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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 192057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
457 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ON MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN SE SURFACE FLOW.

SUBSIDENCE ALOFT (ABOVE 850 HPA) AND STRATUS ALONG THE JERSEY
COAST AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS OF 19Z. WITH THE FLOW GOING SE
THIS EVENING...BELIEVE THE STRATUS EXPANDS TO THE NW. THIS IDEA IS
SUPPORTED IN THE SIMULATED 10.3-3.9 UM NSSL ARW WRF IMAGERY AND IN
THE NARRE TIME LAG. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF THE STRATUS...BUT BELIEVE THIS SHOULD FOCUS IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH THE EASTERN PORTION MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY.

WITH WATER TEMPS NEAR 70...DO NOT BELIEVE FOG IS AN ISSUE...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. 

TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRATUS AND ITS TIMING. HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO MOS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUDS.

THINK LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM RADIATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POSITIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. MORNING CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SUN BY AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH IN THE MAX TEMPS WITH NAM MOS A GOOD 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN GFS. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF SUN...HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE
NAM AND GFS MOS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SOME FOG
ALONG THE COAST. WITH OCEAN TEMPS STILL NEAR 70 THOUGH...DID NOT
INCLUDE THE FOG IN THE FORECAST. WHILE SOME DETERMINISTIC 12Z RUNS
(NAM, CMC GEM) SUGGEST MEASURABLE PCPN...MEASURABLE QPF IN THE
SREF IS ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT. THUS USED SLIGHT POPS (LIGHT RAIN)
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT DID GO WITH DRIZZLE (ALL
AREAS) AS NWP PROFILES SUGGEST MOISTURE TO 700 HPA AS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LIFTS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
FACING BEACHES SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FORECASTS OF THE 
MASS FIELDS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY SHOW LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST THEN MOVING NE AS IT IS PICKED UP BY THE 
APPROACHING DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE. THERE ARE 
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH 
WILL IMPACT THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS OFFSHORE LOW. AT THIS 
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT WILL BE MOST 
VULNERABLE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.

ADDITIONALLY...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IF ADEQUATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...A FEW 
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WEST AND NORTH OF NYC LATE IN THE 
DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOL CANADIAN HIGH 
PRESSURE WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SE FLOW AROUND 5-10 KT TONIGHT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASES A FEW KTS SATURDAY.

VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 07Z TONIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH CEILINGS 2KFT TO 3KFT. SATURDAY MORNING CEILINGS
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AND THEN BECOME UNLIMITED WITH SCATTERED CU.
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT.

 
    NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD VARY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR FROM FORECAST. TIMING OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE COULD VARY 30 MINUTES
TO 1 HOUR FROM FORECAST. TIMING OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF MVFR COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM
FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MARGINAL VFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IN 
FOG/CLOUDS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY IFR AFTER 04Z WITH DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS 
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF MARGINAL VFR IN SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. 
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED TO BELOW 25 KT ON THE OCEAN...BUT SEAS ARE
STILL AT 5 FT AT 44017 AND 44025. THUS THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL AROUND 10 PM. SE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
ON THE OCEAN.

WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. 

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE CAUSING SEAS 
TO BUILD...APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 
FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SW WINDS 15-20 KT SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW BY SUNRISE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

INCREASING EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD AS 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 
AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JM/MET
MARINE...GC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GC/TONGUE







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