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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 221447
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WELL. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN
LIFTS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND IT MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST AS IT
STRENGTHENS...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS NEAR THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. OVERALL THOUGH...THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXITS LEAVING ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE ALOFT.
WITH NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW...IT SHOULD
BE DRY. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SIM REFL INDICATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY NW ZONES...BUT DO NOT FEEL MUCH
WILL REACH THE GROUND.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON READINGS WILL STILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT...A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT LOWS ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA...AS WELL AS THE W 2/3-3/4 OF ORANGE COUNTY SHOULD BE AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING. SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
IN THESE AREAS...IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IS FAR TO LOW - LESS THAN
40 PERCENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY - OR EVEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLAZING OF ICE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY ON E ACROSS INTERIOR S CT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SUNDAY...KEEPING THINGS
DRY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING
SE SFC-SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT - THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL INCREASES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN
FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...AND NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LIKELY WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
AND 850 WARM FRONTS FINISH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS COMING TO AN END MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE AFD
FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY IMPACTS.

MONDAY WILL END UP BEING VERY MILD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 950-925 HPA PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET
GUIDANCE. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE
WAS USED WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY HOW A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN FROM N CENTRAL CANADA INTERACTS WITH THIS
TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 

THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE...AND HENCE ULTIMATELY DEEPER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE CMC IS THE SLOWEST WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY PHASING WITH THE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH...SO ITS LOW IS WEAKER AND FAR ENOUGH OUT TO SEA
THAT THERE WOULD BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. THE GFS HAS ABOUT THE
SAME STRENGTH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AS THE CMC...BUT
IS FASTER AND HENCE HAS ENOUGH PHASING WITH THE FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH TO HAVE ITS LOW BE A BIT STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN THE CMC. THE 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS. SO BASED ON THIS...FOR
NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS...HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS...BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST...BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. ADJUSTED
POPS TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 6 HOURLY
PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCHES OF QPF FROM TUESDAY- THURSDAY...THOUGH
DID GENERALLY CAP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING DRY COLD
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SE TO NW LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE...FOR NOW OFF AND ON IN
NATURE...INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS N/W OF NYC...IF IT GETS THAT
FAR INLAND...AND AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF S CT...WITH
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO OUR
SE AND E WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE
IN TO TURN ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO A LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TRANSITION BACK OVER TO RAIN THEN RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AS
THE STORM PULLS AWAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OUT TO SEE THAT THE AREA RECEIVES NO PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
OCCURS...THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIPITATION...AND LIKELY MORE
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY EXACT IMPACT/EXTENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED.

MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT OVER WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE
STORM...BUT IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN ITS WAKE EITHER DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH
BEHIND THE LOW...OR ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY-FRIDAY USED A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN GFS 2-METER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ECMWF AND GFS
2-METER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BETTER REFLECT IMPACT OF
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TODAY.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN LATE
AFTN/EVE. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE 00Z TO 03Z SUN AT KSWF. LOW
PROB FOR POCKETS OF LGT FZRA AT KSWF OVERNIGHT...TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

SW WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH G20KT AFTER 
14-15Z. GUSTS END BY 00Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR. 
.SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR. POSSIBLY SUB-IFR. RA AND FG
WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
.WED...MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY 
IMPACT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING 
THIS AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUND AND NY HARBOR...BUT A GUST OR TWO UP 
TO 25 KT FOR THESE ZONES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRADIENT 
RELAXES TOWARDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PIVOTS THROUGH 
THE WATERS. WILL CARRY THE SCA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN 
SOUND AND LI BAYS...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN 
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. EAST OF THIS...SEAS WILL BE SLOWER 
TO SUBSIDE ON A SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH FOR SEAS 
HERE CONSIDERING THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE SWELL TO FACTOR IN. 
HAVE THEREFORE ENDED SCA HERE AT NOON ON SUNDAY.

WINDS PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A 60KT+ LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING 
THROUGH LATE AT NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGS THE THREAT OF 
GALES. BETTER OVERALL CHANCES WOULD BE ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT 
THIS COULD EXPAND TO THE OTHER ZONES. SCA CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A RELATIVELY 
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AS A
COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NYC METRO
AREA...AND LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF SE CT AND
THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. WHILE FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED...THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE THIS...IF ANY DO...COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY 24 NOVEMBER...

LOCATION........RECORD/YEAR.....FORECAST HIGH

NEWARK..............75/1979...........70
BRIDGEPORT..........63/1979...........64
CENTRAL PARK........73/1979...........68
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...68/1999...........69
JFK AIRPORT.........63/2001*..........66
ISLIP...............63/2001...........66 

* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-340-
     345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...JC/JMC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
CLIMATE...










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