Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 282109
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND PASS
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...THEN YET ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCT-BKN STRATOCU...EVEN A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DRIFTING SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CT TOWARD THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS
EVEN...SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THEN
TEMPS SHOULD DROP UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT FROM NYC WEST...SO SIDED WITH WARMER
MET GUIDANCE THERE FOR LOWS...AND WITH A MAV/MET BLEND ELSEWHERE.
COLDEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT WITH 10-15.
NYC METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD SEE LOWER 20S...WITH
OTHER SPOTS 15-20. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALSO A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NW OF NYC. 
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...MAINLY 35-40. 

AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NE SAT NIGHT AT LEAST
ALOFT...CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES WILL SHIFT OVER TO SOUTHERN
CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HOWEVER
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC...WHERE WEAK
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE SOME PATCHY
LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH/WEST OF NYC. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE 
CONUS THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW BEING INTERRUPTED BY A 
COUPLE OF PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS SUN AND THEN SWINGING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT. A RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK JUST 
TO THE NORTH OF THAT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH 
SUN AND THEN ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUN NIGHT AND THEN CROSSING 
MONDAY. FORCING IS WEAK ON SUNDAY...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW/MID 
LEVEL WAA AND SATURATION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE 
CLOUDINESS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF 
TRI-STATE. 

SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CAA ON GUSTY 
NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAKING ITS CLOSEST 
APPROACH LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AND REGION UNDER RIGHT REAR QUAD 
LIFT OF STRONG UPPER JET...A LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT 
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP EXISTS BEFORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS PUSHES 
OFFSHORE LATER MON NIGHT. CMC ENSEMBLE...GEFS...AND THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN MON AFT...BUT THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BEFORE ENDING MON NIGHT. LITTLE TO
ACCUM EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAIN SHUNTED WELL TO
THE NORTH...BUT TEMPS SHOULD FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUES MORNING.

MODERATING POLAR HIGH BUILDS IN TUESDAY...WITH DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY 
COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN 10 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL...WITH HIGH GENERALLY IN THE 30S.        

UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS 
MODELS DIFFER IN THE INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND 
A CLOSED POLAR LOW NW OF HUDSON BAY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH  
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE CMC/ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE 
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS INTERACTION...PIVOTING A PHASED AND STRONG 
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT. THE GFS IS TAME WITH THIS 
INTERACTIONS AND SIGNALING A PRACTICALLY FLAT UPPER FLOW...WHILE 
THE GEFS DEPICTS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LIKE CMC/ECMWF 
ENSEMBLES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AS DEPICTED 
BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A RETURN FLOW 
TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF EXITING POLAR HIGH AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE 
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...SHOULD SPELL AN INCREASING CHANCE 
FOR PRECIP TUES NIGHT INTO WED. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT WINTRY 
PRECIP TO START TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN FROM S 
TO N ON WED. COLD AIR DAMMING COULD MAKE FZRA STUBBORN ACROSS 
INTERIOR TRI-STATE ON WED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT WED NIGHT AS THE 
SHORTWAVE AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH...WITH ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CAA IN 
ITS WAKE. 

MODERATED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WITH DRY 
AND BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. 

MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PAC SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED QUICK 
MOVING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LATE WEEK...BUT TIMING INTO REGION 
DIFFERS FROM THU INTO FRI BASED ON ABOVE MENTIONED DIFFERENCES WITH 
THE PRIOR NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. HAVING FAVORED MORE AMPLIFIED 
AND SLOWER PATTERN...HAVE DELAYED CHANCE POPS WITH THE NEXT 
SHORTWAVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT. 

VFR. NW WINDS MOSTLY FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS SHOULD
END BETWEEN 23Z-01Z. 

BY LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 10 KT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT-SUN...VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES. 
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AT KSWF...OTHERWISE CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VFR.
.WED...CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS. 

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE EVENING ON THE OUTER
OCEAN WATERS...SO SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM. SCA ON THE ERN
SOUND/BAYS WAS ALSO EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM. QUIET CONDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 

INCREASING SW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER PD OF SCA CONDS ON THE
OCEAN AND POSSIBLY THE ERN SOUND/BAYS SAT NIGHT. 

SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH MARGINAL SW SCA WINDS
CONTINUING. SSW SCA SWELLS COULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN... 
PARTICULARLY EAST...INTO MON AFTERNOON. SCA SEAS COULD CONTINUE
INTO MON NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL NW SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN WAKE OF A MON AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

SUB SCA CONDS THEN EXPECTED BY TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS...WITH NEXT CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE ON
THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
     340.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/NV






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy