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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 240628
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
228 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND PASS EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE LOCALS AREA. HOWEVER WITH FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TO 
NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS E LI/SECT ON
THU...OTHERWISE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...AND HIGH 
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY 
NIGHT.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND 
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND
BEACHES ON THURSDAY WITH RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE 
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL 
MOVE ACROSS...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO 
SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. 

CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
IN FROM THE WEST AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS 
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF NYC TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...PUSHING E OF KGON BY MORNING. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING THE CHC OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY E OF NYC.

SHRA/TSTMS HAVE CEASED FOR THE TIME BEING WITH VFR CONDS ACROSS
THE AREA. COULD BE PATCHY MVFR FOG WHERE WINDS LIGHTEN BELOW 5 KT
AND EVEN LOW CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND EAST OF KISP/KBDR OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY AT KSWF EXPECTED TO LIFT/SCT OUT BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z WITH THE INCREASING AND DRYING NLY FLOW. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z FRI...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY WHERE THEY COULD BRIEFLY DROP OF MVFR.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER DURING THE DAY...THEREFORE
DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTS. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CHC IS AT KGON/KBDR AND POSSIBLY KJFK LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT KJFK...HAVE ONLY TEMPO'ED FOR
NOW. OTHERWISE...THERE IS SOME INDICATING THAT WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BACK 30-40 DEGREES AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

NYC TERMINALS: DIRECTIONS BECOME RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BY 09Z AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR 
OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS 
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. 

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY 
WINDS WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING 
OF THE WEEK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE APPROACH OF A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN. BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING
AND AMOUNTS...THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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