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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160553
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
153 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH CAPE COD EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. RAIN WAS TRANSITIONS
TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING AS THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT MIDNIGHT THE SNOW WAS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NEAR BDR TO JUST WEST OF ISLIP. AND THE SNOW WAS
ENDING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC
COUNTY. FORECAST POPS AND PRECIP TYPE ON TRACK. UPDATED WIND AND
TEMPERATURES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO 
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S 
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY. 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED 
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH 
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON 
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON 
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. 

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY 
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS...AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR AS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY
08Z...CONDS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. NW WINDS...320-350 TRUE...WILL RANGE
FROM 15-20 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE N. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FOOT TO 2 FEET BELOW FORECAST
VALUES...SO LOWERED SEAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT.

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. 
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS 
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS. 
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE 
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JMC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
CLIMATE...








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