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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 310022
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
822 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A SECONDARY
LOW FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY
AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS STORM FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST OF THE INLAND STRATO CU WAS
DISSIPATING. DRIER AIR WAS FLOWING IN ON A NORTHWEST WIND.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND PVA DIVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES...MOVING EAST TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MOVES QUICKLY 
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU 
CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT 
FEW TO SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PER MOS 
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK PVA TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SFC 
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE 
CARVES OUT LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE 
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW LATER 
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT...AND A MOISTENING
COLUMN DUE TO INCREASING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW H8 HPA...EXPECT
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND NE FLOW. NEAR NORMAL READINGS ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM 
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRST...LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN LONG ISLAND/SE CT WITH CAT POP...WITH
LIKELY POP AS FAR BACK AS NYC METRO. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMTS DURING THE DAY SAT BETWEEN THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE LATEST GFS SOONER AND A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST...AND THE ECMWF WETTER AND LATER OUT
EAST...HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE DIFFERENCES FOR NOW WITH A GENERAL
ALL DAY EVENT. 

FOCUS OF RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH 
DECREASING POP AS THIS FIRST LOW LIFTS TO THE NE. PRECIP COULD
BRIEFLY END AS SOME SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH/WEST. AS A STRONGER LOW FORMS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...ITS RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT FAILS TO PHASE
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS WEST. ITS MORE IMPORTANT IMPACTS WILL
BE AND COOLER CONDS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BRISK N FLOW AS AS THE LOW
INTENSIFIES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND BETWEEN IT
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STRATOCU AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BARELY REACH 50 IN NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND...AND
REMAIN IN THE 40S INLAND.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM 
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING IN MOST PLACES. ASA RESULT STUCK CLOSE TO 
GUIDANCE LOWS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND DID NOT UNDERCUT...WITH LOWS 
25-30 WELL INLAND...LOWER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND MID 30S FOR NYC. 

AFTER ONE MORE COOL DAY ON MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND 
LOWER 50S...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MID 
WEEK PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE 
PASSES TO THE EAST. SHOULD THEN SEE A SERIES OF WEAK...FAST MOVING 
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH IN FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCE 
POP FOR RAIN SHOWERS NORTH/WEST OF NYC ON WED...AND THROUGHOUT THE 
AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH 
FRIDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THEN DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND TRACKS NE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
FRI AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE ONSET
OF -RA.

WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND NE ON FRIDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRI NGT-SAT NGT...MVFR OR LOWER. PCPN MAINLY RAIN...BUT SNOW MAY
MIX IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUN NIGHT. NE-N WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. AFT STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT...SO HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HEIGHTS DOWNWARD UP TO
A FOOT THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WIND WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH AND DIMINISH A FEW KNOTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...NW WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE N TONIGHT. THE WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NE AND
INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE E/NE WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...LIKELY TO SCA
THRESHOLDS.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL SEAS BUILD LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE 
WINDS INCREASE. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY BY SAT...BUT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WHETHER GALES WILL DEVELOP THAT EARLY DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF AN INITIAL LOW PASSING TO THE SE. GALES APPEAR MORE
LIKELY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND PASSES TO THE SE...WITH CAA OVER STILL RELATIVELY
MILD WATERS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 

AFTER SOME LINGERING GALES ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
EVENING...SCA CONDS SHOULD OTHERWISE FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MON FOR MOST WATERS. THEN QUIET CONDS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL WATERS
BY MON NIGHT. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD BRING
A RETURN OF SCA CONDS TO THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER A
HALF INCH...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS ERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW







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