Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 240955
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WILL KICK OFF TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAWS A WARM FRONT THRU
THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT...TRACKS 
NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN  MARITIMES DURING THE DAY ON 
THURSDAY...TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AS IT DOES SO. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A CLIPPER 
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
982MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS OF 08Z. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO SE CANADA WHILE DEEPENING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC OBS HAD THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. RAIN AS OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF W TO E. 

KOKX VWP ALREADY INDICATING A 60KT LLJ BETWEEN 3K-6K FT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE FURTHER THROUGH 12Z OR SO ENHANCING
RAINFALL WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING AS
WELL...SO HAVE LEFT THE SCHC THUNDER. LAST 3 HRS OF RADAR IMAGERY
DO SHOW A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TRACKING FROM THE
DELMARVA AND INTO THE AREA SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LIGHTNING
PRESENT...WILL GIVE IT A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE PULLING IT OUT.

STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ONCE THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT COULD SEE WIND ADVSY GUSTS AT THE
COAST. HAVE EXPANDED ADVSY TO INCLUDE COASTAL CT...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND THE REST OF NYC TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BRIDGES AND
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NAM/GFS INDICATING 40-50KT BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 FT. THE HRRR...RAP...AND WRF MODELS ARE EVEN HIGHER BUT THINK
THIS IS OVERDONE.

STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS MORNING AND WITH INCREASED STABILITY
AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY E OF NYC THINK THE ADVSY
THREAT WILL CEASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS STILL POSSIBLE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA TONIGHT WITH ITS COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT USHERING THE WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS OFFSHORE. WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN UP
ENOUGH WITH CAA LAGGING FOR LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

A FEW SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN SCHC POPS.

CAA ENSUES ON TUE...ALBEIT WEAK. STRONGER CAA HOLDS OFF TIL TUE
NIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...BETWEEN 50 AND 55. GUSTY WINDS RETURN AFT SUNRISE
WITH JUST A CIRRUS DECK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z 
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS 
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER 
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A 
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY 
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

LOOKING ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A POSITIVELY 
TILTED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK 
INTO EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING. THEY STILL DIFFER ON THEIR 
HANDLING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING SE FROM THE UPPER 
PLAINS/S CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. IT IS THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE 
TROUGH...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT 
AMPLITUDE/PLACEMENT OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...THAT 
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE 
COASTAL LOW.

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST 
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR 
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR 
SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR S PORTIONS OF THE CWA 
AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD INITIALLY START AS A BRIEF BURST OF 
SNOW OVER COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL 
RAIN. FARTHER INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND THE RAIN WILL 
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AT COASTAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE SOUTH 
FORK OF LONG ISLAND. SNOW THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE CT 
AND SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY COULD LINGER UNTIL 
AROUND MIDDAY.

BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW 
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8 
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH 
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS 
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY 
FOR INTERIOR S CT. 

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING 
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING 
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW 
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE 
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW 
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE 
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.  
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE MID-UPPER TROUGH FINISHES LIFTING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WNW 
FLOW SETTING UP FRIDAY THEN ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY. A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OVER THE 
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-SHSN...MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING. 

RA TURNS TO SHRA FOR CITY AND NEARBY TERMINALS BY THE MORNING PUSH  
SHRA ENDS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY IFR TO START. BETTER CHANCES OF 
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR KEWR/KTEB/KSWF LATE MORNING/AFTN.

SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z...AND WINDS INCREASE TO 
20-25 KT WITH 25-40 KT GUSTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE 
COAST IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WITH BEST MIXING INLAND...CAN EXPECT STRONGER 
WINDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NE NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. 
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 
MID-MORNING.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH LATE AFTN.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN. 
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES 
NOT OCCUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR THIS AFTN. 
FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN IF VFR DOES 
NOT OCCUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE LATE AFTN. FORECAST
GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FORECAST GUSTS COULD BE ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH 
THIS AFTN. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 
10-15 KT.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS. SUB-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST 
WITH PASSAGE OF COASTAL LOW. ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT POSSIBLE FOR 
THE INTERIOR...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST 
DURING WED NIGHT BASED ON TRACK OF LOW. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW AS WELL.
.THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY.
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
.FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING LLJ DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GALES ON ALL WATERS. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS
TO PULL BACK THE END TIME OF THE GALES ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
11Z TO 06Z TUE AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCA CONDS BY THEN. END TIME
OF REMAINING WATERS REMAINS 23Z TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN
SOUND AND HARBOR MAY FALL BELOW A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THAT.

SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
TIGHT WNW GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS CONTINUE ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL 
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN SOUND AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND 
AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE 
OF GALES. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GALE THREAT ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HWO.

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN 
ZONES THURSDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVEL SEAS 
PERSIST ON ALL COASTAL OCEAN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN SMALL CRAFT LEVEL 
SEAS SHOULD PERSIST EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO FRIDAY. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2/3 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING. MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS
LIKELY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1 TO 1 3/4 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL 
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED 
OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS 
OF THE TRI-STATE. 

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO 
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER 
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD 
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY 
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. THIS COULD 
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN
LI...NYC...AND SOUTHWESTERN CT COULD SEE MINOR INUNDATION DURING
THE THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SURF IN THE 6-8FT RANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979..........71
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979..........65
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979..........69
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999..........70
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*.........67
ISLIP...............63/2001..........66

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ010>012.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071>075-
     176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy