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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 222036
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES RIDING THIS FLOW...EACH BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. AS OF 19Z...WATCHING A WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NY/EASTERN PA...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERING
SCT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE
NEARER THE COAST WHERE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRODUCED A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE ALL DAY BKN-OVC SKY COVER. AS
SUCH...THINKING ANY PCPN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
RESTRICTED WEST/NORTH OF NYC METRO UNDER THE BETTER FORCING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FORCING WEAK AND LITTLE LIFT AT THE
SFC...CAPPED POPS AT LOW END CHC...THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. 

TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH BEGINS PIVOTING OUT OF THE REGION AS THE STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...THE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION...KEEPING THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN
INTRODUCED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTN WITH THE PASSING OF THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE PASSAGE OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
THE BEST CHC...IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...WILL BE WEST OF NYC METRO.
BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF OCCURRING AND OF ANY
COVERAGE...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE MOST
THE AREA REMAINS DRY. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY SAT NIGHT...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
CONTINUAL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SKIES FINALLY START
TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS TO
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...DROPPING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA 
ON THURSDAY.

EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND 
IMPROVING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE 
TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MAINLY VFR TO LOCALIZED MVFR 
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...CIGS COULD POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 1K-1.5KFT. 
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO NEAR KSWF AND KLGA/KJFK. GENERALLY FLOW 
AROUND 070 TO 110 DEGREES AROUND 10-13 KT. KLGA MORE NE FLOW UNTIL 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2K-3KFT 
COULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2K-3KFT 
COULD CONTINUE ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. NE FLOW COULD LAST 1 HOUR LATER 
THAN INDICATED IN TAF BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE E FLOW.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR 
BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR 
BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR 
BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR 
BETWEEN 2K-3KFT BEFORE 02Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SAT THROUGH WED...
.SAT...BECOMING VFR WITH ENE FLOW.
.SUN-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW MAY BUILD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 3-4 FT FOR
THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. GUSTS AT MOST WILL REACH 20
KTS ON THE OCEAN.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS EXPECTED THEN TO LAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE...WHICH
COULD RESULT UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...FIG/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/SEARS







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