000
FGUS71 KOKX 211342
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-041345-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
942 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2013

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE SIXTH SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IN A SERIES OF ROUTINE
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING)
OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. 

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM MARCH 26TH THROUGH MARCH 30TH SUGGESTS THAT BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 28TH THROUGH
APRIL 3RD SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - THIS MONTH TO DATA PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

RIVER ICE - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NO RIVERS
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY ICE.
 
SNOW - DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH SNOW TOTALS WERE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENTLY WITHIN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
SNOW COVER IS LIMITED TO EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND CONNECTICUT.

STREAMFLOW - NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY
VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.

SOIL MOISTURE - NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE ABOUT 2 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
10 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - DURING THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THE WEATHER PATTERN INDICATES FREQUENT BUT
RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING STORMS. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY APRIL 4TH, 2013.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.


$$