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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250755
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH 
THE MAIN PART OF IT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH THEN FOLLOWS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY 
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO PHI...HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL ALL FROST 
AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CRITERIA COULD
STILL BE MET FOR PARTS OF ORANGE...PUTNAM...AND PASSAIC 
COUNTIES...THINKING IS THAT IT WOULDN'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO 
CONTINUE THE WARNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. 
SUNSHINE GETS FILTERED THROUGH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING...THEN 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL BE NEARBY TO THE 
WEST AS THE DAY ENDS.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET UP WILL ALLOW FOR 
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. COASTAL SECTIONS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TOP 
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S. BASED ON 925 MB TEMPS...FULL SUN WOULD 
PROBABLY ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AWAY FROM THE SEA 
BREEZE. CONSIDERING LOWERING/THICKENING AFTERNOON CLOUDS...EXPECTING 
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. THE COOLER NAM MOS IS 
CLOSER TO THIS THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS IN TONIGHT. THIS WILL 
HELP STRENGTHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMERGING OFF THE SOUTHERN 
NJ/DEL-MAR-VA REGION LATE AT NIGHT. THIS CENTER WILL BE PART OF 
DOUBLE-BARRELED SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE 
OTHER LOW CENTER MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NY. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT 
AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR 
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL. PREFER THE QPF DISTRIBUTION/AMOUNTS 
CLOSER TO A ECMWF/GFS BLEND VS NAM AS IT APPEARS THAT THE ISENTROPIC 
LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THAT BOTH MODELS DISPLAY MATCH UP 
BETTER RELATIVE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW CENTER TO OUR SOUTH.

BY 12Z ON SATURDAY...THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTH IS PROGGED TO BE AS 
FAR EAST AS THE TWIN FORKS AREA/SE CT...SO LINGERING RAINFALL WILL 
BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE 
AFTERNOON MAINLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A 
SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH. AN ISOLATED TSTM ALSO 
POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE CAPE AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL 
LAPSE RATES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME 
70 DEGREE READINGS FOR THE CITY AND POINTS WEST. NOTICEABLY COOLER 
THOUGH ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD 
ON LONGER DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS AND A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW 
DEVELOPS.

WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH PASSING THROUGH...CHC SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE AREA SAT NIGHT...THEN DRY BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TYPICAL BLOCKY SPRING PATTERN SETTING UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ONE 
UPPER LOW EXITING TO START THE NEW WEEK...UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN 
THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT THEN ANOTHER LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING 
FROM THE CENTRAL US FROM LATE IN THE WEEK.

WITH COLD POOL INSTABILITY SLOW TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...AFTERNOON 
INSTABILITY STRATO-CU AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT 
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE ZONES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW 
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND AFT CLOUDS.

FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND 
ALOFT.

MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS A CUT OFF PAC 
LOW DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL US EARLY IN THE WEEK...PHASES WITH SOME 
ENERGY FROM THIS WEEKEND DEPARTING UPPER LOW...AND THEN SLOWLY 
LIFTS NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK. 

MAIN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UP THROUGH THE 
GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND THEN 
OCCLUDED FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION 
TUES THROUGH MID WEEK. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS WITH THESE 
FEATURES...WITH MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW QUICKLY DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
CAN OVERCOME DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TO DEVELOPS 
OVERRUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON LATEST GEFS/CAN/ECMWF 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTING MORE THEN HALF OF MEMBER VARIANCE ON THE 
SIDE OF STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE ON TUE...HAVE SLOWED 
DOWN PROGRESSION OF RAIN INTO THE REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE 
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A GRADUALLY MOISTENING PROCESS AND 
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE WED/THU NIGHT TIME FRAME AS RIDGING 
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 
SEASONABLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MOVES EAST FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

VFR THROUGH 00Z.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND 10 KT OR LESS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS IN THE 
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. TIMING OF SOUTHEAST WIND FRIDAY 
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES EAST.

MVFR OR LESS CONDITIONS IN RAIN DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.
  
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...MVFR IN RAIN THROUGH SAT MRNG. AREAS
OF MVFR SAT AFTN WITH SHRA POSSIBLE.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE ENTERS THE WATERS. THESE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH 
THE DAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...
BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND 
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS BEGINNING 
SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS. CURRENT THINKING IS 
THAT SCA CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL PREVAIL ON THE OCEAN WATERS 
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
WOULD ALSO BUILD TO RIGHT AROUND 5 FT. WITH THIS BEING IN THE 3RD 
PERIOD AND NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS...WILL HOLD OFF 
ON ISSUING A SCA AT THIS TIME. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT 
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SCA COULD BE 
NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 
AREA. SCA MAY RETURN FOR TUE AS A TIGHTENING NE GRADIENT DEVELOPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO 
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS 
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV






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