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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210752
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA TODAY...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. THAT LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
SATURDAY...THEN CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES DEEPENS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE DELMARVA AREA AND SLOWLY TRACKS TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY. 

CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BUT NOT
MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT WOULD
EXPECT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TEMPS COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF PARTS OF THE CWA BECOME DRY SLOTTED
AND SKIES BREAK UP AND THE SUB POPS OUT FOR A BRIEF TIME. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OVER
WESTERN ZONES AS THE LOW DEEPENS. RAIN THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE DELMARVA...AND
BECOMES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SFC LOW. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON WEDNESDAY AS
THAT LOW MEANDERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.

MUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED WITH THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SHORTWAVE. UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WILL KICK OUT
EASTERN TROUGH...RESULTING IN RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SOME MODEL PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
REGARD TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE. GENERALLY EXPECT SFC LOW JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WED NIGHT TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
BETWEEN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE RAIN WED
NIGHT...WITH LOW CATEGORICAL POPS OR LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY AS
THE STACKED LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT. BANDED PRECIP
LIKELY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE QPF MOST LOCATIONS.

SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOTED CLOSER TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW...OR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER
NAM/GFS. WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED BY THESE MODELS AS
WELL. CANNOT RULE THUNDER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION.

DRY WEATHER EVENTUALLY RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS.

DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...TEMPS LIKELY REBOUND
CLOSER TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY COULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHILE TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO WARM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK IN SW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN 
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEW YORK...PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO 
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD LEADING TO LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. TRIED TO PINPOINT A
DIRECTION...BUT DIRECTIONS COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE UNTIL THE
LOW TRACKS TO THE S OF THE AREA AND A NE FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
DEVELOPS THIS EVE.

CONDS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...BUT COULD SEE
ISOLD MVFR IN ANY RAIN THAT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER ANY OF THE
TERMINALS. SPEAKING OF RAIN...TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE BUT
DO NOT EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PCPN AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT KSWF. AM PROBABLY TOO EARLY IN STEADY -RADZ
BEGINNING AT 23Z TONIGHT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE IN
SUBSEQUENT TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS DEVELOPING WITH SCT LIGHT
RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN RAIN. NLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KT G20-25KT.
.FRI...IMPROVING CONDS. NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
.SAT..VFR. NW G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHED SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING. WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SE LATE THIS MORNING...AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THEN. 

OTHERWISE...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND
SCA CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SCA DUE TO
SCA THAT IS UP FOR THIS MORNING. 

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WED NIGHT WILL TURN TOWARD THE N/NW THURSDAY AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS PERSIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BACK TO THE WEST LATE SAT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY. WESTERLY FETCH THOUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN
HIGHER SEAS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OR SO THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN INCREASES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH QPF LIKELY.
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. 

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IS SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD
NOT RESULT IN ANY SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING
ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS 
     MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW






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