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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 161305
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
905 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES 
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH LIFT IN THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MID
AND UPPER LIFT EXITS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH
SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE...ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-800MB 
LAYER LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AND WITHOUT A STRONG 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFTERNOON ENDS UP WITH
CLOUDS OUTWEIGHING BLUE SKY FOR MOST SPOTS. A FULL-SUN AFTERNOON 
WOULD PRODUCE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE WARMEST AREAS GIVEN 8-9C 850MB 
TEMPS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH NAM MOS...BUT CONSIDERING THE CLOUD 
COVER...WENT WITH A NEAR-EVEN BLEND OF NAM AND MAV MOS AS THE MAVS 
LOOKED A LITTLE TOO COOL. 

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC 
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE 
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS 
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR 
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A 
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE 
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S 
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM 
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG 
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. 
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES 
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH 
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE 
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. 
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON 
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S 
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN 
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES 
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK 
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. 
THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR 
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND. 
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL 
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER 
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL 
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND 
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING
WILL TAKING PLACE. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS MAY BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT 
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL 
VARY AS THE TROUGH NEARS. A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE WEST OR NW IS 
POSSIBLE BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS 
AFTERNOON. THEN A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY TO THE NW. 
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TODAY.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND FOR
WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. 
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...HOWEVER SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL 
BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA 
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL 
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI 
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. NO RAINFALL IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS/PW
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...JC/24/JM









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