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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311926
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS TO 
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR'EASTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS REMAINS WELL 
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHORTWAVE/VORT 
DIVES SEWD AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE.

WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT...12Z MODEL SUITE...INCLUDING HRRR SEEM
TO FOCUS RAIN DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NW
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR THE COAST AND TOWARD
NEW JERSEY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO 
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CLOSED DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC 
COAST THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE INITIAL LOW MOVES 
JUST E OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AS THE NEXT LOW FOLLOWS ABOUT 12 
HOURS LATER.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE 
WEST AND THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT 
IN WINDY CONDITIONS.

NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS 
TIME...FEEL WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET DURING THE 
DAY...ALTHOUGH EASTERN LOCATIONS COULD COME CLOSE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR 40 KT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT...BUT 
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH...AND IT IS A THIRD PERIOD EVENT. WILL HOLD 
OFF ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

CSTL LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF RAIN...WITH PROBABILITIES 
TAPERING DOWNWARD AS YOU HEAD INLAND. WITH CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF
RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN CHILLY. EXPECT TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50.

COLD AIR ADVECTION SAT NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S 
MANY LOCATIONS...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.

RAIN TAPERS OFF. A FEW SNOW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY LEFTOVER 
SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. IN FACT...A FEW SREF MEMBERS 
OUTPUT MEASURABLE SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR PRECIP TO
END BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. WINDY FOR SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DEPARTS 
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOKING AT 09Z SREF AND VARIOUS 12Z 
MODEL SOUNDINGS...APPEARS WE'RE SHORT OF 40 KT WIND GUST CRITERIA 
FOR ADVISORY...BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE 27 KT SUSTAIN CRITERIA IN 
PLACES...ESPECIALLY AROUND NYC.   

CLOUDS SUNDAY MORNING COULD GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY...BUT HAVE 
NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FCST AS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING 
SIGNIFICANCE. DO NOTE THAT THERE ARE 3 MEMBERS IN THE 09Z SREF THAT 
DO GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOW - SO IT'S SOMETHING TO MONITOR. MAX 
TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z MOS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND CONSISTENT 
WITH THE 00Z ENSEMBLE EC/GEFS MOS. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WITH SLOW 
MODERATION OF TEMPS.  

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON 
THURSDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS IN. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS EVENT 
AS TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL PCPN APPEARS LIGHT. 
12Z GEFS SUPPORTS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS PATTERN IS BECOMING 
NON-LINEAR. NOTE THAT MORE GEFS MEMBERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE 
FASTER/PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF...THUS HAVE KEPT FRIDAY DRY WITH 
COOLER/NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY AND TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 5000 FT...LOWERING
TO 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS FROM EAST TO WEST THIS
EVENING...AND CONDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MVFR CONDS. CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP TO IFR
SOMETIME FROM 12Z-18Z SATURDAY IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.

NE WINDS 8-12 KT THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH 20-25
KT GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN WINDS INCREASE FURTHER
TO 20-25 KT WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS AFTER 15Z SATURDAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY.

EXCEPTION WILL BE KSWF...WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND CONDS
OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO MVFR. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 8-12 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LATE SATURDAY.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 00-02Z SATURDAY IN 
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN 
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN 
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE FROM 01-03Z SATURDAY IN 
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 07Z SATURDAY.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 01Z SATURDAY IN
-RA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR CONDS IN RA. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH 
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT...BACKING TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KT 
WITH 25-35 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT.
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. 
.WEDNESDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY...CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR IN -RA AT 
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT 
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS. THE WATERS REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ROUGH SEAS PER WAVEWATCH SEEM QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED
WINDS.

GALES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY 
MORNING...ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA 
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS 
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL 
LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS 
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FLOW 
BACKS TO WSW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES SUCH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. THEN MORE OF A STEADY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN TAPERS 
OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

STILL EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE  FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER ORANGE COUNTY AND INTERIOR LOCALES
TO A HALF AN INCH...OR POSSIBLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OVER SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 
OF NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A STRONG NE FLOW...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH COASTAL 
FLOODING BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR (SANDY HOOK VICINITY)...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS 
OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LI SOUND WOULD BE THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE 
AREAS. PECONIC BAY MAY COME CLOSE IN SPOTS AS WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...TONGUE/PW
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW







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