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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311443
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACK IN FROM THE OCEAN THIS WEEKEND AND IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CU AND MEAN TROUGHING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW 
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS...GENERALLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK...OVERALL
SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY SHOULD BE LOW IN COVERAGE. A FEW SHOWER
POSSIBLE WELL N&W THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LLJ. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE N&W OF NYC METRO DEVELOPING FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE...ALONG WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND OFF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND HILLS OF NJ/LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...DRIFTING NE. IN-SITU TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED IN LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MODERATE SHEAR/WIND FIELDS
COULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TO THE W/SW AND DRIFTING NE.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND 3 FT S/SE SWELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING. TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE AS MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW...GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUTLYING AREAS AS A RESULT.

DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 OF THE US...DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW 
UP THE EAST COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE COAST AND WEAK RIGHT 
REAR JET LIFT WILL PRESENT A BETTER CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA 
ACTIVITY FOR NYC METRO AND PARTICULARLY POINTS N&W FRI AFT/EVE.

OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS WEAK...SO WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE 
PULSE IN NATURE...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. 15 KT SSE 
STEERING FLOW WILL LEND TO AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE IN MODERATING AIRMASS...LOWER 80S TO 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG 
WITH A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA. AS THE HIGH 
RETROGRADES WEST...IT WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE WEST WITH IT. WITH 
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THE 
FRONT WILL SIT NEAR AND/OR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

A CONTINUOUS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO HELP BRING SUFFICIENT 
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET 
ALSO SITS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMBINATION OF 
THESE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SOME 
OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY 
RAINFALL. 

12Z ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS THE 
AREA WHILE THE GFS/NAM KEEPS IT TO THE SOUTH WHICH KEEPS THE AREA 
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING...DID 
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS AND LEFT CHANCE FOR MUCH 
OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS DUE TO 
THE MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. 

A SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP 
UPPER TROUGH. THIS QUICKLY TRACKS NE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. 
ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVELS QUICKER ON MONDAY WHILE THE GFS 
LEAVES THE SURFACE LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A WET 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AGAIN...WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POP 
FORECAST. 

DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM 
MON-WED AS HEIGHTS RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE SUN 
THAN THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MOST LIKELY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLD-SCT SHRA WITH
POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE N/W OF NYC. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME...EXCEPT FOR KSWF WHERE SHRA HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN A TEMPO
GROUP.

SHRA/TSTMS...IF ANY...DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFT 22Z.

SW WINDS VEER TO THE S AND INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A
SEABREEZE COMPONENT. SPEEDS LIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE SEABREEZE
INFLUENCE WEAKENS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. 

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF START/END OF GUSTY WINDS COULD BE
OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGINIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SCATTERED TSTMS ON FRIDAY WILL PRESENT 
MAINLY A URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD THREAT DUE TO AROUND 15 KT  
MOVEMENT...WITH A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY
TRAINING OF CELLS.

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS/LN/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT/JMC
MARINE...NV/LN
HYDROLOGY...NV/LN





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