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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 280531
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE NC COAST
AND MOVES NE ANS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S EXCEPT RIGHT AROUND 30
DEGS IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TO START THE DAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ARND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVERHEAD. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING 
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PAC 
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH POLAR JET ENERGY WITH A COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON...AND ANOTHER WED AFT/EVE. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION PCPN PRECEDES EACH SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF MIX 
OF FROZEN PCPN AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE 
THERMO PROFILES WARM. SUN MORNING AND TUE NIGHT ARE THE TIMES OF 
INTEREST. THE LATTER IS POTENTIALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO 
AS IT PRECEDED BY A TRANSIENT 1045 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW 
ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE EACH COLD 
FRONT.

FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING SAT AT 
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH RESIDUAL COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND TUE 
FOLLOWING THE MON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE 
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE 
NE ON WED. THUS...IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND 
AMOUNT OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS IN THRU FRI.

MAINLY VFR. POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE KISP...KGON AND KSWF THRU 10Z. 
ALL AREAS VFR FRI AND FRI NGT.

NW WINDS GENERALLY BLW 10 KT TNGT...THEN GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FRI. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NGT-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...
6 AM - 7 PM FRI FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY 6 AM -
MIDNIGHT SAT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EAST TO MONTAUK PT...EASTERN
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND GARDINERS AND PECONIC BAYS

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT BY SUNRISE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

OCEAN SEAS/WINDS COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON
THE OCEAN INTO MON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM MON NIGHT
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST 
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW







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