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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR 
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS 
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY 
CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT 
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST 
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL 
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON 
SUNDAY. 

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO 
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. 
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. 

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON 
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING 
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NW 5-10 KT INTO THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT 
WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING 
TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA 
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT 
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL 
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL 
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$







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