000
FGUS71 KOKX 041509
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-181515-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT THU APR 4 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. 

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM APRIL 9TH THROUGH APRIL 13TH SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORMAL ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 11TH
THROUGH APRIL 17TH SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAS BEEN BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL.

RIVER ICE - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NO RIVERS
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY ICE.
 
SNOW - DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH SNOW TOTALS WERE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENTLY WITHIN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA...THERE IS NO SNOW COVER.

STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND
BY VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE ABOUT 4 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
9 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE SECOND WEEK OF
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THE WEATHER PATTERN
INDICATES FREQUENT BUT RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING STORMS. THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY APRIL 18TH, 2013.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.


$$

LN