000
FXUS61 KOKX 241100
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
700 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS 
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND 
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL 
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT 
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
EASTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT. THE FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY SO WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO ADDRESS THIS. 

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A 
250HPA JET AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION. 

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST 
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT 
THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS 
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH THE
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY
THAT EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SEE THE WIND SHIFT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST 
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX 
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE 
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND 
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL 
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE 
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE 
OF THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING 
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY 
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A 
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. 

ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST 
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE 
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING 
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT 
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS 
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON 
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME 
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY 
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO 
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH 
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER 
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT 
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH 
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS 
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.

STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT 
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN 
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF 
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. 
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH. 

DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN 
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD 
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM 
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS 
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST 
THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION BEFORE AROUND 12Z. WINDS THEN VEER
TO THE NW LATER IN THE MORNING AND INCREASE. FOR THE AFTERNOON...NW 
WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT.

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE 
MORNING PUSH. TEMPO OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR ARE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING 
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT 
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN004 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING 
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT 
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL AROUND 
15Z...THEN NORTH OF IT THEREAFTER.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN009 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING 
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT 
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CHC BKN008 AT TIMES BEFORE AROUND 14Z. TIMING 
OF MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. FREQUENT GUSTS MIGHT NOT 
BEGIN UNTIL 18-19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL FROM 11-14Z. TIMING OF 
MVFR MIGHT BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN004 COULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z INSTEAD OF 
TEMPO. IMPROVEMENT TO OTHER FLIGHT CATEGORIES CAN BE AN HOUR OR TWO 
OFF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 20-25KT. 
.SATURDAY...VFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. CHC AM SHOWERS. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW 
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT 
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR THE OCEAN 
WATERS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS 
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY FALL 
JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS ON 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED. 

CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER 
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF RAINFALL WEST...AND
1/4 TO 1/2 INCH EAST...THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FOR THE
MOST PART...SMALL STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

AN ADDITIONAL 1/2-3/4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM
FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ335-338-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-340-
     350.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
     FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV