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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 050257
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEKEND THEN DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS DRIER AIR A BIT
SLOWER WORKING INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO. HAVE
EVEN INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE THERE IS DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...OTHERWISE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION. E/NE FLOW WILL PUSH DRIER
AIR DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH DECREASING
HUMIDITY. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT...WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS NYC TO
THE 50S IN MOST SUBURBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY. NE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LIKELY
GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE
LOWER 80S INLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR
TO FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND PINE BARRENS DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GRADUALLY INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL 
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK. THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HIGH...WITH 
RIDGING ALOFT AND 1000-500MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 17-19C WHICH 
WOULD TRANSLATE TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CURRENTLY NOT FORECASTING 
A HEAT WAVE (3 OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 90 OR GREATER) 
ACROSS NYC...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING ONE FROM MONDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY IS NOT FORECAST TO GET ABOVE 
90 IN THE METRO AREA...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY 
THAT THIS MAY OCCUR. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN 1 HEAT WAVE AT THE 
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH AND ACCORDING TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY OF CENTRAL 
PARK FROM 1876-2011...ONLY ABOUT 4% OF HEAT WAVES OCCUR IN 
SEPTEMBER. ADDITIONAL LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT THE MEAN HIGH 
TEMPERATURES DURING A 3-DAY HEAT WAVE ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 
90S...WITH THE SECOND DAY BEING THE WARMEST. GIVEN LESS SOLAR 
INSOLATION THAN IN AUGUST...WOULD THINK THAT WE WOULD NOT GET MUCH 
HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 90S...92 OR 93...DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS HAS BEEN AN UNUSUALLY WARM SUMMER.

DESPITE THE WARM CONDITIONS...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY BE 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE AS HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE 
HIGH...BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY SO. 

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 
THIS WILL EXACERBATE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS 
WILL ALSO INCREASE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER. KBDI VALUES ARE 
BETWEEN 400 AND 600 ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN 
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...TRANSLATING TO MIN RH VALUES IN THE 
30S...MAINLY ACROSS NYC...NORTHEAST NJ...AND THE LOWER HUDSON 
VALLEY. MIN RH VALUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE LOWER AND MORE 
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL SEE RH VALUES IN THE 30S AS 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. 

A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY 
EXISTS IN THE MODELS THEREAFTER WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE 
VICINITY AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAINLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PATCHY STRATUS 
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

ON SATURDAY...VFR IS EXPECTED.

EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THEY BACK TO E/NE. NE-ENE FLOW 
CONTINUES SATURDAY MORNING...THEN VEERS TO THE SE WITH SEA BREEZES 
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING. STRONG NE WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF 
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
OUT OF THE NE BUT AT DECREASING SPEEDS ON SATURDAY. SEAS CURRENTLY 4-
5FT PER RECENT BUOY OBS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE 5-6FT RANGE 
ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...PEAKING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK IN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SE OF THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GS/DW
NEAR TERM...GS/DW
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GS
HYDROLOGY...JP/GS



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