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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241737
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY DUE TO AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR REGION...SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING TO THE WEST...AND NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WITH CAA AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID
40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST AS THE FRONT APPEARS WILL COME THROUGH DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPO MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND DISTANT ATLANTIC LOW. VFR
EXPECTED REGIONWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL KEEP A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT UNTIL
TONIGHT.

NW FLOW/GUSTS TO 25KT THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT
OF 310 MAGNETIC.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND REMAINING RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL MOVE NE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
THEREFORE..THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25
KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. 

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
REMAIN ON THE REST OF THE WATERS.

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MPS
NEAR TERM...BC/MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/FIG/MPS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MPS








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