000
FGUS71 KOKX 181458
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-302300-

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EDT THU APR 18 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. 

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM 
APRIL 22ND THROUGH APRIL 26TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 24TH THROUGH APRIL 30TH SUGGESTS BELOW 
NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - THIS MONTH SO FAR...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE 
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAS BEEN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

RIVER ICE - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NO RIVERS
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY ICE.
 
SNOW - CURRENTLY WITHIN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...THERE IS NO 
SNOW COVER.

STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND
BY VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE ABOUT 3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD TEMPERATURES 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS 
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT: 
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.


$$