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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 282045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY FROM
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NORTH OF NEW YORK CITY/LONG ISLAND THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM ALBANY NY
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE PA AS OF 3 PM WILL NEED
WATCHING...BUT DUE TO LIMITED CAPE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY
STATE AS IT APPROACHES NORTHERN NJ TOWARDS 6 PM. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED.

AFTER 6 PM THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS IT
APPROACHES NYC AND LONG ISLAND TOWARDS 7-8 PM.

THERE REMAINS IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN NYC.
WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUN GIVES WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS THAT "PANCAKE" UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE TO BKN AT TIMES.

CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT. 

MAX/MINS ARE A BLEND OF MOS WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL BE THE 
DOMINATING FEATURE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING 
THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN 
WED-FRI WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WELL SHORE BACKS 
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY AND QUIET WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. 12Z NAM AND 
GFS BOTH HINTING AT ISO SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH/WEST OF 
NYC METRO...CORRESPONDING WITH THE REGION UNDER A PASSING SHORTWAVE. 
HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON WHETHER 
ANYTHING WILL FORM SO WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LOW END SLIGHT CHC 
FOR PCPN FOR THE AFTN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMO 
BEING INJECTED IN WITH THE SWLY FLOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MAJORITY OF 
THE AREA WILL ENJOY DRY WX. SIMILAR STORY ON THURS WITH ANOTHER 
PASSING SHORTWAVE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMO...CLOSER TO 
NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AGAIN JUST HAVE MENTION FOR 
SLIGHT CHC TSTM WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC METRO. 

POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE 
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE LINGERING STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL 
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. ALOFT...THE 
DOMINATING CLOSED LOW/ASSOCIATED DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO EDGE OFF TO 
THE NORTH AND EAST. THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED THOUGH UNDER A 
BROAD TROUGH...WITH MULTIPLE DECENT SHORTWAVES RIDING THE 
FLOW...EACH BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. 
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT THE PASSING AND INCLUDED POPS TO 
CORRESPOND WHERE THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 
TIMING...FRI NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SAT AFTN/EVENING. MODELS DIVERGE 
HOWEVER ON THE SOLUTION SUN-MON WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE MORE 
PROGRESSION IN WEAKENING THE TROUGH INTO ALMOST A ZONAL FLOW WHILE 
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE TROUGH INTO THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A BLEND OF 
THE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MENTION OF 
SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN AFTN-MON EVENING. THE TREND SUGGESTS ANY PCPN 
SUN MIGHT BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH MORE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
MONDAY WITH BOTH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND THE FRONT STALLING JUST 
EAST OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW...THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE 
STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL. 

UNDER THE PERSISTING TROUGH...TEMPS WILL HOVER A FEW DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISING HEIGHTS BY THE END OF THE 
WEEKEND WILL AID IN PUSHING TEMPS TO RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING. 

WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF NYC
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH KSWF HAVING THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE. 

SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 25-28 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TO
10-15 KT WITH 15-23 KT GUSTS THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING W-NW AND
DIMINISHING FURTHER TO 8-12 KT.

GENERAL WEST FLOW AT 10 KT OR LESS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN 
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY NOT BE AS
STRONG AS FORECASTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM KBDR TO KFRG.
OTHERWISE...VFR. 
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THE REST OF THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS, QUITE
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TO NEAR 30 KTS THOUGH THE EVENING.

WIND DIMINISH LATE OVERNIGHT WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE.
NOTE THAT WAVE-WATCH GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH BASED ON INITIAL
CONDITIONS. 

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE 
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...JC/MPS
MARINE...SEARS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...






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