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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 020531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW
JERSEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY
RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG EARLIER THAN PREDICTED...THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS UPDATED. A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE FOG MAY BRIEFLY
RESTRICT VSBY TO 1/4 MILE.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE 
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS 
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER 
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY 
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 
 
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF 
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT 
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT 
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. 

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME 
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS 
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A 
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI 
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS 
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN 
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN BR AT TERMINALS AWAY FROM
KNYC THROUGH AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

LGT/VRB WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND THEN S WINDS INCREASE TO
5-10 KT DURING THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN BR AWAY FROM
KNYC TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS 
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR  
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS 
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE 
WATERS. 

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH 
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...GC/MET
SHORT TERM...GC/MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GC/MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET/NV



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