000
FXUS61 KOKX 241741
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS 
THE AREA...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND 
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL 
THEN LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
THEN BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT 
WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH A WEIGHTED 3/4 12Z NAM12 AND 1/4
LAV SOLUTION TO REPRESENT A COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DEWPOINTS ALSO INCORPORATED AN EVEN BLEND OF 12Z NAM12 AND LAVS.
THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO WORDING WAS
ADJUSTED TO SHOW INTERMITTENT WITH SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE ISOLATED AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN MOST SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM WEST 
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT 
THE DAY TODAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. WITH
THE FRONT MOVEMENT...EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE THE WIND
SHIFT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT NORTH 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST 
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. MAX 
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE 
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND 
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY FALL 
THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE 
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL WITH THE PASSAGE 
OF THE FRONT.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES OF LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST WITH A SURFACE LOW PASSING 
EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MOVES OVER THE AREA...A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY 
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS TO MORE OF A 
STRATIFORM RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POPS 
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. 

ONCE AGAIN...FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S...WITH THE WARMEST 
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE 
COOLEST ACROSS THE WESTERN. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR FILTERING 
IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL REASONABLY CLOSE IN THEIR INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT 
OF THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY NE THIS 
WEEKEND. LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ONCE AGAIN ON 
SATURDAY. N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD BECOME 
RATHER BRISK BY SAT AFTERNOON...FALLING JUST SHY OF ADVISORY 
CRITERIA AT 15-25 MPH WITH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH INTO 
EARLY SAT EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH 
EITHER. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OVER 
ERN CT/LONG ISLAND VIA SOME ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AS DRY SLOT 
PUNCHES IN FROM THE SW. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW WITH 
LOW CONFIDENCE. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS 
ONLY 55-60 AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S SAT NIGHT.

STEADY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY SAT NIGHT 
AS THE LOW PULLS E OF NEW ENGLAND...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY/ISOLD IN 
NATURE ON SUNDAY VIA CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PASSAGE OF 
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES PINWHEELING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. 
STILL COOL AND BREEZY ON SAT WITH HIGHS ONLY UPPER 50S/LOWER 
60S...AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH. 

DRY WX AND A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN 
FORECAST MON-WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS. TEMPS ON THU SHOULD 
RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM 
FRONT...WHICH COULD BRING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS 
MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT OVER ERN LI AND CT TRACKS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTN. 

WINDS VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THIS AFTN. SUSTAINED NEAR 20
KT TNGT...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30. GUSTS MAY ONLY BE OCNL
HOWEVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS INDICATED IN TAFS.

SUSTAINED NW WINDS NEAR 25 KT SAT. PEAK GUSTS MAY EXCEED 35 KT. 

AREAS OF IFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CIGS GENERALLY AROUND 2K FT. SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL...WITH A STEADIER RAIN INVOF KSWF. CIGS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 1500 FT WITH ANY SHRA IN THE CITY.

-RA TNGT AND MVFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT ABV MVFR LVLS ON
SAT. 

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GS IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
ALTHOUGH TOPS WILL BE BLW 20K FT...ISOLD LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 4SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM IF HEAVIER SHRA
DEVELOP NEAR THE ARPT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY OVER THE
OCEAN ALLOWS FOR 1K FT CIGS TO LINGER.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT AFTN...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR. SHOWERS. NW GUSTS
AROUND 35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MRNG. NW GUSTS 30-35KT. FCST
MAY CHANGE IF DEPARTURE OF STORM SLOWS.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG CONTINUES WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1 MILE. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 1PM. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ON THE
CENTRAL OCEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
EXPECTING THE FOG TO BREAK UP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
GREATER NW WINDS TOWARDS MID AFTERNOON.

SCA REMAINS UP FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LINGERING SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL DURING PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NON-OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW 
ENGLAND...SHOULD STRENGTHEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SAT 
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...HAVE WENT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS MAY
FALL JUST SHORT OF GALES. IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SMALL CRAFT IS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GALES MAY BE NEEDED.

CONDITIONS FALL BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER 
OFF ON THE OCEAN AND THEN ERN SOUND/BAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE VIA BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST REMAINING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN RAIN
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH FOR SOME EASTERN SECTIONS. FOR THE MOST PART...SMALL
STREAM LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED...WITH ONLY MINOR RISES EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AROUND 0.2-0.3 OF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT - WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DO DECREASE
TO UNDER 1 INCH BY LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF MINOR
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

BASIN AVG QPF OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH EXPECTED SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...THEN
ONLY MINIMAL QPF IN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ335-338-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     340-350.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT 
     FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...NV