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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 180211
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1011 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH 
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE NEW WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...TEMPS ARE
FALLING OFF PRETTY QUICKLY. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN/AROUND
NYC...AND GENERALLY IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT BEGIN TO RISE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD TOWARD THE REGION.
LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE. KEPT POPS
NEAR ZERO WITH THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND USED GFS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AND AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN THE
NAM AND GFS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO HIGH SO USED
THE COOLER ECS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFFSHORE UNDER A NEAR 
ZONAL FLOW. GENERALLY EXPECTING THE DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS SET UP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO 
THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAX RIDING THE FLOW. 12Z 
RUNS OF NAM/GFS SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT PCPN FORMATION SAT AFTN THOUGH 
FAILING TO REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER AT THE SFC OR ALOFT 
COMBINING WITH A STILL MOISTENING ATMO. SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY POPS 
HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT.  

CHANGING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE TREKKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FIRST THING OF NOTE FOR 
SUNDAY TO BE ADDRESSED IS THE FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF 
THE SOUTHEAST US WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS NORTH AHEAD 
OF THE TROUGH. 12Z CMC BIT QUICKER WITH THE PROGRESSION...ALLOWING 
FOR THE PHASING OF THE DETACHED ENERGY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH 
DEVELOPING IN A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. 
FOR NOW...SIDED WITH A SOLUTION LEANING MORE TO THE ECMWF AND 
GFS...WHICH HAS THE LOW RIDING THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON 
SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE 
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUES MORNING. 
CONCERNING POPS...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC BY SUN AFTN FOR EXTREME 
NORTHWEST AREAS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN SPREADING TO THE 
EAST SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 
06Z TUES. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE USHERED IN WITH THE SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO RESULT IN AT LEAST LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SOME 
TIME SUN NIGHT-MON. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING SO WILL 
MAINTAIN LOWER END CHC POPS. 

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN COME BACK INTO DECENT AGREEMENT BY 12Z 
TUES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING 
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. 

PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WAA ALONG THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY SAT. CAA 
WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WILL SEE TEMPS DROPPING 
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT W/NW LATE. N/NW WINDS THU
MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEABREEZE
POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THU EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING TO LEFT OF
310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE DAY SEABREEZE POSSIBLE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NW WINDS 7-10 KT LIKELY BACKING AND
WAVERING AROUND 310 MAG IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE
FLOW WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
DURING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOW A SOUTHEAST SWELL MAY ALLOW
FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRIDAY.

GENERALLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. SEAS 
WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUN-MON WITH THE 
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN AT 3-4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN HYDROLOGIC ISSUES IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...MPS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET










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