000
FXUS61 KOKX 231812
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AND REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. IT
THEN TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HRRR/RAP/NAM/SREF IDEA OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BEING CONFINED TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA. HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS NW AND CHC POPS SE AS A RESULT.

SEVERE THREAT REMAINS OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA...WITH 1000-2000
J/KG CURRENTLY OVER LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ...ALONG WITH 30 KT
OF BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OF 15-30. SO CAN
EXPECT ORGANIZED MULTI- CELLULAR CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL. MAIN THREAT IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE IS GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.

GIVEN APPROACHING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE AND STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SE 1/2 OF CWA.

PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TRAINING CELLS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT 
PROVIDING LIFT. FARTHER EAST...LIFT COMES COURTESY OF ADDITIONAL MID 
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. ON A LARGER 
SCALE...LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK ALOFT 
SHIFTS IN LATE AT NIGHT. SO SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALIZED 
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD LINGER AT LEAST INTO 
THE EVENING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST 
BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS RIGHT 
ALONG THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON AS 
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING COLD 
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION WITH 
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE 
COUNTRY...TAKING A CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON 
FRI NE TO OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO 
CONTINUE TO TREND FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION 
BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEING EXHIBITED 
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS RESULTS IN A BREEZY...COOL AND WET 
WEEKEND. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BANDING ON 
SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY TAPERING TO SHOWER ACTIVITY SAT NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT INSTABILITY 
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MON. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH 
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

TEMPS THIS WEEKEND COULD BE A GOOD 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW 
SEASONABLE...WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH 
COLD POOL ALOFT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY NOT 
BE ANY BETTER BASED ON TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO 
SEASONABLE. A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS IS THEN 
FORECAST MON-WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER DAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TODAY...MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.

VFR CIGS AND VIS AT KLGA AND KJFK WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY
IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KJFK. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL JERSEY COAST AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL IMPACT KJFK AND KLGA AROUND 18Z.

FOR THE CITY TERMINALS...SHOWERS WILL POP UP AT ANY TIME...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS...SO WENT PREVAILING SHRA AND TEMPO
-TSRA. MORE STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND THEREFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...AFTER 22Z.

CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR OR LESS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL
INTRODUCE THUNDER TO THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC IN A PROB30 GROUP
AFTER 00Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THERE. 

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND STRATUS
OFF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND COULD MOVE IN...BRINGING VSBY
AND CIGS TO IFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS EXPECTED TODAY FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS/TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
 
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHRA...ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR IN
SHOWERS...FOG AND STRATUS.
.SATURDAY...SHRA LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER. N WINDS 25-30G35KT.
.SUNDAY...MOST LIKELY VFR WITH NW WINDS 20-25KT. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 
UP TO 40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEB-CAMS SHOW VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NY HARBOR
GOING DOWN TO UNDER A MILE AT TIMES...SO HAVE ISSUED A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE WATERS S AND W OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH 4
PM FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE...SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LINGERING
SWELL LIKELY KEEPS SEAS UP OVER 5 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL DURING
PARTS OF THIS PERIOD ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. NON-OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS PEAK AT AROUND 20 KT...BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL 
FOR GALE CONDITIONS SAT INTO SUN...AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE
WATERS ON FRI AND LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS AND
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND INCH BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY 
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT AT 
LEAST SOME MINOR FLOODING IS PROBABLE. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF 
THE QUESTION...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS THE DAY 
WEARS ON. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REGARDING TIMING/COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST 
HALF OF FRI WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF 
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS MAY EXACERBATE ANY
ONGOING FLOODING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV