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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 241927
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
327 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DEPART TONIGHT. A 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE 
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. NW WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH...AND TO 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. 
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...LOWS 
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE 
INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 
40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY 
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT. 

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE 
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF 
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY. 
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE 
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY 
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP 
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON 
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING 
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS 
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT 
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A 
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM 
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC 
POPS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN 
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY 
NIGHT. 

VFR EXPECTED REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AS BROKEN CLOUD DECK DISSIPATES 
AFTER SUNSET. VFR IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

NW FLOW/GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND 
REMAINING RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS EVENING. WIND GRADUALLY 
BECOMING WESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.  GUSTY NW WINDS TO 
30KT LIKELY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IN CIGS THROUGH EARLY 
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30 KT ON 
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE 
DEPARTING LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE...ALLOWING FOR TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS AND WINDS INCREASING 
TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL PUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR ALL WATERS 
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AT MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. 

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS 
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE 
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL 
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY 
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE 
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD 
FRONT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EDT 
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC






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