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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 030832
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN 
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN 
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE KEEPS US DRY DURING THE MORNING. A
COLD FRONT THEN COMBINES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

WENT CLOSER TO MAV MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS BASED ON TEMPS ALOFT AND 
EXPECTED TIMING OF SEA BREEZES AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THEREFORE 
GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST CASES. 
DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY 
HEAT ADVISORIES...AND WILL MAINLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN 
THE TEMPERATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH LOW 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE 
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME 
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW 
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY 
NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SURFACE
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND
LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY'S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST 
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF 
BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. 
ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK 
LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST 
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW 
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A 
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A 
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH 
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND 
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE 
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE 
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON 
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING...THEN CROSSES
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAZE ALOFT IS POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY TO THE N/W OF CITY TERMINALS. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN
TAFS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A N-NE FLOW UNDER 10 KT
AT CITY TERMINALS BY MID-LATE MORNING AND AT KTEB/KSWF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE LIKELY AT CT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
PROBABLE AT KJFK/KISP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT KLGA/KEWR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEABREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KTEB AND KHPN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN TAFS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING.


...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR THIS
MORNING AND A SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE OF SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH A 
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS THEN PICK 
UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE 
NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS 
UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS
COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND LATER WITH
INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF 5 FT
SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD BE A LATE
THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE FOR
NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND ISSUE SCA AS
NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON 
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY 
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE. 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS



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