Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 272057
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL END ACROSS
EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AS AN UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE NC
COAST AND MOVES NE. MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NW FROM THIS LOW TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CT DEPENDING ON WHERE IT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER UPPER LVL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF NYC...WHICH IS WHY A 20 PCT POP WAS
INCLUDED AREA WIDE.

MELTED SNOW WILL RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL MAINLY INTO
THE 20S EXCEPT RIGHT AROUND 30 DEGS IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES SYS WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LVL TROUGH BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
TO START THE DAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD DAY IS ON TAP WITH TEMPS AVERAGING ARND 10 DEGS BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AS HIGH PRES PASSES OVERHEAD. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AREA WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING 
FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. PAC 
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH POLAR JET ENERGY WITH A COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON...AND ANOTHER WED AFT/EVE. LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WARM ADVECTION PCPN PRECEDES EACH SYSTEM WITH A BRIEF MIX 
OF FROZEN PCPN AT THE ONSET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE 
THERMO PROFILES WARM. SUN MORNING AND TUE NIGHT ARE THE TIMES OF 
INTEREST. THE LATTER IS POTENTIALLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THE TWO 
AS IT PRECEDED BY A TRANSIENT 1045 MB HIGH MOVING ACROSS NEW 
ENGLAND. WARM SECTOR RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE EACH COLD 
FRONT.

FOR THE MOST PART...LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH 
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW...THE EXCEPTION BEING SAT AT 
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH RESIDUAL COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND TUE 
FOLLOWING THE MON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SMALL TIMING 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE 
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE 
NE ON WED. THUS...IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND 
AMOUNT OF QPF. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
NEARBY. 

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL 
PREVAIL...BUT WITH TEMPO MVFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MVFR PREVAILS 
INSTEAD...WITH TEMPO VFR. AFTER AROUND 01Z-03Z CONFIDENCE OF 
PREVAILING VFR INCREASES.

WINDS PRIMARILY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION SHOULD FAVOR NORTH OF 310
MAGNETIC. HOWEVER...AT KEWR...IT PROBABLY FAVORS SOUTH OF 310.

FOR FRIDAY...VFR AND NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRI THROUGH TUE...
.FRI-SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL NEAR AND SHORT TERM FORECAST CHANGES WERE MADE.

ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE CANCELLED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FROM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK
PT...WHERE THEY WERE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT...
6 AM - 7 PM FRI FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY
6 AM - MIDNIGHT SAT FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EAST TO MONTAUK
PT...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND GARDINERS AND PECONIC BAYS

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

OCEAN SEAS/WINDS COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA SEAS MAY LINGER ON
THE OCEAN INTO MON. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM MON NIGHT
INTO TUE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GC/DW
HYDROLOGY...GC/DW










National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy