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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TODAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
WILL BUILD EAST. WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT THE
SFC...WILL EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH 20-25 MPH
GUSTS. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN SETTLES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AS WELL AS
THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

AS THE HIGH TRACKS EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO A COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY IN MOST
SPOTS. HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST...AND
IN THE LOW 60S INLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR
COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUESDAY...TO THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A SOLID CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS THAT
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY...THEN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS THEN WILL
TAPER OF FROM NW TO SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CONSENSUS...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT TUESDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE FAR NE ZONES) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO CORE OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLIDES TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF AND REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z GUIDANCE...AND WOULD NO BRING SOME RAIN IN ON
FRIDAY...WHILE ALL THE LATTER GUIDANCE HAS FRIDAY DRY. IF THE
TRENDS IN THE ECMWF CONTINUE...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AREAS FROM NYC ON W COULD REACH OR JUST GO PAST
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY...RAISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY...THEN SHOULD
BE ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. NOTE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL THAT IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. FOR
FRIDAY...IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT...THEN HIGHS COULD BE AT
LEAST 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH 
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A GUSTY NNW FLOW...SUSTAINED AROUND 10KT 
GUSTS 15-20KT CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY EVENING. THEN WINDS GRADUALLY 
VEER TO NNE-NE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SE WITH SPEEDS 
GENERALLY 5-10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH 
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N 
WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND.
OCNL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ON THE SOUND AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY TODAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
NEW WEEK.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF THIS APPEARS LOWER
THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF
ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MALOIT/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/MPS








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