000
FGUS71 KOKX 072256
ESFOKX
CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-212300-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 PM EST THU MAR 7 2013

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE FIFTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING. 

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM MARCH 13TH THROUGH MARCH 17TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 15TH
THROUGH MARCH 21ST SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - NEAR NORMAL IN MOST OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS WERE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE
WERE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
PRECIPITATION WAS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

RIVER ICE - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NO RIVERS
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTED BY ICE.
 
SNOW - SNOW DEPTH ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SNOW DEPTH AS OF MARCH 7TH. HOWEVER...IN TERMS OF TOTAL SEASONAL
SNOWFALL...MOST WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION ARE BELOW NORMAL
WHILE MOST EASTERN SECTIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY
ON LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

STREAMFLOW - MAINLY NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS REPORTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND
BY VISITING THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) WEB PAGES AT
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/.

SOIL MOISTURE - BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOIL MOISTURE AND
DROUGHT RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING AND
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE ABOUT 1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
10 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - MORE SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA FROM MARCH 7TH INTO MARCH 8TH.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
OVERALL...FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ON AVERAGE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY MARCH 21ST, 2013.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WEATHER.GOV/NYC.

$$