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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191332
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND 
THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD...PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FCST WAS UPDATED FOR HOURLY GRIDS...BUT OVERALL THE FCST IS ON
TRACK WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO MAX TEMPS. 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MONTREAL AS OF 13Z SLIDES EAST TO THE
GULF OF MAINE CASING WINDS TO VEER TO SE. 

FEW-SCT STRATO-CU BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TODAY...THAT
COULD GO BRIEFLY BROKEN. OVERALL A SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 

TEMPS 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LONG ISLAND BEACHES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW EARLY...GIVE WAY TO EAST COAST RIDGING AS NORTHERN 
STREAM DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE WELL 
OFFSHORE WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

STRATUS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NYC 
METRO AND POINT W/NW...WITH RETURN FLOW TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDER 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE 
FLOW TEMPS LIKELY DON'T BOTTOM OUT...BUT STILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES 
BELOW SEASONABLE. TEMPS IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST...AND 40S 
INTERIOR.

GUSTY SE WAA FLOW ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODERATION IN 
T/TD. MODELS SIGNALING SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING IN RETURN 
FLOW...BUT WITH RATHER DRY SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF FORCING THIS MAY 
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER A 
LIFTING BUT LINGERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS MODERATING TO NEAR 
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BY LATE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES THEN COME INTO PLAY 
THEREAFTER. ONE OTHER ELEMENT THAT BEARS WATCHING IS HOW QUICKLY THE 
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE DIGGING TROUGH. 
THERE SEEMS TO BE LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS LEADING TO HIGH 
VARIABILITY IN THE SYSTEMS FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK. SINCE THERE IS 
SUCH HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WON'T GO INTO MUCH DETAILS AT 
THIS POINT...BUT POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCREASED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT 
COULD ALSO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE KEEPING ALL PCPN THERE AS 
WELL. HAVE ADDED SCHC POPS FROM AREAS E OF FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT AND 
NASSAU COUNTY N NY FOR NOW AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS AT 
TIMES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

OTHERWISE...THE DIGGING TROUGH SLOWS UP OVER THE EAST COAST DUE TO 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING...BUT STILL IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR THE SFC 
COLD FRONT TO PUSH E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. DECENT SHORTWAVE 
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ALOFT...BUT IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT 
OF RAIN WITH A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE. THE NAM HAS 
BEEN DISCOUNTED AS IT IS THE ONLY SOLN THAT DEVELOPS A WAVE IN SRN 
NEW ENGLAND AND IS A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SE COAST. 
THE SHORTWAVE ALSO PIVOTS INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE EVE TAKING THE 
BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT. HIGHEST CHCS OF PCPN WILL BE WEST OF THE 
HUDSON RIVER. HAVE ALSO ADDED SCHC TSTMS SUN AFTN/NIGHT WITH 
MARGINAL INSTABILITY POSSIBLE. HIGHS SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY 
THE TROF AXIS MON EVE. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING THEN BUILDS FROM THE 
PLAINS RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SE AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. 

THIS WILL RESULT IN NELY WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE E/SE BY LATE
THIS AFT/EVE. SOME EARLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES  
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY-SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EACH MORNING IN 
FOG/CLOUDS...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15Z.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. G20-25 KT MON. 
.MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KT THIS MORNING WILL VEER SE AND
DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS AFTN. 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. 

SE WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUB SCA WINDS AND DIMINISHING
RESIDUAL E SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ALLOW SEAS TO FALL JUST BELOW SCA
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SAT NIGHT INTO MID
WEEK. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SUB-ADVSY CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH AN INCREASING NLY
FLOW. SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL 
PASSAGE SUN NIGHT. DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE 
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/NV
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...24/NV
HYDROLOGY...24/NV









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