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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 202152
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
552 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STILL SEEING BKN STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN SHOULD START STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD EVENING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...AND AS A SHOT OF LOW- MID LEVEL WAA AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS...THERE SHOULD BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS LATE
THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE AS MID LEVELS DRY
OUT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE FOCUS
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE...AS NAM/GFS WERE WERE TOO FAR WEST WITH
EXTENT OF ONGOING PRECIP OFF THE DELMARVA...WHILE THE EARLIER
SREF/ECMWF HANDLED THINGS A LITTLE BETTER THERE INITIALLY BUT
STILL FCST SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN/NEAR NYC METRO TONIGHT
INSTEAD OF A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT LATE
BUT MOSTLY AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT HAVE MOVED EAST..
SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND. 
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. 

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF 
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA 
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START 
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF 
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER 
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY 
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL 
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING 
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MOST LIKELY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE CEILINGS DOWN AROUND 
3000-3500 FT THROUGH 21Z AT KLGA/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF.

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE
RESTRICTED IFR TO EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WHERE APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

SSE-SE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT 
KSWF...WHERE WINDS MORE SW-SSW. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY THIS 
AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT 
POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-ESE AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS CONTINUE AS SUCH
SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR...WITH ISOLD -SHRA WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SCA CONDS TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN AS SE FLOW
PERSISTS AND GETS A LITTLE STRONGER. RIGHT NOW THINK WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PASSING TO
THE SE ARRIVE. 

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS 
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS 
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET








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