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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 270944
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG NOR'EASTER WILL SLOWLY PULLS AWAY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...AN UPDATE TO HAZARDS IS COMING SHORTLY...

...FROM PREVIOUS...
SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON RADAR AND
HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. FIRST LEADING INTENSE SNOW BAND IS FALLING
APART OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ...WHILE ANOTHER MORE
INTENSE BAND DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
PRESENCE OF COUPLED UPPER JET STREAKS...ONE OVER UPSTATE NY AND
ANOTHER WELL OFFSHORE...MOVES WWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CT/LONG
ISLAND...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. PER LATEST
NAM/RAP/HRRR TREND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IT APPEARS THIS
BAND MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR FAIRFIELD/NEW HAVEN/WRN SUFFOLK
COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SLOWLY WEAKEN/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING. PARTS OF THIS AREA COULD SEE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
UPWARDS OF 30 INCHES.

MEANWHILE...WITH SNOW BANDS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING IT MUCH PAST
NYC...HAVE LOWERED AMTS A LITTLE IN NYC/WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM...WITH
TOTALS MOSTLY 14-18 INCHES...AND EVEN MORE WEST OF THE
HUDSON...WITH 10-14 INCHES JUST OUTSIDE NYC AND 6-10 INCHES FOR
THE INTERIOR. ALSO REPLACED BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AS WINDS/VSBYS THERE ARE FALLING
SHORT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45-50 MPH
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ACROSS EXTREME ERN LI...WIND GUSTS
OF 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY OVER WITH JUST SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS
OVER EASTERN SECTION. 

SUN RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY....BUT TEMPS BLW GUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HERE ON THE EXTENDED. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT.

VERY COLD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THE INFLUX OF WAA ALOFT CIRRUS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

CLOUDS THICKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAA ALOFT CONTINUING AS HEIGHTS
BUILD AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THE LIGHT SN THURSDAY NGT AS THE CLIPPER PASS APPROACHES.
THE CLIPPER'S COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY FRIDAY AS SEEN IN THE SREF
AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO - THOUGH TEMPS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING MAY RISE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
THE COAST.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS FALLING TEMPS THOUGH THE 20S
AND INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP
SIGNIFICANTLY AS 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT OFF THE COAST. THUS
MIXED P-TYPE FOR THE COAST. WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOT
OF CHANGES AT THE FORECAST EVOLVES WITH THIS...BUT BELIEVE THIS
COULD END UP BEING A "WARM" STORM. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT **

IFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT AND TUES WITH SNOW. NNE WINDS BACK TO NNW
BY LATE TUES MORNING. GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE TUES 
AFTN. 2-4 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES COULD POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL 
AROUND 12Z FOR THE CITY TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST...WITH A 
BETTER POTENTIAL OVER KISP/KBDR...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SUCH 
RATES LATE MORNING AS WELL.

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND 
IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUES NIGHT...MVFR IN THE EVENING...BCMG VFR BY LATE. N-NW WINDS 
G25-35KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. 
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WNDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING 
SNOW. NORTH WINDS BACK TO NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. 
GUSTS 30-40KT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST 
SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT KISP AND KGON...WITH RATES OF 2-4 INCH PER 
HOUR. THESE HIGH RATES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. LIGHTER SNOW 
EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS.  

SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH 
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH 
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW 
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH 
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH 
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW 
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH 
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH 
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW 
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH 
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY.  

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH 
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW 
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH 
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS:  LIGHT SNOW WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL 
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT IFR OR LESS CONDITIONS FOR MUCH 
OF THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR A FEW 
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH 
PER HOUR THROUGH THE DAY. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
AT LEAST 12Z. EXPECT SUB-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH IFR OR LESS. 
SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.
.THU NGT...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LGT SN. 
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN LGT SN IN THE AM. VFR WITH NW WINDS G25-30KT IN
THE AFTN.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
970S LOW WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE CONDS TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO SCA LVLS TONIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4
TO 8 FT ON THE SOUND.

CONDS WILL BECOME SUB-ADVY BY WED EVENING AS THE STORM CONTINUES
TO PULL AWAY AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
TRANQUIL CONDS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES
OHD AND THEN OFFSHORE. GALES ARE LIKELY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRIDAY AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE W. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES WITH THE
BLIZZARD.

LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BE BRING UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RAIN FOR THE COAST.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT ON THE CENTRAL SOUND AND NEAR 10 FT 4 NM
SOUTH OF FIRE ISLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS BLIZZARD STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DELIVER A TOP TEN
SNOWFALL FOR NYC. HERE ARE THE CURRENT TOP TEN SNOWFALLS FOR THE
CITY...


AMOUNT        DATES

26.9          FEB 11-12 2006
25.8          DEC 26-27 1947
21.0          MAR 12-13 1888
20.9          FEB 25-26 2010
20.2          JAN 7-8   1996
20.0          DEC 26-27 2010
19.8          FEB 16-17 2003
19.0          JAN 26-27 2011
18.1          JAN 22-24 1935 AND MARCH 7-8 1941
18.0          DEC 26    1872

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009-
     010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-
     081.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ067-068.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-
     073-078-176-177.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-340-345-
     353-355.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-338.
     HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/TONGUE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...






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