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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 161807
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND. THEN HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT THEN MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST
OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FORCING FOR LIFT GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA AND NOW
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND...WHERE IT IS ALLOWING FOR SOME
CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ITS VICINITY...ACROSS EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND OFFSHORE.

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
STILL MOIST LOW LEVELS. WITH GROUNDS WET FROM RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER CONSIDERING THE
WINDS ARE LIGHT SO THE DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIURNAL CU
HAS DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC 
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...GIVING THE REGION MORE OF
A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ADVECT IN COLDER AIR. IN
ADDITION...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SOMEWHAT EFFICIENT
AS WELL. THEREFORE...PREFERRED LOWER MAV GUIDANCE COMPARED TO MET
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO UPPER 50S...LOWEST FOR RURAL INTERIOR SECTIONS AND HIGHEST NEAR
NYC.

HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT CENTERS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
GRADIENT DECREASE AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING AS
WELL. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD EASILY GIVE WAY TO SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AS LAND TEMPERATURES EXCEED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING SUBSIDENCE TO BE THAT STRONG...SO
THINKING THAT SOME DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GMOS...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER READING ALONG THE COAST BUT OVERALL MOSTLY LOWER
70S.

DRY CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA STARTS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO OUR REGION.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM 
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG 
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. 
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES 
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH 
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE 
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. 
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON 
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S 
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN 
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES 
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK 
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 
THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR 
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND. 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL 
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER 
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL 
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND 
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON... WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST TONIGHT.

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON. 
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY 
BRIEFLY VARY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO 
THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT...UNDER 10 
KT.

LIGHT NW OR VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NE WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. 

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN VARIABLE UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE...SO NOT GOING WITH SCA AT THIS TIME.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL 
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI 
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE
FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...BUT WILL BE MOSTLY OFFSHORE BY THIS POINT.
NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM/JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/JC/24
HYDROLOGY...24/JM










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