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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 021203
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
703 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD IN TONIGHT. THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER
THEN EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE
MARITIMES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE THE
COLD AIRMASS...THE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING. NAM AND GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO ABOUT H8...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS
RIGHT AROUND FREEZING INTERIOR TO JUST ABV AT THE COAST.
NORMALLY...A FEW DEGREES COULD BE ADDED TO THIS WITH THE MARCH
SUN ANGLE. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE CITY. AS A RESULT...WENT WITH
TEMPS A LITTLE BLW GUIDANCE FOR TODAY.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BY EARLY AFTN SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF CLR SKIES THIS
EVE...THEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS BEGIN TO
FILTER IN LATE TNGT.

TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TNGT. WINDS THIS EVE MAY LIMIT THE
INITIAL DROP OFF AFT DARK...PARTICULARLY COASTS AND CITY. AS WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THE INCREASING MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ATTM
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE GULF BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND HI PRES OVER THE CWA DRIFTS
OFFSHORE. RESULT IS INCREASING THETA-E OVER THE REGION WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AFT 18Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING. TEMP PROFILES INDICATE THE COLUMN IS GENERALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THRU 00Z. THE NAM DOES WARM THINGS SLIGHTLY
FASTER ALOFT...SO SOME SLEET MIXING IN WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
STATEN ISLAND INTO NJ IN THE 22-00Z TIME PERIOD SHOULD THIS FASTER
SOLN VERIFY.

WITH A LOCALLY MDT BURST OF SNOW AT THE ONSET...WILL FCST AROUND
AN INCH OF SNOW WRN ZONES FOR LATE IN THE AFTN. 

TEMPS BLW CLIMO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE USED. THE ONSHORE SLY
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY AS THE DAY ENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES 
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...PHASING WITH A SW US LOW...AND 
THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BY END OF THE 
WEEK.  

THE PHASED STREAMS WILL HAVE A MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC 
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

THE FIRST PIECE OF PHASED ENERGY WILL HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE 
TRACKING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC TUE/TUES 
NIGHT...WITH ITS WARM FRONT...AND AN ABSORBED CENTRAL PLAINS LOW... 
APPROACHING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WAA AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN AS 
SNOW...BUT WITH MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL PAC 
CONNECTION...EXPECTING TEMPS ALOFT TO WARM FAIRLY RAPIDLY TUE 
EVE/NIGHT WITH SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PCPN THEN RAIN FROM S TO N. A 
QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW CITY/COAST AND 2 TO 4 INTERIOR ARE 
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGEOVER. 

DUE TO THE PRIMARY LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE NW OF THE REGION...DEEP 
SNOW PACK AND COLD WATER TEMPS...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY 
HAVE TROUBLE LIFTING NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRACE TO FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE 
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CITY/COAST TUE EVENING BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO 
RAIN...BUT INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET 
ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE 
POSSIBLE HERE. WITH SOME OF THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIP FALLING IN 
FROZEN FORM AND TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE MID TO 
UPPER 30S THROUGH WED MORNING...NOT EXPECTING A GREAT AMOUNT OF 
SNOWMELT...SO JUST EXPECTING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS 
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

BEST LIFT MOVES EAST WED MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
JUST SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF FRONT. 

STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED EVE/NIGHT WITH FALLING TEMPS 
WED NIGHT. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF 
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS AND THE REGION UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 
175-200KT UPPER JET. POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THIS TO BE IN THE FORM OF 
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN THIS 
DIRECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS FOR 
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW THREAT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA THU INTO FRI.

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE 
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL REBOUND AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAA DEVELOPING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR EARLY TODAY BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. W WINDS 5-10 KT BECOME NW 10-20
KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST 
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GUST TIMING 
COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST 
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-2 HRS FROM FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MVFR AND GUST
TIMING COULD BE OFF 1-3 HRS FROM FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUESDAY MORNING...VFR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY 
MIX LATE EVE...AND THEN RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF AND 
POSSIBLY CT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LLWS LIKELY.
.WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN - WITH A BRIEF PERIOD 
OF ZR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT KSWF. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PRECIPITATION...OTHERWISE VFR. IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION...SHOULD 
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY 
CONTINUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SCA LVLS TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER
THE N ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TNGT AS HI PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. COND BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE. SCA
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...WITH ACCOMPANYING SCA SEAS DEVELOPING. WINDS LIKELY
DROP BELOW SCA ON WED...BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SCA. SCA COND COULD
CONTINUE INTO THU BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...WITH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SUB-ADVY CONDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH ANOTHER BUILDING HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN IS LIKELY LATE
TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS PLAIN
RAIN...THEREFORE THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME MELTING SNOW
PACK COULD CAUSE NUISANCE URBAN FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE METRO
AND COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXISTS IN THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY...SOME MELTING OF SNOWPACK CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR NUISANCE FLOODING.

SOME MINOR INCREASES IN STREAMFLOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHEASTERN NJ RIVER BASINS DUE TO RAIN AND SNOWMELT LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF ICE
MOVEMENT AND ICE JAM FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER 1/2+ INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FROZEN.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...NV









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