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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 292156
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK... 
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BKN/OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS. 
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES STILL SEEN ON KOKX RADAR MAINLY OVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY CT ATTM ARE NOT SHOWERS BUT BIRDS...WHICH SHOULD
RETURN TO OLD LYME TO ROOST TOWARD SUNSET. MEANWHILE...SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH WITH A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL VORT MAX AHEAD OF
AN APCHG UPPER TROUGH STREAMING NE INTO NYC METRO THIS EVENING.
THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY OVER SRN CT AND LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHILE A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA CONTINUES SW-WARD...AND PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND/LONG ISLAND
PINE BARRENS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5 
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. 
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO 
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS 
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH 
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD 
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM 
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN. 

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP 
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE 
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP 
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE 
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ. 
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL 
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE 
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES 
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT 
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED 
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES 
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES 
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP 
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD 
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A 
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH KLGA/KEWR THROUGH 2230Z. WINDS WITH
SEA BREEZES AROUND 8 KT. SEABREEZE DIMINISHES BY AROUND 00-01Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: 180 MAG SEABREEZE THROUGH 24Z. WIND SPEED 8
KT OR LESS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: 170-180 MAG SEABREEZE BTWN 22 AND 24Z. WIND
SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: 150-170 MAG SEABREEZE BTWN 22 AND 24Z. WIND
SPEED 8 KT OR LESS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...VFR LIKELY. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. 
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. 

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/TONGUE






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