440 
FXUS61 KOKX 202003
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
403 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. 
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL A COLD 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR 
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PTCLDY TO MOCLDY SKIES OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG...BUT ACARS SOUNDING INTO
KLGA SHOWS ENOUGH OF A CAP TO PREVENT AUTO-CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZED SOURCE OF LIFT NOT PRESENT WITH SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE
WEST OVER WRN PA AND WARM FRONT WELL INTO NEW ENGLAND. STILL BLYR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MY FORCE AN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER OR
TSTM INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND NORTH/WEST
OF NYC. 

FOG BANK S OF LONG ISLAND SHOULD EXPAND N-WARD INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS TONIGHT. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVY BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT FOR
SAME AREAS AS LAST NIGHT...EVENING CREW MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE
AREAL EXTENT AND/OR START TIMES BASED ON OBS. 

LOWS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO JUICY MID AFTN DEWPOINTS IN MOST
PLACES...MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 60S...EXCEPT MID/UPPER 60S IN NYC. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON TUE AS RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF UPSTREAM TROUGH...THEN DROP S INTO
SOUTHERN CT AND PERHAPS ERN LONG ISLAND TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND LATE TUE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN A GENERAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDER LATER TUE NIGHT. 

TUE SHOULD FEATURE MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY AFTER MORNING FOG
BURNS OFF...AND WITH ARE MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF WRN
LONG ISLAND...AND 70S IN COASTAL CT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP TUE NIGHT...MAINLY LATER AT
NIGHT AS IT WILL TAKE BLYR LONGER TO COOL DOWN CLOSER TO
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE 
WEEK. LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH UPPER RIDING OVER THE AREA WITH 
A MIDWEST TROUGH BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH A CANADIAN TROUGH. A WARM 
FRONT WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM 
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MIDWEST. 

A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS 
ON WEDNESDAY TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE 
OF HIGH TEMP VALUES ON WED...NAM 2M TEMPS HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S 
OUT WEST...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD 
COVER. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET...NOT AS WARM AS THE
NAM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE WARM 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ML AND SFC CAPE WEST 
OF NYC WILL BE REACHING ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 
DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...LIFT MAY 
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. ANY 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW ABOVE 
1.5 INCHES. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN WED AS THERE IS SOME 
DISCREPANCY ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPROACHING THE AREA AND THE 
COVERAGE OF IT. 

DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND TRACKS 
EAST WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE INTO CANADA AND 
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF IT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY 
EVENING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT...ONCE 
AGAIN TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE 
SLIGHTLY LESS THAT WED BUT BETTER LIFT WILL BE EVIDENT. STILL NOT 
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BUT MAY SEE STRONG STORMS THAT WED. DO 
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE 
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS RIGHT AT 
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI-MON. 
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING US IN THE WARM MOIST AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS.

CONDITIONS NEAR OR BELOW MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY MORNING. 

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN CIG AT 030 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 6 PM.
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO GUST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...BUT
DIRECTION WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 230-270. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WND FCST THIS EVENING.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OFF THE OCEAN AS SOON 
AS 22Z. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. LOW IFR MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BKN CIG AT 030 WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF 
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. COULD BE BELOW MINIMUMS IN THE MORNING. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF 
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS. COULD BE BELOW MINIMUMS IN THE MORNING. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: FOG/STRATUS MAY MOVE IN EARLIER THAN FCST.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS. COULD BE BELOW MINIMUMS IN THE MORNING. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.TUE AFTN...VFR. SCT TSTMS NORTH. 
.TUE NGT...BECOMING IFR WITH FOG AND STRATUS. 
.WED-FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS. AT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE 
WITH STRATUS/FOG. 
.SAT...VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT...SO SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...AND THROUGH THE NIGHT E TO MONTAUK. DENSE FOG CONTINUES
AND HAVE RE-ISSUED ADVY THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE DENSE FOG COULD
LAST ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING. 

SEAS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED VIA A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS COULD BE ABOVE 5 FT BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY
WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE ON FRI. WINDS COULD BE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FROPA AND THE INCREASE OF WINDS ON WED. 


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
ALSO LATE DAY TUE...MAINLY INLAND. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WED-THU WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL...WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH/WEST OF NYC. TOTAL BASIN
AVG QPF FOR WED-THU COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS IN TSTMS. 

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY 
     FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY 
     FOR NYZ071-078>081-177-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT TUESDAY 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT 
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/LN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...TONGUE
MARINE...GOODMAN/LN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/LN