Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 212005
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
405 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA AREA...AND THEN WILL
MEANDER SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...THEN
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES TO JUST
WEST OF THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE
DELMARVA. LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE DELMARVA MOVES EAST AND
OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BASICALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. WINDS ARE
STILL LIGHT OVERALL BUT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY AS MUCAPE VALUES STILL
COULD REACH 100-200 J/KG...CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LOWS WERE TAKEN FROM MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...MID 40S TO MID 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED BUT STILL RESULTS IN A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR. THE LOW AT THE
SURFACE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY IT LOOKS TO BE VERY LIGHT...PICKING UP
IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GUSTY
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RAIN MAY BECOME INTERMITTENT AT TIMES WITH DRY INTERVALS. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE MORE CONSISTENT RAIN
WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STACKED LOW EAST OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT 
N/NE UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL 
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER EASTERN 
NOAM SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT. 
THEREAFTER... THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL 
ENSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA.

RAIN WILL LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW THU INTO THU 
NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER 
WITH THE CLEARING WITH CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY REMAINING THROUGH SAT. 
HOWEVER...HAVE AIRED MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH CLEARING LATE FRI INTO 
FRI NIGHT. AS FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT...HAVE 
MAINTAINED A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS DO HAVE SOME 
LIGHT QPF. PREFER TO SEE MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING 
ANY SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM SUN 
NIGHT INTO MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE 
MIDWEST ON TUE.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE 
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOKING TO BE ON SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE.  

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM BELOW NORMAL ON THU WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD 
COVER TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM RIDGE BUILDS IN 
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOSTLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND PREVAILING
-SHRA COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. SHRA/TSTM COULD PASS
THROUGH AT ANY TERMINAL AT ANY GIVEN TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

ESE WINDS AROUND 10KT...BACKING TO NE THIS EVENING. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS 15-19KT THIS AFTN.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: VCTS POSSIBLE UNTIL 19Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED PM THROUGH THU...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS IN SHRA. NLY FLOW AROUND
15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20KT. GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
.SAT...VFR. W WINDS 10-15KT. GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 15KT. GUSTS AROUND 25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS LIGHT AND FROM THE E-SE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WED THROUGH
WED NIGHT WITH LOW FURTHER DEEPENING. SCA CONDS LIKELY BY
WED AFTERNOON ON ALL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE 5 TO 6 FT WED AND WED
NIGHT. THE HIGHER OCEAN SEAS CONTINUE INTO THU. SCA FOR OCEAN WED
THROUGH THU AND OTHER WATERS WED AFTN THROUGH WED NIGHT.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE OCEAN 
WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THU LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND 
UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME 
TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST AND INTO THE WATERS BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W-NW FLOW. MARGINAL 
SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUND...HARBOR...AND SURROUNDING BAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...WILL RESULT IN LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
INCREASES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AROUND 1/2 QPF
FORECAST. LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

PERIODS OF RAIN...BRIEFLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED NUISANCE URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WED THROUGH
THU.

STORM TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER ANALYSIS OF
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND SREF MEMBERS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING OR PROPERTY FLOODING ISSUES/CONCERNS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy