Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Upton, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KOKX 260604
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...THEN MOVES
EAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA MID
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASED POP TO SLIGHT CHANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. 

OTHERWISE...A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ON TAP AS A
STRONG UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST. IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH GUSTY NW FLOW
DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SCT-BKN CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN STRATA CU
DEVELOPING IN THE NW ZONES IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVE TOWARD MORNING. ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO FORECAST
DATABASE PER HRRR/ARW AND 18Z NAM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND THEN
AGAIN WITH SHORTWAVE. DRY AIR THOUGH THE LIMITING FACTOR.

TEMPS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
INLAND...TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. THIS REMAINS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUN WILL RESULT IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH MORE SUN NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND UPPER 50S. STAYED
JUST A BIT BELOW MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE...BUT HIGHER THAN 2M MODEL
TEMPS. 

IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. 

SKIES CLEAR SUN NIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. THIS WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONABLE VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARISE 
LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE BUILDS MONDAY AND PASSES EAST BY 
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
COUNTRY...PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THEN CROSSES THE 
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE FLOW APPEARS TO FLATTEN AS 
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD  
CENTRAL CANADA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE 
OF THE TROUGH...LIKELY CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK 
OR INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW 
PRESSURE CUTTING OFF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY 
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER ECMWF HOLDS THIS TROUGH/CLOSED LOW FURTHER 
WEST AS GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE PIVOTING THE CLOSED LOW EASTWARD. AS 
SUCH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH/LOW DIFFERS QUITE A BIT BY SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 
AREA BY TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION 
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AS SFC LOW LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. THE 
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE 
UPSTREAM APPROACHES. THIS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
FRIDAY. LOOKING AT ECMWF AND GFS...DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THE GFS 
DEEPENS THIS PARENT LOW MUCH MORE THAN ECMWF. ECMWF DEVELOPS A 
DEEPER WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW...DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ALREADY 
MENTIONED. 

IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH 
MINIMAL POPS WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A 
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER JUST EAST OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO 
CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY IS DRY ONCE AGAIN. 
THEN...UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY. THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY 
NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. 

MILD READINGS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.
THEN TEMPS COOL SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH 
READINGS BELOW NORMAL LIKELY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT
INTO THE MORNING AND THEN AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION VEERS TO WNW-NW OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS IN THAT DIRECTION
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SOME UNCERTAINTY OF 10-30 DEGREES WITH WIND DIRECTION.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LATE SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. GUSTS SUBSIDE LATE SUN NIGHT.
.WED...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHRA.
.THU...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W/SW WINDS RAMP UP AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES TO MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FURTHER WITH WIND
GUSTS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND AROUND 30
KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES 
JUST TO THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SW/S AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT TUESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE WINDS SHIFT AS THE 
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISH AS WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY.

ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY. EXPECT OCEAN SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA 
THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS BUILD ONCE AGAIN 
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SEAS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE WINDS 
SHIFT AND DIMINISH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$




National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy