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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 230310
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED WELL TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL PA. 
SHOWERS WITH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST...
BUT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED IN INSTABILITY AXIS
JUST TO ITS EAST OVER NE PA. THESE MAY HEAD EAST TO NYC METRO
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...WITH ITS BEST FORCING FROM THESE
AREAS SOUTH INTO NJ AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 

LOWS TONIGHT 45-50 MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GFS LAMP. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN THOUGH WITH
THE PARENT LOW STILL PRETTY STRONG FOR SPRING WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995MB ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS DEEPENS
APPROXIMATELY 5 MB THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NW FLOW DEVELOPS.

THE GUSTY NW FLOW INCREASES TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER LOW
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
DESPITE THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM12 FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...MORE SO AT NIGHT.

ALSO...STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL CREATE
VERTICAL FORCING. HENCE...SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MORE THE
FAR NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMPETING A
CONTINUING DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A WIND 
MACHINE OVER THE REGION THU...WITH DEEP MIXING AND BORDERLINE WIND 
ADVY CONDITIONS THE RESULT. 50 KT WINDS RELEGATED TO AOA H85 PER THE
12Z MODEL DATA...AS A RESULT CAPPED GUSTS AT 45 MPH. DEEP SUBSIDENCE 
SHOULD RESULT IN A COMPLETELY SUNNY DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN ON 
FRI AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES 
WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A WARMER AIR MASS IN 
PLACE. THE ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FLOW AND RETURN SLY FLOW SHOULD 
ACTUALLY KEEP THE S COASTS COOLER THAN THU. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL 
ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD 
SHRA. THE GFS IS THE FASTED AND MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...AND IF 
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CORRECT A COMPLETELY DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED. 
ONLY 20 POPS IN THE FCST ATTM. MODEL TIMING IS BETTER WITH AN UPR 
WAVE AND PERIOD OF LGT RAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT. HIGH CHC POPS FOR 
THIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST AS THE WAVE TRACKS OFFSHORE...SPINNING SOME LGT PCPN 
IN FROM THE N SAT NGT AND SUN. LOW CHC POPS MAINTAINED IN THE FCST 
DUE TO THE GFS CONSISTENCY. FOR MON AND TUE...THE GFS IS COMPLETELY 
DRY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HOWEVER HAS 
BROUGHT THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FURTHER NWD INTO THE 
REGION...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE OVC WX WITH CHCS FOR RAIN. THE FCST 
SIDES WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT DRY SOLNS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z 
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS 03Z THROUGH 07Z. THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10KT OR LESS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO 
NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 
05Z WITH GUSTS 20-25KT. NORTHWEST WIND AND GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE 
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40KT AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON.

  
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED NIGHT...VFR. NW G25-30KT...DIMINISHING AFTER 05Z.
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/EVE -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT-SUN...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND 
WITH A CHC -SHRA AND POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GALES SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT CREATING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS WHERE WINDS ARE BELOW GALES EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU THU WITH LOW PRES S OF THE MARITIMES. 
THE LOW DEPARTS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS FRI. WIND AND SEAS 
COME UP SAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH SCA 
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 
ON SUN WITH NLY FLOW...THEN HIPRES ON MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING DOWN TO 30 PERCENT. THIS
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE SOME ENHANCED
FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS PROMINENT AND PRONOUNCED
AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. PLUS...THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WHICH FURTHER LIMITS FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY.

STRONG NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH AND MIN RH FALLING INTO THE 
TEENS IN SPOTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THU. 
CONSULTATION WITH LAND MANAGERS INDICATES THAT VENTILATION ON WED 
SHOULD PRIME THE FUELS FOR THU...EVEN IF 1/4 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE 
OCCURS THRU TNGT. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 
THE ENTIRE CWA THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAL QPF FOR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT IS 1/10 INCH OF LESS. 

A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FRI NGT AND SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MET/PW
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM






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