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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 152338
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT DEEPENS OFF
THE NE ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES FURTHER
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CWA REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRES NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND HI PRES OVER
THE MS VALLEY. FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK THIS EVE. HOURLY TEMPS
DROPPED OFF FASTER THAN FORECAST SO HAVE ADJUSTED BASED ON OBS AND
TRENDS. LOWS STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF WINDS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVE AND SHOULD CEASE COMPLETELY AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 06Z DUE TO A
WEAKENING PRES GRAD. PEAK GUSTS THIS EVE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE EARLY.

PCPN REMAINS E OF THE AREA...SO DRY FORECAST REMAINS VALID.

LOWS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...AS LGT MIXING MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM
TOTALLY BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSIENT HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS THRU THE CWA DURING THE DAY...THEN
OFFSHORE BY EVE. LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL SO FCST TEMPS RIGHT
ABOUT CLIMO. DESPITE THE DRY LLVLS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO
30...BKN-OVC SKIES BY AFTN WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EVIDENT ON STLT OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.

NWRN PAC SHRTWV THEN BECOMES ENTRAINED WITH THE NRN STREAM AND
APPROACHES LATE MON NGT. THIS FEATURE WAS JUST MAKING IT ONTO THE
WA COAST SUN AFTN. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHC FOR SHWRS FROM W TO E
AFT MIDNIGHT. BL TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABV FREEZING ATTM...SO
MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT OR
IN THE MID LVLS TO PRODUCE A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW MIX OVER
INTERIOR. EVEN IF THERE WAS SOME MIXING...NO ACCUMS EXPECTED.
TEMPS A BLEND OF THE GMOS AND NAM 2M DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY ON
TUE AS A VORTEX MEANDERS ABOUT HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. A JET STREAK TRAVERSING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL SPAWN LOW
PRES ALONG A SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH WED.
GUIDANCE IS WETTER WITH THE FROPA TODAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AS
A RESULT. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE RAIN. ONCE THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST A STRONG PRES GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. IT WILL ALSO BECOME COLDER TUE NIGHT AS
H85 TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -16C AND -18C. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP
KEEPING WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 20F AND 25F...BUT WIND
CHILLS EARLY WED MORNING WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO
THE LOWER TEENS NEAR THE COAST. DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS THROUGH
AT LEAST THU NIGHT WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN.

THE MODELS BEGIN TO GO AWRY WITH THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
REGARDS TO THE HUDSON BAY LOW...BUT DESPITE THIS THE CMC...EC AND
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM
FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME MOVES LITTLE THROUGH 00Z 
TUESDAY WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO 
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND CONTINUES THROUGH 05Z...AROUND 310 TRUE WITH 
SUSTAINED WIND 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. THE GUSTS AND WIND 
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND 05Z...WITH THE WIND 10 KT OR LESS.

THE WIND REMAINS LIGHT INTO MONDAY AND A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY AT 
KJFK...DEVELOPING AROUND 19Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SEA BREEZE 
PUSHING INTO KLGA AND KISP...HOWEVER WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST...210 
TO 240 TRUE AFTER 20Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...VFR EARLY...THEN LOWERING TO MVFR OR 
LOWER POSSIBLE IN -SHRA NEAR THE COAST AND -SHRA/-SHSN ACROSS THE 
INTERIOR.
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR. WNW-W WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN SN AND RA.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40
KT AT 23Z...THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING ON ALL NON-
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO END TIME OF GALES ON
THE OCEAN WATERS...REMAINS MIDNIGHT AS WELL.

NW FLOW WILL DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT. SCA COND LINGER FOR THE REST
OF THE NGT...THEN WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS MON AND MON NGT.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MON EVE INTO WED NIGHT DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF CAA AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS LOW PRES
DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. SCA LIKELY...GALES POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SUB-
ADVSY CONDS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THU.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WHERE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR 
WEB SITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$




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