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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220530
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT THEN MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY RIDE
ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW
POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE 
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS 
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.  
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER 
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD 
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE 
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS 
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST 
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO 
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE 
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR 
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE 
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 
THIS MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK MOVING IN LATE AFT/EVE.
BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AT LESS THAN 5 KT THRU EARLY MORNING...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z. GUSTS LOST BY 00Z
SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. 
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY 
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT 
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD 
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE 
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE 
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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