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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250534
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST...
PASSING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN UP
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY...MOVING ACROSS
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH FROM THE NORTH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY...WILL ADDRESS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE 8-9Z.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 09Z...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AIR MASS
IS NOT THAT COLD BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER AND MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE MID SECTION OF NATION. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVES DEVELOP LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND DEEPENS WHILE THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LAGS...NOT QUITE
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT AND CHANCE POP UNTIL TOWARD 12Z. THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
AS RAIN AS THE AREA WILL STILL BE WARM. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH
TOWARD 12Z AND PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT INLAND...IN THE COLDER
AIR...THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO 
IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING A FULL LATITUDE UPPER 
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND FORMING A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE SE 
COAST TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN WHILE TRACKING NE ON WED 
TO JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT. THIS 
SCENARIO WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...AND MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT THE COAST WED AND
WED NIGHT. THUS...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS UP FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND CONNECTICUT. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WATCH CONFIGURATION.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THERMAL PROFILES...WITH
THE 12Z GFS REMAINING THE MOST CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE BENCHMARK...40N...70W WED NIGHT. THE 12Z
NAM WRF IS JUST EAST...WHICH EXPLAINS THE COLDER PROFILES AND A
PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT EVEN AT THE COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
EAST LIKE THE SREF THE LAST 24H...BUT REMAINS JUST INSIDE THE
BENCHMARK AND IS ABOUT 6H SLOWER THAN GFS AND NAM. WITH NO POLAR
HIGH TO THE NORTH...THE EVENT WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT OF
DYNAMICS IN A MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS. WET BULB TEMPS EVEN ALONG
THE COAST ARE 1 TO 2 DEG C FROM 1500 FT TO THE SFC...AND NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 0 DEG C. THUS...THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STORM TRACK AND WHERE BANDING...OR
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SETS UP. IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO
GO FROM ALL SNOW AND VICE VERSA...SO THIS IS WHERE THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...INTERIOR
LOCATIONS CONFIDENCE OF A PRIMARILY SNOW EVENT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN
THE P-TYPE FORECAST AT THE COAST.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE WATCH 
AREA...TO AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FORKS OF 
LONG ISLAND. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY 
NOONTIME...AND MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD...USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS 2M 
TEMPS/DEW POINTS. MOS IS LIKELY TOO WARM. FOR P-TYPE...WITH MOST OF 
THERMAL PROFILE BELOW FREEZING...EXCEPT THE LOWEST 1500 FT AT THE 
COAST...USED THE WET BULB IN THIS LAYER.

SNOW TAPERS OFF WED NIGHT WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF 
THE STORM. TEMPS REMAINING 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO 
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.

STARTING AT THE UPPER LEVELS...JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE AMPLIFIED. THE JET
WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND...REMAINING NEAR THE
AREA. THE JET REMAINS NEAR THE REGION AND IS PRIMARILY ZONAL FROM
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY 
NIGHT. THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND A PRIMARY 
ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE 
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY...PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. 
THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH 
SOUTHEAST CANADA. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BE 
BUILDING IN NEXT MONDAY.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THE ONLY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT. THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES THAT FAR OUT...SO LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WHOLE DAY SUNDAY AND ALL OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...SOME PRECIP COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY OR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE SO FOR THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE
LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS ARE CONVEYED TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OR LESS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 
NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AND NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE FORECAST TO 
BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL FOR 
THE NIGHTS DURING THE WEEKEND. NORMAL HIGHS LATE NOVEMBER ARE 
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 WHILE NORMAL LOWS FOR THE SAME 
TIME PERIOD ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COLDEST DAY LOOKS 
TO BE FRIDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MUCH 
OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
TONIGHT.

LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FROM KISP EASTWARD. THIS AREA EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO OFF THE CENTRAL NJ COAST. IT IS SLOWLY WORKING
NORTHWARD...BUT OBSCURED ON SATELLITE BY HIGH/MID CLOUDS. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL THAT THESE LOW CEILINGS COULD REACH KJFK AND POSSIBLY
KLGA BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. STILL THE HIGHEST PROB IS VFR SO
HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY SCT008 IN THE TAFS. REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
VFR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

VFR AFTER THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SSW WINDS SHIFT TO THE W BEHIND THE FRONT. W WINDS CONTINUES TODAY
THEN WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RA/RASN IN THE MORNING CHANGES TO
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...4-8
INCHES POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS. N WINDS 10-15 KT
AM...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
.THURSDAY-THRUSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE EARLY. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
.SATURDAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS VSBYS HAVE
IMPROVED. OTHERWISE...A STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE FORECAST
WATERS. AFTER 06Z WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS ALOFT ALSO DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN IN THE COOLER AIR GUSTS WILL INCREASE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN. IN ADDITION SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BECOMING MARGINAL
DURING THE EVENING. FOR NOW WILL HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THE OCEAN THROUGH TUESDAY...AND ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT.

A COASTAL LOW BRINGS A CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL 
OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN 
ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A LOW CHANCE 
OF GALES. 

CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SUB-SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN 
ZONES THURSDAY WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR WINDS WITH A STEEP
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST TO LOW
PRESSURE WELL INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACROSS AND JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH SCA
CONDITIONS FORECAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...AGAIN
MOSTLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF TO FALL 
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST QPF 
AMOUNTS AREA CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE 
LOWEST OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE.

OVER THE INTERIOR MOST OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SO 
LITTLE IF ANY IMMEDIATE HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED THERE. FARTHER 
TO THE S/E...BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95...THERE WILL BE A A MIX 
OF RAIN AND SNOW. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR 
DRAINAGE AREAS.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-105.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM/DW
AVIATION...JMC/MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW






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