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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220454
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT THEN
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN STALLS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE MAY RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD
THERE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE WITH THIS UPDATE.

A LARGE 1035 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
VA AND NC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AT ALL BUT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
EXPECT TO DECOUPLE EVEN THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...WITH
LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR MOST
COASTAL AREAS...AND AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO
WHERE THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THESE LOWS OVERALL ARE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SW FLOW WILL USHER A
MILDER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THESE TEMPS...HOWEVER...ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT...OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST FOCUS WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW CHANCE...AND
WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MOST ELSEWHERE. WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CT AND THE PINE BARRENS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...P-TYPE COULD BE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NYC/LONG ISLAND SHOULD
STAY AS PLAIN RAIN...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND
AND IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY SUNDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE 
REGION...WITH UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDING DURING THE DAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING MID WEST TROUGH.

THE RIDGE GIVES WAY TO SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKS 
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.  
MEANWHILE...MAIN TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE UPPER 
MID WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS 
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES EASTWARD 
PROGRESS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. THE 
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT SETTLES EAST OF THE AREA MID WEEK AS 
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT...LIKELY PASSING JUST 
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. BY THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT TO 
THE WEST APPROACHES. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD LATE 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE MAY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID 
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY.

AS FOR WEATHER...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ENDS
SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S. WITH SOUTH
WINDS...TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THEN WARM INTO THE 60S MONDAY AS AREA BECOMES WARM
SECTORED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

POPS AND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE 
MID WEEK AND AGAIN LATE WEEK. KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR 
NOW...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF NYC. WEATHER TYPE WILL BE 
DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF 
THE AREA SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A MID LEVEL
DECK MOVING IN LATE SAT AFT/EVE.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. 
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 14-15Z
SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR. BRIEF MVFR CIG POSSIBLE AT KSWF SAT EVE.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY 
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BELOW 25 KT AT 44025 AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 4 FT AT
BOTH 44025 AND 44017...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

OTHERWISE...MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK. 

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS. THAT HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...AND THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TOWARD THE SW SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT 
APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD 
OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM S/SE TO S/SW.

THEN WINDS SHIFT AGAIN BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS TURN TOWARD THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE 
WATERS MAY TURN THE WINDS TOWARD THE N/NW LATE WEDNESDAY.

WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT GALES ARE 
POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT.

WINDS DO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS.

SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/MPS/FIG
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/GC
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MALOIT/GC/MPS/FIG
HYDROLOGY...MPS




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