Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 010038
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
838 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO 
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR'EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL 
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT 
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

FOR THIS EVENING...INTERACTION BETWEEN REAR QUAD OF ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER JET LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND WEAK SFC TROUGH/H8 TROWAL...IS PRODUCING LIGHT
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE IN FULL
AGREEMENT ON THE SFC TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL TROWAL MOVING WWD IN
TANDEM TOWARD THE NJ COAST TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREA OF RAIN TO
DRIFT SW-WARD WITH IT OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING MAINLY NYC METRO AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR
AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SINCE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST...WITH CONTINUED APPROACH OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
THE THE NOSE OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK LATE TO PROVIDE LIFT. 

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S
INLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC 
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES 
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12 
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE 
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT 
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS 
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE 
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT 
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD 
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES 
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S 
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER 
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS 
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS 
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z 
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE'RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA 
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN 
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.   

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE 
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING 
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT 
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT'S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX 
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT 
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW 
MODERATION OF TEMPS.  

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON 
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT 
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT. 
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING 
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE 
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH 
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SERIES OF LOWS OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WILL PRODUCE INCREASING RAIN AND GUSTY N-NE WINDS OF 20-30
KT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. KSWF WILL LIKELY
HAVE LIGHTER RAIN AND WINDS...AS THEY WILL BE FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE OFFSHORE LOWS.

INITIALLY VFR...BUT MVFR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
RAIN BECOMES MORE STEADY. RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...RESULTING IN PERIODIC IFR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF CITY
TERMINALS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF
IFR...EXCLUDED FROM TAFS FOR TIME BEING.

  ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN
AND MVFR WHICH COULD VARY 1-3 HOURS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. 
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT 
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT 
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. 

OCNL GALE FORCE GUST ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT...AND ARE
LIKELY SAT MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE DAY SAT
OR SAT NIGHT. 

ROUGH SEAS PER 18Z WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN 
EXPECTED WINDS. 

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY 
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA 
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS 
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL 
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS 
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW 
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN MORE OF A STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SAT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES...TO ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL 
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR /SANDY HOOK VICINITY/...THE LONG ISLAND
SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL. 

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/TONGUE 
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/PW 
SHORT TERM...PW 
LONG TERM...TONGUE 
AVIATION...JM 
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW/TONGUE 
HYDROLOGY...PW/TONGUE 
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW 





National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy