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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 121759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. SUNNY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
JUST INCREASED HIGH TEMP FCST BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR SOME
AREAS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL BE
GUSTY INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST BY 12Z
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
TONIGHT. SO EXPECT A COLDER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS.

FRIDAY REMAINS QUITE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST...AS AN AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE 
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD 
OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM 
OF RAIN. THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO START. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 
FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN. 

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD 
BE SOME LEFT OVER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM 
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE AREA.  

DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS RIDGE BRIEFLY MOVES IN. 
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN BORDER. THERE ARE SOME MODEL 
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE. HIGH 
RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND. 
THEREAFTER...REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND CLIPPER 
SYSTEMS. AS SUCH...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY 
AND OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW FLOW AROUND 340 TRUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO 
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. 

OVERNIGHT...WINDS VEER TO THE N-NNE AND BECOME LIGHT FOR CITY 
TERMINALS...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR ALL OTHER TERMINALS. 

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST UP TO 30KT THROUGH 20Z. END TIME 
FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.  

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST UP TO 30KT THROUGH 20Z. END TIME 
FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.  

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST UP TO 30KT THROUGH 20Z. END TIME 
FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.  

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST UP TO 30KT THROUGH 20Z. END TIME 
FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.  

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST UP TO 30KT THROUGH 20Z. END TIME 
FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE GUST UP TO 30KT THROUGH 20Z. END TIME 
FOR WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI...VFR WITH LGT WINDS. DIRECTION BECOMING SE IN THE AFTN.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...IFR CONDS LIKELY. RAIN...POSSIBLY BEGINNING 
AS FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF LATE FRI NIGHT. 
.SUN...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. 
.SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR.
.TUE...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AND BASED ON
MOST RECENT OBS...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND SCA FOR THE WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. 

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT 
APPROACH...AND REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON 
EXACTLY WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS 
THE LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 
AND SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. 

WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT...BUT MAY BUILD BACK TO SCA LEVELS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER 
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. 

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HALF TO ONE INCH OF LIQUID 
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION 
OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS EXPECTED RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COULD INCREASE THE 
THREAT FOR RIVER/STREAM LEVEL RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET







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