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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 130215
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1015 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...SFC
TEMPS ARE COOLING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EARLIER FORECAST. INCREASED
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP BY AROUND 2 DEGREES AREA WIDE AND MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY COOLING RATE.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...OFFSETTING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL...COLDER
THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. 
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PCPN CHANCES FROM THIS SYSTEM DO
NOT BEGIN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PCPN DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM 
AND DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPE...BUT PERHAPS A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AT THE ONSET. THE BIGGER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS 
TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS WILL STILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE THE 
RAIN STARTS...AND FOR HOW LONG. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY THE 
NORTHERNMOST ZONES WOULD BE AFFECTED. A BLEND OF NAM AND MAV 
MOS...WHICH OFTEN HAS A WARM BIAS IN THESE SITUATIONS...HAS 
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING HERE LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT 
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE NO STRONG WARM 
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SNOW PACK 
AROUND. THERE IS THEREFORE A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT ICE 
ACCUMULATION. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING 
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZING RAIN 
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES AS THE EVENT WOULD BEGIN LATE 
IN THE THIRD PERIOD...AND ANOTHER RUN OF MODEL DATA CAN BE EVALUATED 
BY THE NIGHT SHIFT. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PLAIN RAIN.

A BLEND OF MAV AND NAM MOS WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 
SHORT TERM. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY BELOW NORMAL...AND TEMPERATURES RISING 
SLIGHTLY OR REMAINING NEARLY STEADY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE 
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A 
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 
MID TO UPPERS 40S WITH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S 
INLAND AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. 

THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS A 
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA...OTHERWISE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. 
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 
TO UPPER 40S WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY 
MORNING AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TUESDAYS DAY TIME 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH NIGHT TIME 
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE 
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO THE N AND BECOME 
LIGHT FOR CITY TERMINALS...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR ALL OTHER 
TERMINALS. 

THESE LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY 17-18Z 
FRIDAY...REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...IFR CONDS LIKELY. RAIN...POSSIBLY BEGINNING 
AS FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF LATE FRI NIGHT. 
.SUN...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. 
.SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR.
.TUE...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST NEAR TERM FORECAST
TRENDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

NOTE THAT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE
OCEAN AND EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS A 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES THE REGION. THE CENTER PASSES 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE 
DAY...AND SHIFTING ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE 
SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL AT 10 KT OR LESS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AHEAD OF LOW 
PRESSURE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL POSSIBLE SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY...WINDS BECOME 
NORTHERLY AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVEL AND 
REMAIN BELOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY BUILD BACK TO SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL ON TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER FRONT PASSES ACROSS 
THE AREA WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. 

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREA BASINS WITH 
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO NEAR AN INCH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO RUNOFF FROM FORECASTED
RAINFALL. RIVER AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
BANK FULL...BUT ICE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND MOVE POSSIBLY
CAUSING ICE JAMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT THE POTENTIAL  
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/JC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GC/JC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...JC/FIG







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