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Hydrologic Outlook
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FGUS71 KPBZ 191742
ESFPBZ
MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
007-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-WVC009-029-
049-051-061-069-077-093-103-051745-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1242 PM EST THU FEB 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

|...THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN 
OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND NEAR NORMAL...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH 
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO 
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
FREQUENT PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH 
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY HAS CONTINUALLY REINFORCED THE COLD 
AIR IN THE OHIO VALLEY SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2015 KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. THESE 
FRIGID TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION 
WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...WITH ADDITIONAL ICE COVERAGE ON 
THE MONONGAHELA AND OHIO RIVER BASINS WITHIN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. IN 
ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THESE CLIPPERS HAVE PRODUCED 
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.   

..CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER 
BASIN AND BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM. MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS 
IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL WINTER POOL LEVELS. RESERVOIR STORAGE 
RANGES FROM 1 TO 6 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE 
NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
A DEEP SNOW PACK EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS 
RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. 

ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN WITH 
ICE RANGING FROM 24 TO 72 INCHES IN THICKNESS. ICE HAS ALSO FORMED 
IN A NUMBER OF SMALLER BASINS AS WELL.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NORMAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AN EL NINO PATTERN 
THROUGH MID WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...THE STORM TRACK WILL BE 
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN CURVE UP THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD OR OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. ASIDE FROM AN 
OCCASIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT...MAINLY MINOR 
PRECIPITATION EVENTS WILL OCCUR IN THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO LACK OF 
PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS. 

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL 
OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM...THE FLOOD 
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. 

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH OCCASIONAL 
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE 
DRAINAGE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 
MARCH 5 2015.

$$








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