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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 192355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
655 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY COVER FCST HAS TO BEEN MORE THAN CHALLENGING THE PAST TWO
DAYS AS MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION TODAY'S THE GRAVITY WAVE) IN THE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 HPA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CLOUDS...STRATO
CU...FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUD COVER FCST WAS BASED ON
NAM LOW LEVEL RH - WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE I
COULD FIND. THUS GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NOTE THE
NARRE- TL SAYS IS SHOULD BE CLEAR AND IS CONSISTENTLY FAILING IN
THIS PATTERN DUE TO UNDERDONE RH IN THE RAP.

TEMPS WERE ADJUST UP ABOVE MOS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS 5 TO 10 KT AND CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY BROKEN ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 03Z AS WIND SUBSIDES
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A MORE RAPID AND STEADY FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM). 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS 
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF 
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED 
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH 
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR 
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE 
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG 
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON 
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE 
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM 
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY 
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN 
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE 
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET 
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE 
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH 
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER 
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM 
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN 
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE 
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12 
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS 
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND 
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.     

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO 
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT 
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO 
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN SCT-BKN 3000-3500 FT
THROUGH 06Z AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY
CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS.

320-350 MAGNETIC WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FOR NYC/NJ
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...VEERING TO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 8 KT ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 025-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING MVFR CIG
FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS LIKELY
VARYING FROM SCT-BKN 030-035. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIKELY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FOR CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS...WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
CITY/COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE 
WINDS 10-20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH 
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING NORTHWEST WIND REMAINS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE AT AT TIME
AT BUOY 44065 APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE WIND BEGINS TO
SUBSIDE AFTER 03Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.
ALSO...WITH THE STRONGER WIND SEAS ON THE OCEAN RUNNING 1/2 TO 1
FOOT HIGHER THAN FORECAST AND WERE RAISED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS 
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. 
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...MET/TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW









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