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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210502
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
102 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES WHERE A QUICK QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. 

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY 07Z-08Z

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND. 
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS. 

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF 
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA 
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START 
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF 
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER 
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY 
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL 
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING 
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT PASSES SUN NGT.

MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TNGT. HAVE RESTRICTED IFR TO
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE APPEARS
BEST CHANCE OF -SHRA AND/OR DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL BUT GON BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT SUN NGT...BUT MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ATTM.

SE-ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND TERMINALS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SE FLOW CONTINUES SUN MRNG...THEN VEER TO THE
SW IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NGT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS 
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS 
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET






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