Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 192055
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BEING A WEAK COASTAL LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SKY COVER FCST HAS TO BEEN MORE THAN CHALLENGING THE PAST TWO
DAYS AS MOISTURE (NOT TO MENTION TODAY'S THE GRAVITY WAVE) IN THE
INVERSION BASED AROUND 900 HPA.

LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUD COVER IS FILLING BACK IN IN 
THE WAKE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE. HAVE BASED CLOUD COVER FCST ON NAM
LOW LEVEL RH - WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE I
COULD FIND. THUS GOING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. NOTE THE NARRE-
TL SAYS IS SHOULD BE CLEAR AND IS CONSISTENTLY FAILING IN THIS
PATTERN DUE TO UNDERDONE RH IN THE RAP.

TEMPS WERE ADJUST UP ABOVE MOS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS FLOW VEERS MORE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE WITH THE CLOUDS AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPENING OF
THE ISOTHERMAL LAYER. ALSO - WEAK INSOLATION WITH A 25 DEGREE SUN
ANGLE (WINTER SOLSTICE IS SUNDAY 603 PM). 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS FLOW VEERS
MORE NORTHEAST AND UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. NWP HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN OFF TO THE EAST. HAVE DROPPED
POPS IN FAVOR OF A CHC FLURRY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE AGAIN ADJUSTED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FROM MOS BASED ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH A FAST PAC FLOW ACROSS 
THE COUNTRY BRIEFLY BECOMING AMPLIFIED INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF 
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BY TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA IN THE MON-WED 
TIMEFRAME BEFORE DRYING OUT ON THU. THERMO PROFILES ARE WARM ENOUGH 
TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVENTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING FLURRIES AND/OR 
SPRINKLES SUN MORNING IN ASSOC WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF.

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE 
AREA SUN INTO MON...AS A SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM SYSTEM FORMS ALONG 
THE SE COAST AND TAKES A TRACK TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MON 
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP WITH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE 
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THERE IS DECENT WARM 
ADVECTION WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE NE. EVEN SO...BOUNDARY 
LAYER TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT. RAIN 
DEVELOPS LATE MON AFT AND CONTINUES INTO TUE...GENERALLY ON THE 
LIGHT SIDE WITH UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND LOW WILL BE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM AS STRONG PAC JET 
ENERGY CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE 
COUNTRY BY TUE...SENDING A FRONTAL WAVE NE ACROSS THE TN AND OH 
VALLEYS TUE INTO WED...EVENTUALLY WRAPPING UP INTO A DEEP LOW OVER 
THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WARM 
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED EVE. THERE HAS BEEN 
A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO ONE 
AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE OVER A 12 
HOUR PERIOD. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAZARDS.

IN COMPARISON TO RECENT MODEL RUNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS 
WED CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS WEAKER AND 
DISPLACED FARTHER EAST.     

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON SUN TO 10 TO 
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE-WED WITH A DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OUT 
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF. CONDITIONS RETURN BACK TO 
SEASONABLE LEVELS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SAT. VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS MAINLY 030-040FT UNTIL
22Z. LOW CHC OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KISP. NAM FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCED MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.

WINDS 320-350 DEGREES MAGNETIC AT SPEEDS OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 
ARND 20KT UNTIL 22Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND DECREASING TO LESS THAN 
10 KT OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...EXPECT LIGHT N-NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR 
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT  

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR 
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR 
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR 
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR 
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR 
TIMING OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. 
.MON...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E-SE FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...IFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE 
WINDS 10-20 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH 
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUN. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD ON
MONDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCA CONDS THEN LIKELY
FOLLOW MON NIGHT AND TUES AHEAD OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
AS LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS 
EXPECTED.

RAIN ON WED/WED NIGHT MAY AVERAGE 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. 
MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/DW
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...TONGUE/DW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/DW








National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy