Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 060249
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES PASS TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 
FORECAST UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPS/DEW POINTS/SKY/ AND POP TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS. SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE COVERED
ROADS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENT UNDER THE NWS WEB PAGE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY.

OTHERWISE...AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EAST TOWARD
THE AREA...NW WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
OF 0 TO 15 DEGREES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF AROUND 0 DEGREES
AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY
OF OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
CURRENT RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 6.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...IN THE MID 20S AND 15-20 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL ON FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A SERIES 
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW 
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY POPS WILL BE CONFINED 
TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF NYC. 

ANOTHER WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A 
THIRD WAVE LATE MONDAY...HOWEVER THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF POPS 
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST 
FOR NOW. 

THE REGION IS THEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S 
SATURDAY. A MODERATION WILL THEN COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS 
ALOFT GRADUALLY RISE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW HAS ENDED...AND VFR CONDS NOW IN PLACE AND EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. 

N/NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO
5-10 KT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LGT/VRB LATE FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA LEVELS FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST UNTIL 11 AM FRIDAY AS WELL.

SUB SCA CONDS RETURN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT IN THE WAKE 
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRES. OTHERWISE...SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
HOWEVER...TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S MAY RESULT IN THE START
OF ICE BREAK UP ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MARCH 6

EWR......12/2007 
BDR......11/2007 
NYC.......6/1872 
LGA......14/2007
JFK......13/2007
ISP......12/2007

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO WEEKLY TEST WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY BETWEEN
11 AM AND NOON DUE TO ON GOING HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy