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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 171811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST DURING THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THEN LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST UPDATE WITH MAIN CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY.
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NYC...CENTRAL NASSAU...WESTERN
SUFFOLK AND PORTIONS OF NE NJ. THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
SEABREEZE...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES THERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. 

OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY. GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES - WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FORECAST. 

FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 950-900 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. EXPECT READINGS TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z/17 MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO TREND TO THE DRIER SIDE NOW WITH 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SAT...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF 
FORCING TO THE NORTH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 
REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH ONLY LIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN 
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE TAPERED 
POPS BACK FRI NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING GENERALLY
OFFSHORE...AND JUST TOUCHING THE EASTERN END OF LONG
ISLAND...WHILE REMOVING POPS THEN ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS
AND TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA THEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY...KEEPING THE DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE EAST TUES-WED. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS MON
NIGHT...WITH ONLY INCLUDING SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING A VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH CENTRAL
NY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUES-TUES NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
ALOFT AND THE COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. COULD SEE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION INTO WED MORNING AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THE
PASSING LOW OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THE WAKE WHILE
BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF WED AND THURS.

WILL SEE INCREASING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
STRONG SURGE OF WAA WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

A SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INLAND OVER NYC TERMINALS.
AFTER 02Z WINDS SHOULD BECOME E AGAIN AND THEN DIMINISH TO 8-12
KT AFT 02Z FRIDAY.

MAINLY VFR. CLOUD REMNANTS FROM SEA BREEZE PRODUCING OVC CONDITIONS
ACROSS CITY TERMINALS AOB 4THSD FT. ALSO WATCHING AREAS OF STRATUS
OFF LONG ISLAND AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FOR ANY SIGNS OF MOVING
INLAND. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAFS BECAUSE OF INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFT 02Z-05Z FRIDAY BUT MAY BE EARLIER DEPENDING
ON TRENDS. CIGS SHOULD SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON GUSTS..POTENTIAL UP TO
20KT. DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS DEPENDING ON TRENDS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WINDS 15-20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. 
WIND DIRECTION BACKING TO 090-110 MAG AFT 02Z. WATCHING STRATUS
OFFSHORE AND MAY AMEND FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS SCOUR OUT LATE FRIDAY MORNING. 
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS
WIND GUSTS STRUGGLE TO REACH 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
UP FOR THE OCEAN WHERE GUSTS ARE REACHING 25 KT AND SEAS ARE
AROUND 6-7 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
REMAINS UP THROUGH FRIDAY.

GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FEATURE AND ONLY
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS PASSING SE OF THE WATERS. SEAS INITIALLY
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FRI NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 5 FT BY SAT MORNING. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD BACK TO
AROUND 5 FT SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING 
IN POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE 
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&


.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081-
     177-179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NYZ069-070.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ104-106-108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM 1 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NJZ004-103-105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS
CLIMATE...








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