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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191914
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE 
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE 
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SOUND BREEZE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON KOKX AND BETTER YET ON TJFK WITH
STRATO CU RESULTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN IT'S SKC
AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING THE STAGE FOR PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IN THE
MORE LIKELY AREAS OF INLAND VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND. VSBY IN THESE AREAS COULD BE RATHER LOW (< 1/4 MI) AT
SUNRISE.

TEMP SENSOR AT KLDJ (LINDEN) HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR FAA MAINTENANCE
(TOO WARM).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST -
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE APPROACH (THE SHORT WAVE
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT).

BASED ON 09Z SREF AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS...KEEPING IT DRY
EXCEPT FOR ORANGE COUNTY AFT MIDNIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE'LL HAVE TOMORROW...BUT
AM THINKING CIRRUS WOULD BE THIN - THUS MOSTLY SUNNY. 

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS WITH LITTLE SPREAD SEEN.  

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
TOUCHING OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES THEN MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
AND MEANDERS THERE THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK. DRY CONDS
ON TAP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TO OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WED MORNING...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH. 

SE-S SEA BREEZE 5-10 KT AT KJFK/KISP/KGON IS PUSHING INTO KLGA
ATTM...AND WINDS AT KBDR ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO VEER SE AS WELL.
NE SOUND BREEZE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWARD AT KISP...SO WINDS
THERE SHOULD STAY SE THIS AFTERNOON. 

LIGHT SE-S FLOW THIS EVENING SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
AND THEN EASTERLY AGAIN BY WED MORNING. 

WITH MARITIME AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...THINK
KISP COULD SEE MVFR VSBY LATE. KGON SHOULD ALSO DO ITS TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR VSBY.

EXPECT REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SE-S SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT OCEAN SEA BREEZE
HAS ARRIVED. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW THAT NE SOUND BREEZE
FRONT IS RETREATING. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NYC
METRO AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. 
.FRI-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN MAY BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY
CONDS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC/TONGUE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/MPS







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