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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 182346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MOVES 
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. 

HEIGHTS RISE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES..INTO QUEBEC.

WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND A NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT CONDITIONS 
WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR FOR 
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AND OFF 
THE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW THEN BECOME NEARLY ZONAL UNTIL 
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE UPPER 
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF SHORE FRIDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. LEANED 
TOWARD THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. MIXING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 900 MB AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS 
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS SOME MOISTURE 
DOES GET TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE INVERSION. WEAK WARM ADVECTION 
BEGINS TO SET UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...AND 
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE.

FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE OCEAN AND AN APPROACHING 
CDFNT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. WARM ALOFT 
BUT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC SHOULD LIMIT MOST PLACES TO THE 70S TO NEAR 
80. WITHOUT THIS ONSHORE COMPONENT...FULL MIXING WOULD PRODUCE 
LOW-MID 80S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO PCPN CHCS. THE 
NAM INDICATES A SLOWER FROPA...WHICH IS GENERALLY A PREFERRED PLAY 
IN THE EXTENDED. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE PCPN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT 
TRACKS EWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS A SLOWER 
ONSET SUN...BUT MAINTAINED CHCS THRU THE NGT EXPECTING THE SHWRS TO 
HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST WITH SCT COVERAGE.

HI PRES THEN BUILDS IN WITH FAIR WX MON INTO TUE. THE NEXT CDFNT 
LATE TUE/TUE NGT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO KEPT A DRY FCST. THERE 
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT OF HIGH BASES AROUND 5K FT.

MAINLY CLR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIPRES BUILDING IN. 

THE 1030S HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NGT...SO MANUALLY DROPPED 
TEMPS AS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO INFLUENCED BY CLIMO. TEMPS OTHERWISE 
A BLEND OF THE GMOS25/MEX/MEN THRU THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AFTER A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME POSSIBLE MVFR STRATUS FRIDAY
BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...SO KEPT COVERAGE TO FEW-SCT.

VARIABLE DIRECTION TO WINDS WHICH ARE LESS THAN 10 KT. THESE
SHOULD ALL TURN N/NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. THE
FLOW INCREASES WHILE GAINING MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...GUST START AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...GUST START
AND END TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.
 
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNCERTAINTY ON TIME WINDS SWITCH TO MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS. FOR FRIDAY...GUST END
TIME COULD VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO 
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL 
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 
NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY 
MORNING. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY 
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH 
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WIND AND SEAS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WIND AND SEAS WILL BE 
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MARGINAL SCA WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND S SHORE BAYS SAT EVE 
WITH SLY FLOW. SCA WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOP BEHIND A CDFNT SUN NGT 
INTO MON. THE HARBOR AND WRN SOUND MAY REMAIN JUST BLW CRITERIA. CHC 
OF SCA WINDS AGAIN BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BASIN AVG
RAINFALL OF LESS THE 1/4 INCH EXPECTED SUN AFTN AND NGT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET









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