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Hydrologic Outlook
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FGUS71 KPBZ 041206
ESFPBZ
MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
007-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-WVC009-029-
049-051-061-069-077-093-103-061215-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

|...THERE IS A NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN 
PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN 
MARYLAND.

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS GENERALLY MINOR FLOODING IS 
POSSIBLE. 

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO 
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
PERIODS OF WARM TEMPERATURES IN MARCH ELIMINATED THE SNOWPACK IN THE 
AREA AND COMPLETELY ROTTED THE RIVER ICE.  THE BEGINNING OF GROWING 
SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SOIL CONDITIONS AND HELP REDUCE THE 
OVERALL FLOOD RISK. WITH THESE FACTORS CONSIDERED...THE FLOOD THREAT 
LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMAL. 

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL POOL LEVELS. 
GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT 
ANTICIPATED.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
THERE NO LONGER REMAINS A SNOWPACK IN THE REGION AND RIVER ICE IS 
COMPLETELY GONE.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS HAVE THAWED OVER THE AREA THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS THAT WILL 
ALLOW INFILTRATION INTO THE WATER TABLE INSTEAD OF RUNING OFF.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8-
14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE ENSO CYCLE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN 
EL NINO THIS SUMMER AND FALL...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PLAY A 
NOTABLE ROLE ON THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS 
SPRING. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE SPRING ARE FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...AND NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. 

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO
NORMAL AT SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...
REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER
OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS
NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

$$







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