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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY NW FLOW TODAY IN CAA. DEEP MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE (UPPER 70S INTERIOR...LOWER 80S TO 85
COAST). WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT
UNLIKELY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN INSTABILITY CU...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR...UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS IT DRIFTS
SE OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

MAIN STORY WILL BE SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL RESULTING IN HIGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. SEE TIDES AND
COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING 
IN ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN 
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED 
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS...LOWER 60S NYC/NJ METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD WITH TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE LIKELY. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE 
WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY 
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE 
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK IN ON 
MONDAY...KEEPING THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A MORE 
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL FINALLY SEND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY 
NIGHT. FLOW APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. 

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY 
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 
80S DUE TO ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY...THERE 
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO THE 
LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S 
AND LOWER 70S. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...BUT CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS/STORMS A LITTLE LOWER WITH RIDGING ALOFT. ANOTHER WARM 
AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
80S. THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SHORTWAVE BRINGS A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT 
CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AIR 
AND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
VFR EXPECTED. NW FLOW...DIRECTION MAINLY RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES
MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT...SUBSIDES EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-E WINDS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING S-SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CATEGORY FORECAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST. WIND GUST DURATION COULD BE +/- 1-2 HRS
FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAINING ABV 5 FT INTO TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS PEAK
AROUND 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
AROUND AREA INLETS. A FEW NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE...BUT
MAINLY UP TO 20 KT EXPECTED.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH S/SSE 
SWELLS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING. DECREASING PROB OF SCA OCEAN SEAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 
MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY 
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW 
SCA LEVELS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
FORECASTED THROUGH SUNDAY. 

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LONG PERIOD S/SSE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...PEAKING SURF AT
GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY 8 TO 10 FT. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR BEACH EROSION AND LOCALIZED WASH-OVERS
WILL BE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TIDE. THE ACCOMPANYING
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT.
SURF GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TONIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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