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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 291141
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN SLIDES
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEPART OUT TO SEA...HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AS THE SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA HIGH AND NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PHASE
ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR SAT INDICATE
A LOT OF CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
FORECASTED SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
HOW TRANSPARENT THESE CLOUDS ARE ATTM. DO EXPECT SOME THINNING AS
THEY APPROACH THE AREA WITH VERY DRY UPPER LEVELS PER 00Z KOKX
SOUNDING.

NLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE WITH SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING AROUND H85...WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C AT THIS LEVEL WHICH
WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SAT WITH H5
HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DAM. SFC HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH SAT. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND
13C SAT AFTN WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

OUTLYING LOCATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE FLOW TONIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY HOWEVER SINCE THE
OPAQUENESS OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR AS WELL AS WEAK WAA OCCURRING. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
STILL FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THU NIGHT.

ONE OTHER THING THAT IS TROUBLING IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING EARLY SAT MORNING. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW...FEEL THAT THEY ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DO NOT FORESEE
BKN LOW CLOUDS AROUND 12Z. DO HOWEVER FEEL THAT FEW-SCT COULD BE
AROUND WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM...MUGGY PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC 
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP THE 
TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST S/SW FLOW WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL 
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A TROF OR 
WEAK WARM FRONT THAT APPROACHES SUN AND PASSES TROUGH SUN NIGHT INTO 
MON. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES 
RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DECENT WESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT DOES NOT SUPPORT 
TRAINING OF CELLS...THUS ANY FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED.  

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE BEFORE A  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TUE 
AFT/EVE. AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO FEATURE MDT-HIGH 
CAPE...BUT WEAK SHEAR. 

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 80S...AND LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWS 
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 
AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT NW BECOMES NE BY MID MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SE THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH SEA BREEZES. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT...EXCEPT AT 
KJFK WHERE WINDS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION
WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 
HOURS FROM FORECAST. 

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 
HOURS FROM FORECAST.  

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 
HOURS FROM FORECAST.  

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES 
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 
HOURS FROM FORECAST.   

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 
HOURS FROM FORECAST.   

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1-2 
HOURS FROM FORECAST.   

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH SWELLS ALSO
DECREASING...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA HZ. SUB-ADVSY CONDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SAT WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OFFSHORE.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF S/SW WINDS WILL BE FEATURED FROM SAT NIGHT 
INTO TUE AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO REACH SCA CRITERIA 
SUN AFT THOUGH MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL THROUGH SAT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/DW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW








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