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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251503
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
WORKING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THINNING OUT AND
DISSIPATING AS THEY WORK FARTHER EAST. THUS...LOOKING AT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EAST OF NYC...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE
WEST. PARTS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY GO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. 

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY WITH  W/SW WINDS
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING GUSTY BY AFT. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY 
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT 
OF MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST 
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE FRONT. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL 
KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT BREEZY ON 
SUNDAY. 

TONIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO 
AROUND 50...WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. 
DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER STARTS THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. 

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON 
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING 
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NW 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING
10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT
WHILE BACKING TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WIND
FORECAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH END TIME OF GUSTS WHICH COULD LINGER A
FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.

SOME 5000 FT CIGS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR A PERIOD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE SOME LOCATION SEE A
PERIOD OF BKN OR EVEN OVC CONDITIONS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
.SUN-TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON SUN-SUN EVE...HIGHEST NYC METRO.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA TODAY ACROSS THE AREA 
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. A COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT AND THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT 
WILL BE DEEPENING...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL 
PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL 
WATERS AND POSSIBLY SOME GALES ACROSS THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL BE ON A GRADUAL LOWERING TREND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON
MONDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS.
THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC







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