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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 020123
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
923 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY 
WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO HOURLY
T/TD TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN JUST TO THE 
WEST...THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...THIS EVENING 
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED 
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MOVES EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN
LATE AT NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO THE EAST TO BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INTO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH NO TRIGGERS OR UPPER SUPPORT PRESENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOES
APPROACH IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION LATE 
THU/THU NIGHT...WHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DIGS 
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER 
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEFORE GRADUALLY 
FLATTENING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. 
 
LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON THU. A CANADIAN COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE THU/THU EVE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
DIGS SE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF 
ISO/SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT 
SAGS SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THU WITH HEAT 
INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS NYC AND URBAN NE NJ. 

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SSW ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO 
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN MARITIME 
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS 
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY MAY POSE A 
ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI 
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL EXISTS 
FOR A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRI INTO SAT. HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED 
TO RUN NEAR SEASONABLE...UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
SINKS SE OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SPELL A STEADY MODERATION IN 
HUMIDITY AND LATE SUMMER HEAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. CITY TERMINALS STILL HAVE AROUND 8-10 KT SOUTH WIND
WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON IN FOG.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR 1-2 HRS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN INDICATED IN FORECAST. WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS
HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED COULD BE A FEW KTS HIGHER THAN
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON
WITH MVFR OR BELOW POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEAS WILL 
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS IS 
FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR  
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS 
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON LI SOUND AND NEARSHORE 
WATERS. 

WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH 
SUB SCA CONDS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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