
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL 
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$









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