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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 031430
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATE IN 
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN 
CANADA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG OFF THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND IS/HAS LIFTED. ANOTHER HOT
LATE SUMMER DAY WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY. HIGHS AROUND 90 IN/AROUND
NYC AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S...THUS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE NEAR THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE.

HAVE DROPPED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING BASED ON
LATEST SHORT TERM NWP AND SURFACE FRONT STILL BACK IN CANADA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
PUSHING SOUTH THEN KEEPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SOME
SECTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE SW
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PRIMARILY NE NJ AND THE CITY. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...
SURFACE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HOWEVER SHOWING SOME LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SO SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD BE 7-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S IN MOST CASES.

ALTHOUGH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S...GUSTY
EAST WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY POSE A ENHANCED CONCERN FOR SPREAD
OF BRUSH FIRES DUE TO 400-500 KBDI VALUES AND AVAILABLE FINE
FUELS. ALONG THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...BUILDS OVER THE EAST 
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING THROUGH NEW 
ENGLAND. WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...A 
TIGHTENING EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A 
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...TOPPING OFF IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FOR
SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

BERMUDA HIGH PRES THEN STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH 
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HIGHS ON 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND 
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR NYC AND NE NJ. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE 
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 
60S FOR LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.

THE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE 
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON 
WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. 

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO
HAZE. ALSO...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. UNSURE IF THE SEABREEZE REACHES KTEB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS EVENING...THEN
BECOME NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEABREEZE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF
SEABREEZE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SEABREEZE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CITY TERMINALS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. E-NE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG SOUTH THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE BY
NOON. 

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS
THEN PICK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE COULD BE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER THE OCEAN WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD RISE TO 5 FT BY EVENING AS WELL OVER
THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WEAKER AND
LATER WITH INCREASING WINDS...PLUS WAVEWATCH HAS DELAYED THE ONSET
OF 5 FT SEAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. ADD TO THIS THAT WOULD
BE A LATE THIRD-PERIOD EVENT...WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON SCA
ISSUANCE FOR NOW AND LET THE DAY SHIFT SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE AND
ISSUE SCA AS NECESSARY.

A TIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS ON 
SATURDAY...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY 
ON THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP REGION WIDE. 
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS



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