000
FXUS61 KOKX 250107
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ON A COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY...THEN WEAKENS
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BY
MID WEEK...MOVING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH...THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS TONIGHT BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
SATURATED LOW/MID LEVELS WITH WEAK LIFT AND HIGHER PVA ALOFT THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCNL SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO T/TD GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER SFC CONDS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASE AND KEEP MORE MIXING CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MAV/MET BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS WHICH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY 
WHILE DEEPENING WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS OUR 
REGION. A MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IS IN STORE ALONG WITH 
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND COLD POOL 
ALOFT. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS STARTS TO DEEPEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE. 
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40-50 KT DEVELOPS NEAR 925 MB AND WITH 
EXPECTATION OF GOOD MIXING THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL COULD REACH 40-45 
KT. THIS IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH NAM 
BUFKIT KEEPING IT MORE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A 
GOOD 10 KT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND IS A FEW KTS BELOW 
CRITERIA BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SITES COULD SEE GUSTS IN 
THE 40-45 KT RANGE SATURDAY...PROBABLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO 
EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND WEAK 
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MUCAPE OF ALMOST 100 J/KG. THEREFORE...ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND WITH THE MUCH COLDER TEMPS 
ALOFT...HENCE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.

A MAV/MET/NAM12 BLEND USED FOR HIGHS BUT ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH 
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN URBAN NORTHEAST NEW 
JERSEY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ADVECTIONS DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY WITH UPPER 
LEVEL LOW STACKING AND SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF MAINE HALTING IN 
FURTHER DEEPENING...LOSING STRUCTURE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN. 
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MATERIALIZE WITH POPS GRADUALLY 
LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MAV/MET BLEND USED ONCE AGAIN. LOWS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER CLOSED LOW 
OPENS...EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
BUILDS...WITH IT/S AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
WEEK.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. A WARM 
FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF SFC FEATURES WITH 
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES NOTED ALOFT. WILL FOLLOW WPC WITH THE FORECAST AT 
THIS TIME...WHICH LEANS TOWARD ECMWF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...IN THE NW 
TO SE UPPER FLOW AS THE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...NOT TOO 
SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE...BUT WILL 
NEED TO INTRODUCE POPS LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

WEAK LOW ON THE FRONT MOVES EAST WED AS THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE 
NORTH. VORTICITY ADVECTION RIDES ALONG THE NW/SE UPPER FLOW...WITH 
POTENTIAL HIGHER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH 
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY 
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AS 
SUCH...AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS WARRANTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT 
CHANCE AT BEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPS STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AS COLD POOL SLOWLY LOSES IT/S 
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS OF 50S AT NIGHT 
AND 70S DURING THE DAY WILL SLOWLY WARM UP BY LATE WEEK AS RIDGE 
AXIS MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL...OR AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE SOUTH FACING 
SHORES LOOKS REASONABLE PER WPC/EC MOS LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME TNGT AND
SAT.

EXPECT A STRONG NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE
LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS RAMPING UP DURING THE DAY ON
SAT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT IN THE AFT. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIND DIRECTION RIGHT AROUND 330 TRUE.

CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
VFR BY 18Z SAT. NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS MAY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IN SHRA SAT WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF WINDS BACKING AROUND
310-320 TRUE SAT AFT. AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR. 

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH THE TIMING OF CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE SHOWERS. NW GUSTS AROUND
35 KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 30-35KT.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE INVOF A WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDS TONIGHT AND GALES ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEEPENING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT LOW WEAKENS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 5-8 FT RANGE FOR THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS IN TIME TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST 
AS SPEEDS DIMINISH. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TUE AND WED 
WITH SOUTH TO EAST WINDS PREVAILING THIS TIME FRAME.

ROUGH OCEAN SEAS PER WAVE WATCH III EARLY SUNDAY WILL SUBSIDE AS THE 
STORM DEPARTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH WITH LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NO FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$