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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181818
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH THEN SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS ARE HOLDING A STRONGER INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE
SCATTERED...MANY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN...MITIGATING SOLAR
INSOLATION. HENCE...MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AGAIN WITH THE
UPDATE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS ORANGE
COUNTY...FARTHEST AWAY FROM THE EASTERLY WIND.

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE 
NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. 
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED IN KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE 
NORTH...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE MAIN 
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. 
A PASSING VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE A WARMING TREND WITH
WAA...THE COMBINATION OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK 
TROUGH SETTING UP BRIEFLY OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH IS QUICKLY 
REPLACED BY THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE...BUILDING SOUTH AND EAST FROM 
CANADA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT AGAIN MAIN 
FORCING IS TO THE NORTH AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE SURFACE 
ALONG WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE A DRY NIGHT. RIDGING SETS 
UP QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AND WITH 
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY ONCE 
THE MORNING CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND 
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...AND THEN EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING INFLUENCE. 

INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ON SATURDAY COULD LEAD TO AN 
ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH 
SUSTAINED 10-15 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...CORRESPONDING WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 30 
PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY...THEN SLIDES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED 
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY AND WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IN 
THIS TIME FRAME. FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET 
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES NEAR NORMAL IN NYC PROPER...AND A FEW DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN 
FROM 925-875 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER 
TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT READINGS TO BE 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF NAM 
2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC 
GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN 
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP 
THINGS DRY...BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS 
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEVELOPING FULL 
LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN 
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF IT LIKELY 
CONFINED TO THE NW 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO E 
PA/UPSTATE NY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A 
NEGATIVE TILT...WOULD EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA 
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOTING SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL 
TIMING...AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 
CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE E 
ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE 00Z CMC 
AND GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON 
WILL A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY TILT 
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND HOW QUICKLY WILL THIS CUTOFF LIFT TO THE 
NE. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF 
SOLUTION...AS SLOWER IS OFTEN THE BETTER FORECAST WITH NEGATIVELY 
TILTED SYSTEMS. AS A RESULT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF 
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. 

A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. 
HOWEVER...WITH A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR TO 
THE NE...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT THE FORECAST COULD LATER 
EVOLVE INTO A CLOUDIER ONE WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS IN THIS TIME 
FRAME. 

FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY-THURSDAY USED A BLEND OF 
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN NEAR 
NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 
SOME AREAS MAINLY FROM NYC ON W HITTING 70. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 
FOR NOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE 
OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ENDS UP CLOSER 
TO THE AREA...THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT.

MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH JUST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES TURNING WINDS S AT 8-12 KT.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND
8-15KT. 

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER
00Z SATURDAY...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING
EASTERLY SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. THIS AFTERNOON...BUOY 44017 SEAS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 1 FT HIGHER
THAN WAVEWATCH.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ONCE
THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THERE AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY 
NIGHT-TUESDAY...WITH WINDS ON NON-OCEAN WATERS 10 KT OR LESS. 
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS COULD
EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD ALSO BE
10 KT OR LESS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE TUESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY 
TO SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY. 

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS 
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JM/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MALOIT/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/SEARS








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