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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KOKX 161444
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1044 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE AREAS RIDE A
STALLED FRONT TO THE EAST. THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBS.

RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS AND WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH...WITH MIXING
TO AROUND 3500 FT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH OR FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR
THE SAME AREAS THAT HAD THE FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE CITY AND ADJACENT ZONES.
NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN TONIGHT UNLESS TEMPERATURES
FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT IN THE EVENING. THEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING IN
COOLER NORTHERN ATLANTIC AIR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAYS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIALLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE 
HIGH PUSHES NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD 
RIDGING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A 
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE THAT COULD BRING LIGHT PCPN INTO THE AREA BY 
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO 
SAT. 00Z GFS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND 
THE RESULTING PCPN WITH THE SUGGESTION OF INTERACTION BETWEEN A 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/CLOSED 
LOW. ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP A DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SO 
WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH 
UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THE PCPN OCCURS. AN APPROACHING 
FRONT SAT COULD TRIGGER SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SWINGS THROUGH. THINGS THEN DRY OUT FOR SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW 
SETTING UP ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE 
NORTHEAST.   

SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. 00Z GFS LINGERS THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST THEN 
BRINGS A WEAK FRONT IN FROM THE WEST WHILE ECMWF AND CMC BOTH 
DEVELOP A DECENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL FLORIDA AND TRACK 
TO THE NORTH ALONG A STALLED FRONT. FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE OF A 
GFS SOLUTION IN THIS CASE...SO SIDED MORE TO A GFS/WPC 
BLEND...BRINGING POPS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING THEM IN PLACE 
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY AND 
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT. 

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE TRI STATE AREA THURS NIGHT/FRI AS 
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS A COOLER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW DESPITE WAA ALOFT. HOWEVER...AS WINDS SHIFT FOR THE 
WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...TEMPS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH TIMING OF PCPN TO KEEP PCPN IN 
THE FORM OF RAIN. THURS NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE 
EXTENDED...THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN 
AREAS CURRENTLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING.

VFR.

NW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS 
DIRECTIONS VEER TO THE N. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE EAST AT 5-10 KT.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN
HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST THROUGH 
THIS AFTERNOON. 330-350 MAG. END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. END
TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF +/- AN HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THURSDAY...VFR. E WIND G AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SATURDAY...PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCE OF -SHRA. W-NW
WIND G25-30KT POSSIBLE. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ON ALL
WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING.

BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS THURS NIGHT...WITH 
WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 
WATERS. WINDS REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF 
NEXT WEEK. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN DURING THE 
PERIOD...FINALLY SUBSIDING BY LATE SAT. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
BELOW 5 FT INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THAT WOULD HAVE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. 
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE 
TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
TO BE REACHED. MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING APRIL 17:

EWR - 30 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 33
BDR - 30 IN 1962  FORECAST LOW - 31
NYC - 28 IN 1875  FORECAST LOW - 34
LGA - 32 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 36
JFK - 33 IN 1980  FORECAST LOW - 35
ISP - 30 IN 2005  FORECAST LOW - 30

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 
     CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 
     NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...MPS/DS
MARINE...JC/SEARS/MET
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/MET
CLIMATE...









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