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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 160239
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH THEN LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED BLOCK ISLAND AT 935 PM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SWITCHING INTO WINTER WEATHER MODE WITH CHANGEOVER ONGOING ACROSS
ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES. COOP REPORTED A CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW WITH A COATING AT W MILFORD NJ...WITH OTHER REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SNOW INTO MUCH OF NJ AND THE HUDSON VALLEY W OF THE RIVER.

RADAR INDICATES ADDITIONAL MDT TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE DC
AREA NORTHWARD INTO NJ. AS A RESULT...UPPED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE W. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ELEVATION FAVORED EVENT...WITH
THE HIGHEST SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES...AND THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS PERHAPS LESS THAN AN INCH. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES FOR
ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE WITH THE
UPDATE.

BECAUSE 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD AND CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME...NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

SLOWED THE ENDING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE
SLOWER TREND INDICATED BY RADAR...SUPPORTING THE SLOWER 18Z NAM
SOLN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND FREEZING. THUS...
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ALSO INCLUDE NYC...LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO MOST OF NE NJ AND
ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER. BASED ON THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS...USED
MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR LOWS...WHICH WAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED WITH AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S...WHICH IS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFT...MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

WED NIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER POSSIBLE RECORD COLD NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 
REGION WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY SHIFTS INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN SETS UP AN EAST TO 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SERVES TO 
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S 
AND LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY. 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING COULD PROMOTE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED 
FRONT OFFSHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH 
OFFSHORE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT. THE MODELS DIFFER ON 
THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMA
WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH HOWEVER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SATURDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S.

A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN DURING THIS TIME WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON 
SUNDAY AND THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. 

A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH ON TUESDAY 
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM MVFR VARIABLE IFR TO VFR INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOULD SEE -SHRA TRANSITION OVER TO AT LEAST
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ALL TERMINALS...AND OVER TO ALL -SN AT KSWF AND
POSSIBLY KHPN BEFORE ENDING. POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION
KSWF...AND LESS THAN 1 INCH KHPN. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COATING OF
SLUSH ELSEWHERE.

WINDS NW G20-30KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLATED 35-40KT
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FOR NW FLOW UP TO 35 KT
OVERNIGHT. 

MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON WED...MAINLY WITH
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS.

SCA WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. 
WINDS WILL TREND BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY BUT SEAS ON OFFSHORE WATERS 
SHOULD STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
RELAX ON SATURDAY AS REGION WEAKER FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WATERS. 
SEAS AND WINDS COULD RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL...UP
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS E OF NYC.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE 
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 16:

EWR - 26 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
BDR - 29 IN 1981  FORECAST LOW - 29
NYC - 29 IN 1928  FORECAST LOW - 29
LGA - 31 IN 1943  FORECAST LOW - 29
JFK - 33 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 30
ISP - 32 IN 2008  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW/DS
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JMC/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...DW/DS
CLIMATE...LN




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