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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 292357
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST DURING MID WEEK... 
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING WAS TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHER VORT
MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE SHORTWAVE LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM SRN NH INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MA CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUSHES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT...TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE E-NE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WITH THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH ON TUE...AND AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW APCHG
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE DAY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...SHOULD
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PD. E-NE FLOW OF MARITIME AIR WILL ALSO PERSIST...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO BUT STILL A COUPLE OF DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRTWV DROPPING INTO NRN MN WILL PASS THRU THE CWA AS A CLOSED H5 
LOW ON WED. 12Z MODEL TIMING IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF. 
H85-H5 LAPSE RATES IN THE 5-6C/KM RANGE. DPVA SHOULD BE ABLE TO 
OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP AROUND H7. AS A RESULT...WILL FCST SCT SHWRS 
WED...ENDING FROM W TO E WED NGT AS THE UPR LOW SLOWLY EXITS. DEPTH 
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLD 
LIGHTNING FLASH...ESPECIALLY OVER OR INVOF THE WATER WHERE THE WARM 
AND MOIST BL WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE COLUMN. 

SFC RIDGING EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN CANADA THU AND FRI. THIS WILL KEEP 
A COOL NE-LY FLOW IN PLACE PRODUCING SEASONAL TEMPS. A MOIST MARINE 
LAYER BLW THE DRY MID AND UPR LVLS WITH SUBSIDENCE...SO THE SETUP 
WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO ANY CONVECTION OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THE 
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN AREAS OF DZ. 
HAVE INCLUDED CHC SPRINKLES WHERE THE GREATEST POOLING OF LLVL 
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ATTM.

MAIN PCPN EVEN IN THE LONG RANGE IS TAKING SHAPE FOR SAT. THE 
PRIMARY DRIVER IS A STRONG UPR LOW OVER AK WHICH WILL DROP INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES THRU THE PERIOD. STRONG RETURN FLOW FRI NGT PRODUCES 
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FOR SAT. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT 
AND UPR DYNAMICS THEN PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN ON SAT. HAVE INCLUDED 
LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST.

DRY ON SUN. A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES 
TEMPS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. AS THE BROAD UPR LOW/TROF REACHES 
THE AREA AROUND MON...THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP 
IN RESPONSE. ECMWF HAD A SFC LOW SPINNING UP...AND THE GFS HAS COLD 
POOL TYPE SHWRS. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS AND CLOUDY SKIES AS A 
RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY.

VFR. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

MVFR STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW INTO
KGON AND LIKELY INTO KISP/KBDR/KHPN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPS INTO NYC
METRO TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRATUS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER ACROSS CT TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING...BECOMING E/NE IN THE WAKE
OF COLD FRONT. E/NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
10Z AND 14Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE. CHC -SHRA E-NE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT.
.WED...CHC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/-SHRA. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. 
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY. CHC MVFR OR LOWER. SW WINDS AM BECMG WNW PM.
GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TUE. PERSISTENT/INCREASING E-NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SCA
CONDS TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE SCA FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. 

THESE CONDS COULD CONTINUE INTO THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN AND
THE ERN SOUND/BAYS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DECREASE ON FRI...ONLY TO
RAPIDLY BUILD AGAIN ON SAT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
CDFNT. WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS ON SUNDAY ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WED-WED NGT. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/GOODMAN









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