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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 030603
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY AND MOVES ACROSS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE FOG ACROSS
METRO NY AND MAINLY CONFINED IT TO THE OUTLYING SUBURBS. THE MAIN
AREA AGAIN LOOKS TO BE EASTERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT.

A SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
GIVES WAY TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS AND THE COVERAGE.
LAST NIGHT IT WAS PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND SIMILAR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND OFF THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATE THURSDAY THE 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF 
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT PUSHES 
THROUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER 
SHORTWAVE IS WEAK WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND CAPE OF 500 TO 1200 
J/KG. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS  AND 
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BY 06Z 
FRIDAY INSTABILITY DECREASES ALONG WITH CAPE AND WILL TRANSITION TO 
JUST SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION 
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY FLATTENING NEXT WEEK. 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH AND BEFORE MOISTURE/WEAK 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEPART. MAIN STORY WILL BE A COOLER AND DRIER 
CANADIAN MARITIME AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. 

ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON 
FRIDAY MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 
400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE 
COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI AFT INTO 
SAT DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES. HIGHS SHOULD RUN NEAR 
SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA 
HIGH. A STEADY MODERATION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY SUN THROUGH 
WED...WITH HIGHS INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE 
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS PROBABLE AT
KLGA/KEWR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB
AND KHPN BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO 
NORTHERN JERSEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES 
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE 
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TOWARD 
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY 
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN 
LONG ISLAND SOUND...EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS 
EAST OF MORICHES INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN  
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR  
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS 
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND
AND NEARSHORE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH 
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TONIGHT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE.
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/NV
NEAR TERM...DW/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MET/NV
HYDROLOGY...MET/NV



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