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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 271144
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
644 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY. 
THE HIGH MOVES EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH ON 
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL 
BUILD FROM THE NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES WELL TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH UPSTREAM 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAIN TROUGH 
PREDOMINATES AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

THIS UPPER TROUGH...IN TANDEM WITH SFC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
YIELD PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
LOW...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY. LATEST RADAR ALSO INDICATES SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 30S TODAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND WHICH SEEMS TO
AGREE WITH FORECAST PROFILES AND EXPECTED 2 METER TEMPS TODAY.

THESE EXPECTED TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND 
FRIDAY...REPLACED BY A GENERAL FLAT NW TO SE FLOW. SFC TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW ACROSS NEW 
ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH IN TIME. ANY LINGERING LIGHT 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TONIGHT WILL END AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS NORTH. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FRIDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT READINGS IN THE 20S TONIGHT...AND MID TO UPPER 
30S FRIDAY PER MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO PACIFIC NW TROUGH THAT
QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PASSING TO THE NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
MOVES OUT OF THE PAC NW...ALSO TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD 
MOVES EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A WARM FRONT THEN LIFTS ACROSS 
THE AREA SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED...SUBTLE TIMING AND POSITIONAL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS 
FORECAST AS THE FRONT SETTLES AND STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN 
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE 
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE TERMINALS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR...OCCASIONALLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE FIRST ROUND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

THE WIND WILL VARY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 310 TRUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SAT NIGHT...VFR.
.SUN-MON...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING AWAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WAS
QUICKLY WEAKENING. AS A RESULT WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...INTO PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS...AND THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z. THEREAFTER...THE WIND AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. FRIDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE WATERS AND A FEW GUSTS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ONCE AGAIN.

OTHERWISE SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WERE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT 
LEVELS...AND SUBSIDING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.

OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST COULD AGAIN REACH MARGINAL SCA LEVELS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A MODERATE SW FLOW. SCA LEVEL OCEAN
SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...PW









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