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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 282023
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
423 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BUILDS NEARLY OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. ANY CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND CAN EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES FOR TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS...THIS
WILL SET UP EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CT...AND FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE SFC
DEWPOINT.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL
DROP TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
UP AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE 50S DURING THE DAY TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS GLOBAL MODELS 
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEXT WEEK. 
SUBTLE DETAILS OBVIOUSLY HARD TO PIN POINT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN 
WOULD SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...BUILDING 
HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

INITIAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH 
WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. LATEST GFS THEN 
INDICATES BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER 
THE RIDGE THURSDAY FLATTENS THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT...BUT LOOKS TO
BUILD RIGHT BACK FRIDAY. ECMWF INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET
CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE LOCAL WEATHER.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CANADIAN/NH...MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE 
RIDGE LIKELY SUPPRESSES TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH 
NEXT WEEK...BUT PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION.

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK 
HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. 
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS 
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR 
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS 
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 

SEA BREEZE THROUGH CT TERMINALS AND KJFK. OTHERWISE A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO A LIGHT NW- NE FLOW SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SEABREEZES AT
ALL BUT KSWF/KHPN/KEWR/KTEB AND POSSIBLY KISP. DOUBTS INCREASING
ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF SEABREEZE AT KLGA AND KISP...SO GENERALLY
DELAYED ANOTHER HOUR AT KLGA AND REMOVED FROM KISP. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN SO UNTIL
SEABREEZES DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. 

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF
SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. 

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF
SEABREEZE EARLY THIS EVENING.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING IN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTION COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT....MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR. AFTERNOON SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5
KT OR LESS TONIGHT...AND THEN SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AND
THE MOUTH OF NY HARBOR...ENHANCED LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES COULD
RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WHILE SEAS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS 
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT MAINLY SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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