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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210533
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1233 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENDING EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA. 00Z SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS SATURATION TO ABOUT
-10C. HOWEVER...PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN AND THEREFORE SEA SALT MAY
ACT AS ICE NUCLEI...WHICH CAN FORM ICE CRYSTALS AT WARMER TEMPS.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN IS THE TWIN FORKS
OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW LONDON IN CT. MESOSCALE
MODELS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO FLURRIES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OR COATING IN SOME
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.

CLOUD COVER AND A NLY FLOW TODAY KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. THE LAST
DAY OF AUTUMN WILL FINISH AS ONE OF THE COLDEST. WINTER SOLSTICE
IS 603 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR SUPPLY WITH LIGHT
NLY WINDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG INVERSION AT APPROXIMATELY 900 MB. THUS...LOOKING AT
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S WELL INLAND TO AROUND
30 AT THE COAST. 

A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY 
LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE
CT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. THERE COULD ALSO
BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WITH LACK A ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER. OFTEN THOUGH ALONG THE
COAST...SEA SALT CAN LOWER THE ACTIVATION TEMP OF ICE NUCLEI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MORNING FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING BY AFT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. FAR 
EASTERN LI AND SE CT COULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH AN INVERSION.

HIGHS ON SUN WILL APPROACH 40 ALONG THE COAST,,,BUT A FEW DEGREES
COOLER INLAND. THIS COULD VARY BASED ON THE EXTENT OF CLEARING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...WITH LOW-LEVEL NLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING SUN NIGHT.
LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 20S SUN NIGHT...BUT THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST 
MONDAY...AND WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOW 
REMAINS WEAK AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN 
CANADA WEAKENS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS 
MONDAY FRONT CENTRAL CANADA INTO MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
DEEPENING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. DURING WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH BECOMES 
NEGATIVE WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY. SO WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL 
KEEP CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NO 
LONGER DEEPENING WITH COASTAL LOW AND KEEP THE LOW OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES AS THE PRIMARY LOW WITH THE NEGATIVE TROUGH. AS THE LOWS COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW 
LEVEL JET TO NEAR 70 KT DEVELOPS. WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW 
LIMITING MIXING STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER THE LOW 
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT DURING WEDNESDAY AND PERIODS OF 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. WARMING OCCURS TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY WITH ALL LIQUID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. BEFORE 
THAT...MONDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE 
INLAND...HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE THERMAL PROFILE 
OF THE GFS WAS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE 20/00Z ECMWF AND USED A 
BLEND FOR P-TYPE.

AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AFTER 05Z INTO 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PASSING JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z 
THURSDAY. WITH TIMING CONSISTENCY HAVE KEPT THE LIKELY AND 
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND WITH CYCLONIC WEST 
TO NORTHWEST FLOW...STRONG AND GUSTY WIND WILL BE LIKELY. HAVE KEPT 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45 
KT AT TIMES THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THEN FOR 
NEXT WEEKEND ANOTHER INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE 
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND DEPARTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJFK IS MVFR...BUT THEY TOO
SHOULD BE DROPPING SHORTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSING OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
MAINLY E OF NYC...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT VSBY AND CHC'S AREN/T
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CIGS IN NYC METRO AT 12Z AND MVFR COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTN. THEN CONDS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR SUN
NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS AGREEMENT E OF NYC THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
 
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT...THEN LIGHT NLY WINDS COULD BACK
20-30 DEGREES MORE TO THE LEFT OF FORECAST DURING THE DAY
SUN...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN SUN NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON-MON NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN E FLOW. CHC OF RAIN.
.TUE-TUE NIGHT...IFR LIKELY IN RAIN...CIGS AND VSBYS. E WINDS
10-20 KT...BECOMING SE.
.WED...HIGH IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE...IFR LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SE WINDS 25KT+ SHIFTING TO SW LATE WED.
.THU...SUB VFR EARLY IN SHOWERS...THEN VFR WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS 20-25 KT G40 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING NORTH OF THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SEAS GENERALLY
1-2 FT ON THE OCEAN OR 1 FT OR LESS ON ALL OTHER WATERS.

A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WARM 
FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...WITH SEAS ALSO 
REMAINING BELOW 5 FT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA 
WATERS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT WIND 
AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY 
NIGHT...AND ACROSS ALL THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. THEN IN THE COLDER AIR 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY WIND GUSTS WILL BE GALE FORCE ACROSS 
ALL THE WATERS AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING 
TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LATER WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOTAL 1 
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINOR URBAN AND 
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW








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