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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 302233
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING AS PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF THE REGION...WITH ONE VORT MAX EAST OF CONNECTICUT AND
AN UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX WEST...ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. 

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION. AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT. POPS
WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY ACROSS THESE AREAS. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS
NYC...NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...POPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS HIGH...AND WILL LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE NAM WAS AN OUTLIER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMING CLOSE TO OR
EXCEEDING AN INCH OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWED MORE OF A GFS/SREF/CMC BLEND WITH GAVE THE EASTERN
SECTIONS AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES 
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET 
BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS OCCURS DUE TO
ITS MESOSCALE NATURE. THE 12Z MODELS HINT THAT IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...WITH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND CT.

CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME AIR
WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY.

POPS CONTINUES TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AND
PUSHES EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. LGT RAIN CHCS 
REMAIN EARLY THU WITH THE BACKDOOR CDFNT...THEN HI PRES IS PROGGED 
TO KEEP THE CWA DRY THRU FRI. THE CFP AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL ARE 
STILL LINED UP FOR SAT. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 
THIS TIMING. POPS REMAIN LIKELY. TRIMMED BACK POPS FRI NGT AS MOST 
OF THE PCPN IS TARGETED FOR SAT. DRY FOR SUN WITH ALL OF THE 
MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF INTO ERN CANADA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S STILL ON 
TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RAIN CHCS FOR THE BEGINNING OF 
NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPR TROF APPROACHING. KEPT THE TIMING IN THE 
GRIDS MAINLY MON-MON NGT CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE 
ECMWF HOWEVER IS TRENDING SLOWER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE REGION WITH A GENERAL E-NE 
FLOW DURING TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO 
LOCALIZED IFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FURTHER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED 
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS TREND BACK DOWN TONIGHT WITH 
MORE LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY EAST OF CITY TERMINALS AND GENERALLY 
LIGHT...BECOMES MORE STEADY LATER TONIGHT AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY 
HEAVY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE RAIN COULD MOVE AS FAR AS 
WEST AS CITY TERMINALS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SO 
EXCLUDED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS AND NORTH 
AND WEST AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND IFR AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. MVFR TIMING COULD BE
OFF BY 1-3 HOURS. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR
COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED-WED NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN. E-NE WINDS 10-15 
WITH G 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
.THU...CHC MVFR MAINLY AM. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.FRI...VFR. SE-S WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
.SAT...RAIN LIKELY - MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SE WIND 10-15G20 KT.
.SUN...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT HAS ALLOWED SEAS ON
THE OCEAN WATERS TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
INCREASED SEAS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AREA WATERS REMAIN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND AN OFFSHORE LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THE OCEAN...SCA SEAS LIKELY THU-THU NGT. THEY MAY FALL BLW 5FT BY 
FRI...BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP THRU THE WEEKEND. 
ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS THU...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 
BLW FRI. SCA WINDS LIKELY SAT AND SUN. SCA COND POSSIBLE ALL WATERS 
AGAIN ON MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NYC...NORTHEASTERN
NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS. NO
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THU. AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN 
POSSIBLE ON SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$





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