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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160221
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL IVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS AND
WEAKEN TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ADJUSTED TEMPS AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN OFF A BIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO
THICKEN. THIS IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 
40S TO AROUND 50 HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING.

CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HAVE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.

LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS...YIELDING A RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. 

POPS INCREASE LATE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WENT WITH COVERAGE
WORDING AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NUMEROUS NEAR NYC AND N/W
BUT MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONSISTENT TREND OF BREAKING UP AND
LOWERING THE QPF AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING QUICKLY SO THE FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE LOST AND THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL WEAKEN...LEAVING
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER
ON TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL CONDITIONS MAY END UP DRYING OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS...SO THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS MOISTURE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NEAR.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WERE A BLEND OF 2/3 NAM12 AND 1/3
GMOS...ACCOUNTING FOR LOWER TEMPS DUE TO WET GROUND FROM
RAINFALL...ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO GO INTO THE EVAPORATION
OF WATER. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKEN
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND WITH A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECREASING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
HOWEVER...THEY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR.
WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHICH YIELD A RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

THERE IS LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY...BUT DUE TO AN
INCREASING SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOURD...THIS COULD BE
ELEVATED TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 
FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND NO 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON 
THURSDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE TROUGH 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES. 
CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WED-THU NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL DROP 
VALUES INTO THE 40S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S 
ELSEWHERE. 

NAM/MOSGUIDE BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A 
MOSGUIDE/WPC BLEND THEREAFTER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS 
FORECAST OVERALL WITH TEMPS.

TEMPS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES SAT-MON AS HEIGHTS RISE AHEAD
OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 20/00Z ECMWF RUN WAS AN 
OUTLIER IN RELATION TO PRECIP ON SATURDAY. 20/12Z HAS COME INTO LINE 
WITH THE GFS/CMC LENDING TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WELL 
TO THE WEST WILL BE APPROACHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WITH A 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN 
AHEAD THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT A PARTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. LIGHT S-SW FLOW 
CONTINUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE 
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL BE 
LIGHT...AND EXPECTING VFR CONDS IN ANY -RA THAT DEVELOPS. 

WINDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...WINDS VEER TO THE NW AT 6-8 KT BEFORE BACKING TO THE W-SW 
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW...HAVE LOW 
CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS COULD 
RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 260 TO 320 MAG.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE-E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EVEN WITH INCREASING SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS 
WED-SAT WITH MAINLY SUB SCA CRITERIA EXPECTED. WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW 
PASSING TO THE EAST...SWELLS INCREASE WED WITH OCEAN SEAS POSSIBLY 
REACHING 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS WELL...WINDS INCREASE 
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD ONCE AGAIN RISE 
AGAIN TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/LN
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JM/LN
HYDROLOGY...JM/LN






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