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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250541
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND PASSING OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND
COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HAZARDS AT THIS POINT.
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AROUND
DAYBREAK...TEMPS COULD FALL PRETTY QUICKLY ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.
STILL...MIGHT HAVE TO DROP HEADLINES FOR MANY SPOTS WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE SHOULD WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT MORE
NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...
MOISTENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW. AS SUCH...
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY
EVENING...LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...BECOMING
STEADIER OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGHING LINGERING ON SAT AND AN UPPER LOW
WITH VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH...KEPT CHANCE
POP THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT NIGHT. 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL LATE DAY SAT INTO SAT EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH 
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MOVES EAST FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

VFR THROUGH 00Z.

NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND 10 KT OR LESS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS IN THE 
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. TIMING OF SOUTHEAST WIND FRIDAY 
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES EAST.

MVFR OR LESS CONDITIONS IN RAIN DEVELOP AFTER 00Z.
  
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT...MVFR IN RAIN THROUGH SAT MRNG. AREAS
OF MVFR SAT AFTN WITH SHRA POSSIBLE.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. THESE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
PASSING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO SCA CONDS
BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT. THE ERN-MOST SOUND AND OCEAN WATERS COULD
SEE A BRIEF PD OF SE GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...BUT
NOT OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH. 

SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AFTER THE LOW PASSES EAST.
THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
TUE-WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO 
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ078-080.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MMD/FIG/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...JC/MMD/GOODMAN/PW
SHORT TERM...MMD/GOODMAN
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...FIG/GOODMAN/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...MMD/FIG






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