000
FXUS61 KOKX 241205
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY
KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL REFORM OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE
INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 500
HPA SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DESCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH ENDING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW TO MID LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL AT BEST END UP WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL
INSOLATION...EVEN WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND 6C...WILL ONLY
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF 12KM NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WITH MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...THEN DIVERGE IN HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW FOR LATER THIS
WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH BET FIT WITH CONTINUITY ARE THE
SREF/ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE GFS. AS A RESULT FOLLOWED A
NAM/GFS BLEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SREF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRENGTHENING OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DAMMING HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN
AT BEST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABSENT ANY FORCING...THEN A PASSING 500 AND 700
HPA SHORTWAVE...ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN (AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT (LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT).

FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
LOWS TONIGHT (ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...COOLER MET NUMBERS
WITH CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY (SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)...WARMER MAV
NUMBERS WITH CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT (ONCE AGAIN ROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND COOLER MET NUMBERS THURSDAY (CLOUD COVER
AND DEVELOPING LIGHT RAIN) - ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND
USED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT (5 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FROM A CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY PERSPECTIVE FAVORED THE ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. DO NOTE THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SO THIS IS AT BEST A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAK RIDGING SUNDAY
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING 500/700 HPA SHORTWAVE ON
MONDAY.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...IT SHOULD BE WET FROM FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY AS LOW
PULLS OF TO THE NORTHEAST. ENOUGH COLD AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY IN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THAT THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR. IT
SHOULD THEN BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AHEAD OF ADVANCING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND TO FIT
WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE 
PASSES WELL EAST RESULTING IN MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW. BIG QUESTION 
WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CLOUDS/CEILINGS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE 
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION KEEPING 
CIGS BETWEEN 1-3KFT. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. 
THERE IS A CHANCE WE LOSE SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS.

A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND GRADUALLY DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE 
TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH CIGS FALLING TO POSSIBLY 
IFR. 

MVFR/IFR CIGS HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD LINGER 
TOWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY. 
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC        
     24/12Z 02012KT    
     24/13Z 02011KT    
     24/14Z 02010KT    
     24/15Z 02010KT 
     24/16Z 02009KT    
     24/17Z 02008KT    
     24/18Z 02008KT    
     24/19Z 02008KT    
     24/20Z 02008KT    
     24/21Z 03008KT    

KJFK...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY. 
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KLGA...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KTEB...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY. 
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KHPN...EARLY IFR CIGS STARTING TO APPEAR LESS LIKELY. 
CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KSWF...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KISP...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KBDR...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

KGON...CEILINGS COULD SCATTER TO VFR AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE 
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.

FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT. 

SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TODAY WITH ALLOW FOR 
THE DISCONTINUANCE OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR WINDS BY 
LATE AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY...WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE ONLY GUSTING TO 
AROUND 20 KT...BUT STILL FORECASTING MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE 
SOUND OF 20 TO 25 KT TO PREVAIL. THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL REQUIRE A 
CONVERSION TO SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TONIGHT AS SEAS OVER 5 FT DO 
NOT SUBSIDE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.  FOR NOW...HAVE EXTENDED THE 
GENERIC SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.  

NEXT EVENT IS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE 
RESULTS IN STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. GALES ARE LIKELY FROM 
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY ON ALL WATERS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
STORM FORCE SATURDAY MORNING. 

LASTLY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.   

NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY IS CURRENTLY OUT OF SERVICE. THE 
BUOY SOUTH OF MONTAUK HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR REPAIRS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A
HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JST
HYDROLOGY...PFM