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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281120 AAB
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY...REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT
RECENT OBSERVATIONS. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE TODAY WITH SEASONABLE 
TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE AS DEW POINTS IN 
THE 50S ARE FORECAST. A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WITH AN OTHERWISE SUNNY SKY CONDITION TODAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD 
COVER...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE USUAL COOL SPOTS 
WILL DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH A SLOWER FALL NEAR URBAN 
CENTERS. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE LOWER 
AND MIDDLE 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S EXPECTED CLOSER 
TO THE COAST AND READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S IN THE NYC/NJ 
METRO. 

RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. 
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING 
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SUB 
TROP RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THE 
BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE PASSES OFFSHORE ON MON. A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY 
GET CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT 
TO THE LOCAL WEATHER. IT COULD POSSIBLY BE A FACTOR IN THE STEERING 
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION. 

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY. ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE 
DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO 
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP 
LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR 
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS 
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO COME 
UP WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 
THE TAF PERIOD.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND...BACKS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND
AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA 
BREEZE MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA 
BREEZING MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINAL...AROUND OR JUST AFTER 22Z. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE 
WEST DURING THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH 
THE TERMINAL. 

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL HAVE THE WIND BACK TO THE 
WEST DURING THE DAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE SEA BREEZE MOVES THROUGH 
THE TERMINAL. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE 
MOVING THROUGH. IF THE SEA BREEZE DOES DEVELOP WILL BE 21Z TO 22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE SEA 
BREEZE MOVING INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY AT
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS 5 TO 10 KT ON 
THE OCEAN AND AROUND 5 KT ON THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. SEAS ON THE 
OCEAN WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT AND AROUND 1 FT OR LESS ON THE 
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS. 

WITH A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...CAN EXPECT MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY.
THE EXCEPTION COULD BE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND THE MOUTH
OF NY HARBOR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL 25 KT WIND GUSTS LATE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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