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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 022355
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
755 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN BUILDS EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EAST AND STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY AROUND
8 PM...CROSSING NYC METRO BETWEEN 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT...AND EASTERN
LI/SE CT 2 TO 5 AM. 

THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEEP AND LOW- LEVEL
SHEAR AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD FRONT APPROACH...HOWEVER
INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL TO MARGINAL
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE PASS MAINLY NW OF THE AREA...PERHAPS
CLIPPING NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...BETTER
LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE TSTM MAINTENANCE INTO THIS EVENING LOOK TO
BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. BUT WITH LLJ MAINTAINING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 2 AM. 

A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
LOW FOR OUR REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN THREATS...PARTICULARLY FROM NYC/NJ METRO AND POINTS
N&W. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS
EAST INTO LI/CT AS IT GETS FARTHER AWAY FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR.

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUBURBS...TO AROUND 70 NYC
METRO. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WARM...BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE FEATURED ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NW WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF
INTO THE 50S.

LOWS WED NIGHT WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO RESIDUAL ONSHORE SWELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR 
DRY CONDITIONS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL TRANSITION TO SOME 
WEAK RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW THE 
FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FRIDAY 
NIGHT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST 
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR 
AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S. 
SOME LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY .

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH LOW 
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES 
THROUGH...LEADING TO DIFFERENCES IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME 
THOUGH...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. 

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY...ENDING SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT. 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR 
AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP 
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE 
70S...WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THOUGH
IN THE GENERAL TIME WINDOW OF 0130-0330Z FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS...KHPN AND KSWF WHERE THERE IS A ONE HOUR TEMPO FOR
TSRA...02-03Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH A S-SW FLOW AROUND
10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE BECOMES MORE W-NW
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE SAME SUSTAINED SPEEDS.
W-NW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME BACKING OF
FLOW TO W-SW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. TIMING OF SW
WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF -TSRA COULD DIFFER +/- 1 HOUR
FROM TAF AND COULD LAST AN EXTRA HOUR THAN IN TAF. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FUTURE AMENDMENTS COULD INCLUDE A ONE HOUR
TEMPO FOR -TSRA DEPENDING ON HOW THEY EVOLVE OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE W-SW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WED WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE OCEAN
TONIGHT...KEEPING SEAS AT 2 TO 4 FT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON ALL
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY MOVING 
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC/JM
MARINE...JP/DW
HYDROLOGY...JP/DW








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