Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 220550
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
150 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND SLIDE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD. PORTIONS OF NE NJ...NYC METRO CONTINUE TO OBSERVE
THESE SHOWERS AS THEY DRIFT SE. ISOLATED THUNDER STILL POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER SRN CT AND LI WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST.

ALL THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW THAT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE NW...PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE 60S DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AS RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE RIDES A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIPPING SOUTH FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND EXACTLY WHERE IT FORMS. ONCE
AGAIN...HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT ROUNDS THE 
TROUGH...SO MAINTAINING THE HIGHER CHC POPS THERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH THE THINKING THAT THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL WORK TO STABILIZE THE ATMO AND MINIMIZING THE CHC FOR
SHOWER FORMATION. 12Z MODEL SUITE ALSO SUGGESTS THE STRONGER
FORCING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTN INTO TOMORROW EVENING...KEEPING THE BULK OF THAT
ASSOCIATED PCPN EAST OF THE AREA. 

FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...CLEARING BY 06Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
NUDGES SOUTH. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING
INJECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY THE EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE AGAIN WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS
WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE H5 PATTERN ACROSS NOAM AT THE 
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE SE CONUS WITH A 
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN US A SLOWLY WEAKENING BLOCKING PATTERN 
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE 
OVER QUEBEC WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND MERGE WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE US. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DIGGING 
TROUGH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. 

SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING OF VORT ENERGY 
TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON SAT...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD 
MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF SAT DRY WITH JUST 
A SCHC OF SHOWERS EARLY. THERE COULD BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS 
DURING THE AFTN IF THERE ARE ANY WEAKNESSES ALOFT...BUT CANNOT 
PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW 
CHC POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TIMING 
DIFFERENCES. ADDITIONALLY...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ON SAT IS 
ALSO QUESTIONABLE AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY SEASONABLE CONDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE ONCE THE TROUGH DEPARTS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL 
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY INTO TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ELY FLOW CONTRIBUTING  
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH THIS TIME...BUT WITH HEIGHTS 
RISING TUE THROUGH THU...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL 
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE PASSES THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG.
HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS S AND E THRU 12Z. MAINLY
MVFR...HOWEVER AREAS OF VFR NE OF THE CITY WITH LESS RAIN
COVERAGE.

TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MRNG. 

CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT TODAY...SO BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
IS VERY POSSIBLE. SOLID MVFR APPEARS LIKELY TNGT.

SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION DUE TO THE RAIN THRU
7-8Z...BECOMING AROUND 100 TRUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SLIGHT BACKING TO AROUND 080 TRUE EXPECTED TNGT. SPEEDS GENERALLY
BLW 12KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.TNGT...MVFR WITH ENE FLOW.
.SAT...BECOMING VFR WITH ENE FLOW.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. 

SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS SAT WITH A 
MODERATE ELY FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS SEAS JUST BLO SCA 
LEVELS...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE A FOOT OR SO 
HIGHER. SUB-ADVSY CONDS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN INTERIOR NE NJ AND INTO
PARTS OF NYC. ONLY EXPECT MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES AT
MOST.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JC/SEARS/PW
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...24/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...24/SEARS










National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy