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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231733
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
133 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MONTAUK WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY TODAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN THE MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEARLY STACKED LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK TODAY. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND
OF SHOWERS PIVOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...SO EXPECTING LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGH TEMP FORECAST
A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST SPOTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND OBS.

NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
TONIGHT...TRACKING NE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THINGS WILL
BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM W TO E THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS.
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRI. 

WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND FRI. CHILLY TONIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT WARMER ON
FRI GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY 
BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING 
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE...AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF 
H5 SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. STRONG NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH 15-20 MPH WINDS WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS. 

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AND 
THEN DEPARTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE 
AND TEMPS WILL BE MILD...TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOMETIME LATE IN THE 
NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE 
NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS TO THE WEST FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE 
NORTHEAST.

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A CHANCE OF VFR CEILINGS 
BRIEFLY UNTIL AFTER 20Z WHEN CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR 
OR HIGH END MVFR...AROUND 30K FT. STEADY RAIN ACROSS NEW JERSEY 
TERMINALS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG LIKELY. WIDESPREAD VFR 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED 23Z TO 03Z. 

STRONG AND GUSTY N TO NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT...WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT 
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTS ENDING AFTER 05Z.

VFR FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING.



   NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR
TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH 
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF 
AN HOUR OR TWO. STRONG WINDS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAG.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH 
IMPROVEMENT LATE. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF 
AN HOUR OR TWO.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WITH 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE 
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO THIS 
EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS EVENING.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WIND G20-25KT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK...THEN TRACK NE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND AT THE SAME TIME...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OTHER
WATERS. 

SCA GUSTS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN AFTER GALES SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER INTO FRI AFTN. SUB
ADVSY CONDS ELSEWHERE.

MARGINAL SCA CONDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
TIGHT NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS
LIKELY...AND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY. TRANQUIL CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CITY.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH 
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ON AVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE A QUARTER 
TO HALF FOOT LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. IN SPITE OF SOME LONG PERIOD 
SE SWELLS DEVELOPING...THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COMBINED WITH A 
PROLONGED MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY 
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BACKS OF LONG 
ISLAND AND QUEENS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...24/MPS
HYDROLOGY...24/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC









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