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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251340
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TODAY AND THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS 
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THIS
MORNING...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A MAV/MET BLEND YIELDS
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE DAY.

AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE S/SW. 
ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL HELP A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AN H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN A SMALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED S/SW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION AND A SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST 
DEEPENS. WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW...INCREASING LIFT 
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATER IN 
THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH...SO 
ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES 
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE 
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE FELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH 
GENERAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY. THEN 
SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS 
TROUGH. THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEK. IN TIME...THE TROUGH WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE 
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. IN 
FACT...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR VICINITY 
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...ECMWF...GEFS MEAN AND GFS APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT ON OVERALL FEATURES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN LIKELY 
FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMALS LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A LARGE DISPARITY IN 
TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS WEST OF NYC IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

VFR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS.

A LIGHT NLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING. SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER THE
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH SHOULD BACK WINDS TO WLY FOR A FEW HOURS
AT KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BEFORE THE SEABREEZE MOVES THROUGH.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SEABREEZE EXPECTED TO IMPACT AIRFIELD
BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-MON...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW. 
THESE ELEVATED SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY 
AND TUESDAY. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT APPEARS TOO HIGH AT TIMES 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS SUCH...FORECAST AROUND A FOOT OR 
SO LOWER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE 
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE 
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL 
EXISTS WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PICCA/PW/MMD
NEAR TERM...PICCA/PW/MMD 
SHORT TERM...PICCA/MMD 
LONG TERM...PW 
AVIATION...24/JC
MARINE...PICCA/PW/MMD 
HYDROLOGY...PICCA/PW/MMD




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