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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 281656
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1156 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z KALY AND KOKX SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS 12Z BUFKIT DATA SUGGEST
MIXING TO AROUND 950 HPA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS LOWERED
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. 

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 850-700 HPA
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND AND MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CITY AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL 
QUICKLY INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM WEST
TO EAST. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING AND WRAPPING UP BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS LI AND NY METRO AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKING FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES AND A LIGHT ICE
ACCRETION TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY MORNING WITH A
GUSTY NW FLOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME AROUND WARMER
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HI PRES OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. 
DIMINISHING NNW FLOW SHOULD BACK WNW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SUNDAY...VFR TO START...THEN SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SNOW...CHANGING TO
A WINTRY MIX AT THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS LATE.
TOTAL MOST LIKELY TOTAL RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES AT
KSWF...2-3 INCHES AT KHPN/KBDR/KGON... AND 1-2 INCHES AT THE NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS.

.MON-MON NIGHT...BECOMING VFR EARLY. NW WINDS G15-25KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.TUE...MAINLY VFR.

.TUE NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW...CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WED...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN. LLWS POSSIBLE. 

.WED NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS TIL
MON...WHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON
TUE...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN TUE NIGHT AND WED TO SCA LEVELS AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL COMPLEX APPROACHES. THE FRONT MAY STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WATERS THU...KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS LOCKED IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT LATE 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE
IMPACT ON THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON LOCAL AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FIG
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/FIG
SHORT TERM...FIG
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MALOIT/FIG
HYDROLOGY...FIG






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