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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 051841
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN BUILDS TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE
NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES IN CT BASED ON CURRENT SNOWFALL
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS.

BACK EDGE OF HVY SNOW BAND IS MVG SE FROM ACROSS CENTRAL NJ NE ACROSS
SE CT...WITH HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PLUS.

AT 18Z/1 PM...5.5 INCHES AT CENTRAL PARK...5.0 INCHES HERE AT THE
NWS OFFICE WITH MORE THAN 4 INCHES AT JFK AND LGA AIRPORTS.

WE ARE ON TRACK FOR A WIDESPREAD 6-8 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW CONTS ACROSS NW NJ WITH A LIGHTER BAND POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM 19Z-21Z.

WILL BE DROPPING ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE AS DRY ARCTIC AIR CONTS TO FILTER SE ACROSS
THIS REGION WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY NEAR ZERO.

DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 20S CAUSING ICING
OF UNTREATED SURFACES.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

SNOW SHOULD END FROM NW TO SSE BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...WITH FRIGID AND
DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...LOWER TEENS NYC
METRO...ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILLS LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE AND WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...EXPECTING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS IN THE NYC METRO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. A SPLIT FLOW THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A FAST ACTIVE 
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE 
SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MEXICO. ZONAL 
H5 FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT.

OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 
40S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE 
NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS 
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE 
APPROACHES THE AREA SAT AND MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT. DOWN SLOPING 
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF 
THE APPALACHIANS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT 
BEST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS ARE INDICATING A WEAK LOW PRES 
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND ON 
SUNDAY. EC IS MUCH WEAKER WITH NO PCPN. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST 
AS PCPN REMAINS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE N WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE 
PRESENT.

FINAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MON. GFS IS SLIGHTLY 
MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT WITH THE VORT MAX PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE 
AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH PCPN DUE TO RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE S. 
EC IS FURTHER N. HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS. 

SW-W FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AT H5...ALTHOUGH LARGE DIFFERENCES 
BECOME PREVALENT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE GFS BECOMES MUCH 
MORE AMPLIFIED WED/THU WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BECOMING PICKED 
UP IN THE FLOW AND PASSING NEAR THE AREA WED. EC IS MUCH FLATTER 
WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.  REMAINING DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS 
POSSIBLY UNTIL MID WEEK. 

TEMPS WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRI NIGHT 
AND LOWER 30S SAT...BUT A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER 30S FOR LOWS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RADAR DATA AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGEST LAST BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL CROSS NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
18-21Z SO WE HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BY AN ADDITIONAL
1-3 HOURS IN TAF. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...BACK EDGE OF SNOW
SHOULD SWING THROUGH REGION BY 00Z AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN AFTER
00Z. KSWF IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...SO MVFR TO VFR
IS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW AROUND 10-12 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

OVERALL...HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH WINDS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH 
CATEGORICAL CHANGES WHICH COULD VARY A FEW HOURS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

EXPECTED RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
KISP...6-8 INCHES.
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB/KGON...4-6 INCHES.
KHPN/KBDR...3-5 INCHES. 
KSWF...1-2 INCHES.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD 
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD 
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD 
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD 
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES COULD 
DIFFER 1-3 HRS FROM OBSERVED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS 
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. 
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS TODAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL 
RUN 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS PREDOMINANT 
TODAY. 

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE 
OCEAN WATERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING MODERATE LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF 
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AS WELL LATE TONIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE 
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/10 TO 7/10 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION TODAY. THIS 
WILL BE FROZEN...SO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 

NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE 
START OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ011-
     012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     CTZ005>010.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ067>071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
     106>108.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-
     004-103>105.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV
EQUIPMENT...






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