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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 010523
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD/SKY AND WINDS. 

SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH S OF LONG ISLAND BY
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND ITS PASSAGE...AND
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL A FEW DEGREES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO 
DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND 
NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM 
PERIOD. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE AFTERNOON SEABREEZES ON TUESDAY AS 
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE 
AGAIN TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN 
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 90 ON 
TUESDAY IN NYC.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 
60S AND LOWER 70S. MID 70S ARE EXPECTED IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE 
WED...FOLLOWED BY GLANCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A STRONG NORTHERN 
STREAM UPPER LOW THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 
PHASING THESE ENERGIES WELL EAST OF THE NE US...WITH UPPER RIDGING 
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU. A WEAK 
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY 
WED...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR. STRONGER CANADIAN COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAG SOUTH. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH WED AND THU WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 95 DEGS ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME 
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS 
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A 
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO HIGH KBDI VALUES 
AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE...LOWER 80S TO AROUND 85.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN 
HUMIDITY AND UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW...BUT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KT. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS. 

VFR...EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG AT KSWF TOWARDS DAYBREAK. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 
.TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS 
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE REGION AND 
THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS 
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR  
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT 
ON THE OCEAN...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE 
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV



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