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Hydrologic Outlook
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FGUS71 KPBZ 041524
ESFPBZ
MDC023-OHC013-019-029-031-059-067-081-111-119-121-157-PAC003-005-
007-019-031-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121-125-129-WVC009-029-
049-051-061-069-077-093-103-181530-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1024 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN 
OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND NEAR NORMAL...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH 
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING TO 
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING 
ACROSS THE REGION.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

..OVERVIEW...
FREQUENT PASSAGE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY HAS CONTINUALLY REINFORCED THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF 2015 KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THESE FRIGID TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN 
SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE...IN OTHER MINOR RIVER BASINS. IN ADDITION TO THE
COLD TEMPERATURES...THESE CLIPPERS HAVE PRODUCED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

..CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE
ERIE DRAINAGE WITH ISOLATED BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS IN A FEW WATERSHEDS
SOUTH OF THE MAINSTEM. MOST RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE REGION ARE AT NORMAL
WINTER POOL LEVELS. RESERVOIR STORAGE RANGES FROM 1 TO 9 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME. GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL. WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SNOW AND ICE COVERAGE...
A DEEP SNOW PACK EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM
1 TO 4 INCHES.

ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN
WITH ICE RANGING FROM 33 TO 60 INCHES IN THICKNESS. ICE HAS ALSO
FORMED IN A NUMBER OF SMALLER BASINS AS WELL.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOILS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NORMAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AN EL NINO PATTERN 
THROUGH MID WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY...THE STORM TRACK WILL BE 
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN CURVE UP THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD OR OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. WITHOUT 
PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS...SIGNIFICANT STORM 
EVENTS WILL NOT DEVELOP OR AFFECT THE OHIO VALLEY. 


...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THE LONG TERM
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. 

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT SPECIFIC
FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS... REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC
AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE
PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH
RESPECT TO NORMAL.

THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH OCCASIONAL 
ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE 
DRAINAGE.


THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 
FEBRUARY 19 2015.

$$







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