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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231112
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
712 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MEANDERS S
OF LONG ISLAND TODAY. BANDS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WILL PIVOT
AROUND THE LOW TODAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS LIKELY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFINED IT TO THE AREA
ACROSS EASTERN LI FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. 

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. 

NAM MOS TEMPS LOOKED TOO COOL AND WERE DISCOUNTED. SO A BLEND OF
THE MAV/ECS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI. 

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY 
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING 
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF 
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. 

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND 
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE 
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE 
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT WILL MEANDER TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT.

MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH BRIEF VFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
RAIN IS FORECAST...AND WILL BE TOUGH TO TIME AS RAIN BANDS MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE LOW.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW END VFR...3 TO 5
KFT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS THOUGH WILL HANG
ONTO LOWER CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. THEN GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT.

WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. SPEEDS 15
TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...EXCEPT NYC AND COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...LOW CHANCE MVFR IN BRIEF SHOWERS.
W WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE S OF MONTAUK WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY
TODAY...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
HAVE FALLEN BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS ON THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED THESE ZONES TO AN SCA IN EFFECT
THROUGH 2 AM TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE OCEAN WATERS. 

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE 
TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT RANGE FROM 1/3 INCH FROM THE NYC METRO TO 2/3 INCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH 
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A FEW TIDAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND
THOSE BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND TOUCHED OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDED THEIR MINOR BENCHMARKS LAST EVENING. KINGS POINT
EXPERIENCED A ROUGE TIDAL SURGE OF 3 1/2 FT SHORTLY AFTER HIGH TIDE
WHEN THE WINDS PEAKED AROUND 40KT ON THE SOUND. THIS RESULTED IN
THE TOTAL WATER LEVEL TO REACH 10.2 FT AROUND MIDNIGHT. 

ALTHOUGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AROUND 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A FOOT
HIGHER WITH THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND ARE BACKING TO THE NW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP MOST LOCATIONS BELOW THEIR MINOR FLOODING BENCHMARKS. ITS A
CLOSE CALL THOUGH...AND A FEW PLACES MAY TOUCH AGAIN...THEREFORE
WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. TIDAL
DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 FT IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
AND 1 TO 1 1/4 FT IN WESTERN LI SOUND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...24/MPS
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









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