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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241434
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW 
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION 
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION 
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS 
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. 

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
SUNNY AND WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX
WIND SPEED IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW
40KT. PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY
AT ANY PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C. 
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG 
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR 
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. 
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE 
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY 
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE 
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE 
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF 
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON 
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND 
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD 
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW 
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF 
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT... 
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH 
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN 
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z 
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT 
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND 
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO 
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE 
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS 
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR 
ABOVE TODAY'S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE 
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE 
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF 
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY 
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS. 

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR 
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. 

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY 
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES 
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

NW WINDS WITH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BE 
JUST  RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC. GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS VEER TO THE SE FRI MRNG WITH 
SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 
  
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE NEAR-SHORE IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVER THE WATERS COULD LIMIT
GUST POTENTIAL FARTHER OFFSHORE. 

SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL
WATERS...THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN 
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL 
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS 
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH 
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1 
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL 
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
     078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-
     006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...MMD/BG/BC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW/JMC
MARINE...MMD/BG/BC/JC 
FIRE WEATHER...MMD/BG/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC







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