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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 280656
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
256 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES 
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH 
MOVING NORTH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN.

BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND
DIURNAL HEATING...AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. A 
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS UP THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO EXISTS.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY EVENING WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN. STRONG GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE 
PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY 
CLEAR. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE 
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED 
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE 
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN 
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL 
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE 
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE 
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION 
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH 
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND 
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING 
IN...COULD VERY WELL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION OF 
PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE 
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THE CLOSED LOW 
ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH 
STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE END OF 
THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES 
THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN ISO SHOWER 
OR TSTM. 

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING 
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS 
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH 
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD 
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR 
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN. 

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH
DURING MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

VFR. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TOWARD 04Z. 
STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM 05Z SOUTH 
AND WEST TO 09Z TO 12Z NORTH AND EAST.

AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO 
CONNECTICUT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10KT TO 15KT TONIGHT INCREASES MONDAY UP TO 
15KT TO 20KT...WITH GUSTS 25KT TO 30KT. WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST TO 
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW AND FRONT CROSS THE REGION MONDAY 
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUE THROUGH  FRI...
.MON NIGHT-THU...VFR.
.FRI...VFR. ISO SHRA/TSTM.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE 
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE 
QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO 
THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT 
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING. 
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA 
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE 
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING. 

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE 
RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT 
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...PW







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