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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290513
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
113 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND THEN MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AS EXPECTED. A NLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW KTS OF WIND OVERNIGHT AT ALL
BUT SHELTERED AND LOCATIONS WELL INLAND WILL KEEP RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO A MINIMUM. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY T/TD
AND SKY. LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN NYC AND
UPPER 40S IN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
1020S HI RIGHT OVER THE CWA. LGT WINDS AND DRY WX. WEAK RETURN
FLOW FRI NGT COULD BRING IN ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY
FOG. TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW FAIRLY DEEP MOISTENING HOWEVER...UP TO
AROUND H9...SO THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH SOME STRATUS
FLOATING AROUND. HAVE HELD OFF ON INCLUDING FOG IN THE FCST ATTM
AS A RESULT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION 
SLIDING EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE 
REGION DURING THE THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
REGION...FINALLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A 
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION. 

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE 
BEST CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. 

EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW 
NORMAL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 
WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ALSO EXPECT MUGGY 
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY WITH VFR
EXPECTED.

N-NW FLOW...RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES MAGNETIC...IS GENERALLY
SUBSIDING. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT N-NNE WINDS
AFTER SUNRISE EVENTUALLY BECOMING SE WITH SEA BREEZES AT ALL
COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KT...EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER.

WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL STILL EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AFT
MIDNIGHT. THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 2O KT THRU TNGT.
HIPRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRI SO LGT WINDS WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SWELLS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SINCE HIGH TIDE HAS PASSED
ON THE ATLANTIC AND SEAS AT 44017 AT 5 FT...HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVSY. 

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY 
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$








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