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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251150 CCA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY MORNING...WHERE A
SECONDARY COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS STORM WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
AND BECOME A POWERFUL NOR'EASTER AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL PASS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CATSKILLS AND NE PA WILL PUSH THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES OUT ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON INITIAL CONDITIONS.
FORECAST ON TRACK.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES TO THE EAST COAST...WHICH WILL UNDERGO MAJOR
AMPLIFICATION AS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MS VALLEY
CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE EAST COAST TROF BY MONDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...A SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA
TODAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST
INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LAYING DOWN THE FOUNDATION FOR COLD
AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

WEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW THIS AFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN LATE IN THE DAY.

HIGHS WILL BE 35 TO 40...WARMEST NEAR THE COAST. STAYED CLOSE TO
MET/MAV MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
LOWERING AND THICKENING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES TO WORK INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MON. 

THE INGREDIENTS ARE THEN COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC
NOR'EASTER AS A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY MON.
THIS LOW UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC MON NIGHT...LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. MSLP DROPS NEARLY 30 MB IN 24H FROM MON TO TUE
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MDT-HVY
SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MEMBERS SUPPORTS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES LIQUID
EQUIVALENT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.
THAT BEING THE CASE...SNOW BANDING WILL LIKELY EXTEND AS FAR WEST
AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN
HOUR AT TIMES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FOOT WITH AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 2 FT POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT. ONCE AGAIN
THOUGH...THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MOST INTENSE BANDING IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE.

THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
THE LOW TRACK AND ITS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PCPN HAS BEEN
DISCOUNTED. 

IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL CREATE NEAR OR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR LI AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CT...WITH A WINTER STORM
WATCH ELSEWHERE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUST OF 35 TO 50
MPH...HIGHEST TO THE EAST.

LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS MON MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY PICKS UP IN THE
LATE AFT. MDT-HVY SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF MON NIGHT INTO TUE
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TUE EVENING. 

TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEHIND THE STORM...DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A
WEAKER LOW AFFECTS US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAPPED POPS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH PRECIPITATION MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT
MIXED PRECIPITATION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

** HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND EVENT PROBABLE LATE MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEE OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS **

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM 
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KSWF 
NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO AROUND 4000 FT 
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WNW-NW AROUND 10-15KT...WITH G15-20KT BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS 
WILL ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS VEER TO THE NNE BY MID-LATE 
EVENING AROUND 10 KT...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MONDAY MORNING...MVFR POSSIBLE IN -SN. NE WINDS G20-25KT PROBABLE.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN 
SNOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AND 
NE-N WINDS G35-50 KT.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G25-35KT POSSIBLE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST WATERS THROUGH SUN AFT. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SCA THIS EVENING. 

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD 
OF A STRONG STORM THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. 
THE STORM WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY...AND THEN 
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 

HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR NY HARBOR...SOUTH SHORE BAYS....AND 
WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND A STORM WATCH FOR ALL OCEAN 
WATERS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDNERS BAYS. 
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM PASSES. USED WAVEWATCH AS A STARTING 
POINT FOR WAVES...BUT INCREASED BY SEVERAL FEET IN COORDINATION WITH 
SURROUNDING OFFICES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW GUSTS OVER EASTER 
OCEAN WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND TO APPROACH 60 KT. 

WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH WEDS AND THURS AS THE STORM MOVES NE 
AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM MONDAY INTO TUE WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. PRECIPITATION TYPE HOWEVER
DOES APPEAR TO BE MOSTLY ALL SNOW...REDUCING ADVERSE HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS DURING THE STORM. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
AMOUNTS.

ICE ON THE WALLKILL AND YANTIC RIVERS IS CAUSING MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
IN RIVER LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A POTENTIAL INTENSE COASTAL STORM COULD BRING MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING 
     FOR CTZ006>008-010>012.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
     EVENING FOR CTZ005-009.
NY...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING 
     FOR NYZ078>081-177-179.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
     EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ335-338-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
     FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










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