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Hydrologic Outlook
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000
FGUS71 KOKX 141614
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-281615-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1114 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 1...

THIS IS THE FIRST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES
OF ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. 

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM JANUARY 19TH THROUGH THE 23RD SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM JANUARY 21ST THROUGH
THE 27TH SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN 1 TO
2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ACROSS NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAS BEEN AROUND 1 INCH BELOW
NORMAL. 

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SNOW - SNOW DEPTH SINCE JANUARY 12TH WAS ZERO TO A TRACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THIS WAS AROUND NORMAL. WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS LESS THAN 0.5 INCH WHERE SNOW PACK EXISTED.

BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED
DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE 5 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND 2
PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THROUGH THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK
PERIOD. THE LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY EXTENDED WEATHER OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SUGGEST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE..ON THURSDAY JANUARY 22ND, 2015.

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