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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271804
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN STRATO CU 
THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST 
AND GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE 
SEASONABLE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A SEABREEZE IS 
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST

ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS IS CURRENTLY 
FORECASTED AS LOW...IT MAY BECOME MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF WINDS 
BACK MORE THAN 230 DEGREES AND ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. 
DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE THE 
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT 
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE SFC. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD 
WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW CU. DRY 
WEATHER CONTINUES TEMPS REMAINING NEAR NORMAL. GOOD RADIATIONAL 
COOLING CONDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 50S IN RURAL 
LOCATIONS AND LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE 
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A UNSEASONABLY WARM...DRY PERIOD WILL BE ON TAP AS THE SUB TROP 
RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND... 
EVENTUALLY LINKING UP WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE MID 
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY 
GET UP 590 DM. THIS IS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 
80S AT THE COAST...AND NEAR 90 INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. HUMIDITY 
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 60S AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. 

VFR. SCT-BKN 5-6KFT CU LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE W/WSW AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
GUSTS ARE NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...EXCEPT
FOR KEWR. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BELOW 20 KT. 

SOUTH SEABREEZE NOT EXPECTED FOR COASTAL TERMINALS...BUT SW/SSW
SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK AND KBDR...SINCE CONDITIONS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. LOWER POTENTIAL FOR SEABREEZES AT KISP .

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW PROB OF SW/SSW SEABREEZE BETWEEN 18Z
AND 22Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z SHOULD GENERALLY
AVERAGE BELOW 20 KT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD TURN MORE TO 290 MAGNETIC FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AROUND 21Z OR THEREAFTER. OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH
23Z SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW 20 KT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH 23Z SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW 20 KT.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS THROUGH 22Z SHOULD
GENERALLY AVERAGE BELOW 20 KT. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SW/SSW SEABREEZE BETWEEN 18Z AND 
23Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW PROB OF ISOLATED AFT/EVE
SHRA/TSRA SUN THROUGH TUE FOR WESTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...24/MALOIT
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW



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