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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 300624
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
224 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES WITHIN THE AREA BY MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK
IN FROM THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT...ENDING UP OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WAS SOME FOG ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. THE NAM AND GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WILL PREFER A MORE MIXED SCENARIO AND
AS A RESULT HAVE GONE WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.

LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK BY AFTN/EVE.

TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS25 AND MET...50/50 DURING THE DAY AND
70/30 MET AT NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF
STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODELS KEEP
SHRTWV ENERGY W OF THE CWA THRU THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...HAVE
KEPT THE FCST DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LIFT. TEMPS A BLEND OF THE
GMOS25 AND MET...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LARGE SCALE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID
LEVELS IS A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT AT
500MB STAYS MAINLY BETWEEN 582 AND 590DM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE JET STREAM WILL BE STAYING NORTH OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE
TIME AS WELL.

ONE DEPARTURE FROM THESE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS IS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE JET POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO PLACE OUR REGION WITHIN THE RIGHT
REAR QUAD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE A TIMEFRAME FOR ENHANCED LIFT. LOOKING AT HEIGHT FIELDS...A
SMALLER SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT AS A SLIGHT UNDULATION COMPARED TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN...MOVES NEAR SUNDAY AND EAST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE
STARTING ON SUNDAY. THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE LOSING STRENGTH WITH TIME AS
IT MOVES IN...WITHOUT A STRONG PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND
THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATIONS OF HEIGHT FIELDS ALOFT.

THE TROUGH MOVES IN MONDAY AND WEAKENS WITHOUT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE OF WIND DIRECTION. WE WILL STILL HAVE OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE...NOT TOO STRONG OVER THE LOCAL REGION. SO THE AREA WILL
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION. A LITTLE STRONGER
PARENT LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA NEAR THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH FOR
LATER NEXT FRIDAY.'

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTION TAPERS 
DOWN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY NIGHT. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM CHARACTERISTICS...30-35 KT 
BULK 0-6KM SHEAR FOR SUNDAY CONVEYED BY FORECAST MODELS. MODELS 
FORECAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DAYTIME 
HEATING. LESS SHEAR MONDAY BUT NEARLY THE SAME MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT.

A REMARKABLE WARMING TREND SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND 
INTO THE NEW WEEK. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. FOR 
HIGHS...AROUND 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES WELL INTO THE 
80S FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOWS GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TOUGH FORECAST INTO THE MORNING. MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE FEW-SCT MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISP FOR
NOW WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. 09Z TAFS
WILL ADDRESS FURTHER...BUT 06Z OBS CAME IN WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 3K FT (BKN AT KJFK) SO MAY NEED TO AMEND SOONER.

HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KGON/KSWF AFT 08Z.

S WINDS INCREASE AFT 12Z. GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AFT 16Z...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS JUST YET. WILL ALSO ADDRESS FURTHER IN 09Z
TAFS. MVFR CIGS/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD
OFF TILL SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
.WED-THU...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT NGT. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FETCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY
FOR SEAS ARE FORECAST AS SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN. WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK SO CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO SUB SCA LEVELS BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. LAYER PW OF AROUND 2 INCHES WITH FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY AND INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN WHICH WOULD VARY FROM MINOR AND POOR DRAINAGE TO POSSIBLY
FLASH FLOODING. ANY FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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