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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 172358
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
658 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST 
EMERGES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK 
SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE 
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING BACK
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKE. THIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BY LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS...EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SHOULD
HAVE JUST ENOUGH FORCING FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FLURRIES ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES AS
MOISTURE COULD EXTEND JUST DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY FOR THURSDAY. WENT 
WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON MIXING TO 900MB 
AND A MODERATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS
NIGHT IS AN EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WARMER
MAV MOS ONCE AGAIN WAS USED FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF...ARE IN 
AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM THAT
TAKES A TRACK WEST OF THE AREA. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...THERE ARE
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST...WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ONE OF THESE WAVES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. THE LATTER OF WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN
TAKING THE LOW THE FARTHEST NORTH...WHILE THE GGEM AND GFS ARE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. PREFERENCE THOUGH IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE LAST 24H...SO LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF.
THIS ALL SPELLS OUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE
SAT NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY
WARM WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...PRIMARILY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE 
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH A MID 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST ON SUN
AND TAKES A TRACK SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUE. A MUCH MORE ROBUST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH PRESSURES APPROACHING 960 MB. THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND EVEN STRONG WINDS. THE CAVEAT
HERE IS THAT THE STORM IS ABOUT A WEEK AWAY WITH A LOT OF TIME FOR
CHANGE IN TRACK AND TIMING. IN ADDITION...THE FAST PAC FLOW WOULD
LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ENERGY.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND START OFF AT NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS AND THEM 
MODERATE BY MID WEEK. HIGHS NEAR 50 ON WED COULD BE UNDERDONE IF THE 
PATTERN AND STORM TRACK PANS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THU.

AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW...SCT-
BKN 040-050 CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.

ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NYC METRO TERMINALS THROUGH 01Z AND KGON
THROUGH 02Z. THEN ISOLD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS.

WINDS GENERALLY 290-330 MAGNETIC THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
TO NEAR 15-20G25-30KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS...AFTER 05-07Z
AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS. THESE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DECREASE BETWEEN 10-12Z OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS...THEN PICK UP AFTER 14Z-15Z. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 290 TO 320 MAGNETIC ON
THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 300 TO 330
MAGNETIC ON THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS WILL WAVER BTWN 290 TO 320 MAGNETIC ON
THU...BUT SHOULD AVERAGE JUST LEFT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH SAT...
.THU NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE EVENING. GUSTS THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS.
.FRI-SAT...VFR. 
.SAT NIGHT...VFR TO START...THEN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT PRECIP...RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS...SNOW AT KSWF...AND RAIN OR
SNOW KHPN.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT PRECIP CHANGING TO 
RAIN THROUGHOUT. 
.MON...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A GUST OR TWO UP TO
35 KT OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SAT-MON AS HIGH PRES PASSES
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON MON WITH A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING NE
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT 
INTO TUE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL 
EVENT LATE TUE INTO WED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN/NV
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW









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