000
FXUS61 KPHI 240322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COASTS TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS THIS MORNING AND IT WAS 
USED CLOSER THROUGH TUESDAY DAY BEFORE A MODEL CONSENSUS WAS 
FOLLOWED AFTERWARD. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF-NMM LOOK TOO FAR W WITH THE 
HEAVIER RAIN IN VIRGINIA THRU 18Z. 

THE COASTAL LOWS ARE BURNING A RUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS MONTH 
WITH THIS ONE RELATIVELY WEAKER. A SIMILARITY AREA ALTHOUGH EXISTS 
WITH THE NWWD EXTENT OF THE STEADIER/SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION 
CLOSE TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN 
THE MODELS, THE FORECAST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA 
IS STRONGER IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT THAN THE SECOND HALF. 
TAKING THAT INTO CONSIDERATION, WE EMPHASIZED THE HIGHEST POPS AND 
QPF DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT IN OUR CWA AND SHIFTED IT TO 
THE NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NORTH 
AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST, 
BUT NOT THAT DEEP, GENERALLY BELOW 10K. THIS POINTS MORE TOWARD 
DRIZZLE AS A MAIN PTYPE THAN RAIN. REGARDLESS OVERALL QPF S/B AROUND 
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS NW AND UP TO HALF AN INCH SOUTHEAST. SEE 
NO CONTINUITY OR ANY MASS FIELDS TO SUPPORT THE GFS BULLSEYE NW CWA 
LATE. LIKE OUR PREDECESSOR WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY CONVECTIVE FORCING 
UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE. WE DID ADD FOG FOR THE NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE 
FCST MOIST BOUNDARY LYR. OVERALL BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND UPWIND 
TEMPS, WE PREFER THE HIGHER MOS DATASETS FOR TNGT'S MIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, BUT 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MORE OF A DEFACTO LACK OF LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM HIGH THAN A DEFINITIVE DRIVING FORCE. AS SUCH ITS FCST 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SO HIGH THAT IT WOULD BECOME EASY FOR THE SC 
TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH OR NOT DISSIPATE BECAUSE OF THE WEAK 
NOVEMBER SUN. ALSO IN THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW, THE MODELS ARE 
LINGERING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST TO OUR W, SO IF WE ARE WRONG 
ABOUT THE LACK OF AFTN PCPN, IT WOULD BE WEST. DUE TO THE CLOUDS, WE 
WILL SIDE WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE START OF WEDNESDAY, RELATIVELY SPEAKING 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE LESS AND WE WILL HAVE OUR BEST 
CHANCE AT PARTIAL CLEARING. BECAUSE NEAR THE GROUND MOISTURE IS 
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH, WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE 
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO WHICH WAY THE CLOUDS WILL GO, WE DID 
SIDE WITH THE LOWER MOS STAT GUIDANCE. THE CDFNT APPROACHES OUR CWA 
ON WEDNESDAY. THE PVA WITH THE WRF-NMM IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND 
ECMWF, SO WE WENT WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND LEANED CLOSER 
TO GFS POPS THAN NAM POPS. WE WILL ALSO BLEND THE STAT GUIDANCE 
BELIEVING THERE WILL BE SOME SUN AROUND.

THE WEATHER SCENARIO GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE 
NORTH CAROLINA COAST AS THE 500MB TROF CONTINUES TO DIG FARTHER TO 
THE WEST. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE 
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR OVER OUR CWA AS THE FORMER LOW MOVES 
FARTHER OFFSHORE EAST OF OUR CWA. EVENTUALLY THESE LOWS WILL MERGE 
INTO ONE, PROBABLY ON FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF OUR CWA. IN TERMS OF 
SENSIBLE WEATHER THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN BOTH THE CHANCE AND 
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL 
MORPH INTO MORE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE RAIN AS THE LOWS MERGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, THE SHOWERY WEATHER THURSDAY 
WILL TURN INTO A MORE GENERAL AREA OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT 
AND LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING 
WINDY COLD AND DAMP WEATHER TO OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT 
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING 
OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR SO THAT 
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS, 
ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD 
LINGER IN THE POCONOS INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIR WEATHER HIGH 
PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE 
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE 
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER IN THE 
SOUTH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP JUST A TAD WITH 
READINGS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE ENTIRE STRIP OF COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND TO NJ IS MVFR AND IFR 
DOWN THE COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE DELAWARE RIVER TO THE
COAST. THE BOUNDARY LINE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE SITES KTTN-KPHL-KILG. EAST OF THAT WILL BE IFR AND TO THE WEST
MVFR OR BETTER.

KDOV DOPPLER WIND PROFILE SHOWS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 
KTS TO 7,000 FT THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 26,000 FT. KDIX 
AND TPHL ARE VERY SIMILAR.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND MERGE WITH A 
LOW MOVING ACROSS FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONG 
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING COLD AIR; SOME SNOW TO PARTS OF THE 
REGION AND A VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WIND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 10 PM WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO 26 KT AT BRND1 AND ON LAND
WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 21 KT AT ILG. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED WINDS, I
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA ON DELAWARE BAY A FEW MORE HOURS, IE,
UNTIL 4 AM. 

OTHERWISE...BUOY 44009 WAS STILL REPORTING A 9 FOOT WAVE HEIGHT.
WINDS ARE STILL FROM THE NE AT 23 TO 27 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KT ON THE OCEAN. WAVES INSIDE DELAWARE BAY ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4
FT, EXCEPT UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH ITS CLOCKWISE WIND EXTENDING DOWN THE COAST
INTERACTS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS.

WE CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THE
OCEAN WELL INTO TUESDAY. ON THE DELAWARE BAY, WE HAVE EXTENDED
THE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SINCE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING MORE ONSHORE
WINDS. A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
AIR WITH GALES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDE REACHED BETWEEN 5.3 AND 5.7 FEET ABOVE MLLW IN THOSE AREAS 
WHERE THE THRESHOLD PRIOR TO THE VETERANS DAY STORM WAS 6.0 FOR 
MINOR. HOWEVER, WITH THE EROSION THAT TOOK PLACE LAST WEEK THAT 
THRESHOLD MAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED A BIT FOR SOME AREAS AND COULD HAVE 
RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE 
THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TIDE AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY WITH THE 
DEPARTURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS 
CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 25 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 TO 5 FT ON THE BEACH. 

AT THE OTHER END OF THE SCALE...ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE MAY HAVE 
TO DEAL WITH BLOW-OUT TIDES AS A STRONG COLD LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST 
WITH OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TIME ALWAYS MARCHES ON AND ITS TIME ONCE AGAIN FOR OUR SEMI-ANNUAL 
ANALOG FEST OF TRYING TO COMPARE THIS AUTUMN'S TEMPERATURES AND ENSO 
STATE WITH SIMILAR INSTANCES IN THE PAST. 

THIS UPCOMING WINTER WILL FEATURE EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A MODERATE TYPE EL NINO TO OCCUR. 
THE LAST TWO WINTERS THAT HAD MODERATE EL NINOS WERE 2002-3 AND 
2006-7, ALMOST POLAR OPPOSITE WINTERS IN SPITE OF BEING IN THE SAME 
CATEGORY. THE 2002-3 EL NINO WAS MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7. THE 
2002-3 EL NINO HAD A PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) THAT WAS 
STRONGLY POSITIVE AND THERE WAS A COLD WATER POOL AROUND 
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 2006-7 EL NINO THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION WAS 
MORE NEUTRAL, AND THERE WAS A WARM POOL AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND. SO FAR 
THIS AUTUMN THE EL NINO DOES LOOK MORE WEST BASED THAN 2006-7, THE 
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE AND 
THERE WAS, BUT NOT AT THE PRESENT MOMENT, A NEWFOUNDLAND WARM POOL. 

EARLIER THIS MONTH A WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR CAUSED A 
RAPID WARMING OF THE TROPICAL WATERS WHICH BROUGHT THE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES INTO THE LOW END OF THE STRONG EL NINO 
CATEGORY. SINCE THEN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE 
STABILIZED. AS PER ITS NAME MOST EL NINOS PEAK IN DECEMBER BEFORE 
WEAKENING THE REST OF THE WINTER.

OTHER ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS ALL AFFECT OUR WEATHER PATTERN. 
THE STATE OF THE REST OF THE PACIFIC IS MEASURED BY THE PACIFIC
DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO) IN THE LONGER TERM AND THE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICA OSCILLATION (PNA) IN THE SHORTER TERM. ON OUR SIDE OF THE
COAST WE HAVE THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO). WE ARE IN THE
DECADAL CYCLE WHERE THE PDO IS AVERAGING NEGATIVE. THIS DOES NOT
FAVOR PROLONGED RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A POSITIVE PNA. BUT
IN EL NINO WINTERS, THE PDO CAN AND HAS BECOME POSITIVE AS IT DID
DURING THE WINTERS OF 1982-3 AND 1997-8.

MEANWHILE THE STATE OF THE ATLANTIC AS MEASURED BY THE NAO ALSO 
INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER. A POSITIVE NAO GENERALLY FAVORS MILDER 
WEATHER WHILE A NEGATIVE NAO FAVORS COLDER AND STORMIER CONDITIONS 
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING 
WINTER IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN USUAL WITH MANY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS. THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL AVERAGED WARM DURING THE LATE
SPRING AND SUMMER. USUALLY THE WINTER FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS ONE OF
THE REASONS THAT THE UKMET OUTLOOK FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS FOR
A POSITIVE NAO. BUT, (TU AL) OTHER RESEARCH HAS SHOWN
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN LOWER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES SOUTH OF
ALASKA AND OCEANIC TEMPERATURE DIPOLES AROUND JAPAN IN THE AUTUMN
AND THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. THE SOUTH OF ALASKA SURFACE
PRESSURE AVERAGED LOWER THAN NORMAL AND THE JAPANESE OCEANIC
DIPOLE BOTH CORRELATE TO A NEGATIVE NAO. ON THE OTHER HAND CLIMO 
RESEARCH HAS SHOWN ABOUT A 60/40 SWITCH BETWEEN THE NAO STATE IN
OCTOBER AND THE ENSUING WINTER. THE NAO AVERAGED NEGATIVE IN
OCTOBER. LASTLY THE NEWFOUNDLAND WATER POOL TURNED COOLER THAN
NORMAL AFTER HURRICANE BILL PASSED AND HAS NOT LOOKED BACK YET.

IF THE EL NINO REMAINS AS STRONG AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO WEEKS,  
IT CAN OVERWHELM THE NAO AND PDO AND REDUCE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR 
WEATHER. BUT WITHOUT A CERTAIN STRONG EL NINO, THE FATE OF THIS 
WINTER WILL BE INFLUENCED SOME BY THESE LESS PREDICTABLE 
TELECONNECTIONS. HENCE THIS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD MODERATE EL NINO 
WINTER FROM JUST A PDO AND NAO PERSPECTIVE AS OF TODAY LOOKS LIKE
A CROSS BETWEEN THE WINTERS OF 2002-3 AND 2006-7.

THIS FINALLY TAKES US TO THE LIST OF EL NINO AUTUMNS IN THE PAST IN 
PHILADELPHIA. ALL OF THESE ANALOG YEARS HAD AN OCTOBER THAT WAS IN 
THE AVERAGE OR NORMAL TERCILE OF ALL OCTOBERS DATING BACK TO 1872 
AND A NOVEMBER THAT AVERAGED WARMER THAN NORMAL, IN THE HIGHEST 
TERCILE. 
 
HERE ARE THE BIG EIGHT OF WHAT OCCURRED WITH PAST EL NINOS THAT HAD 
AN AVERAGE OCTOBER AND WARM NOVEMBER. THIS IS BASED ON THE 137 YEARS 
OF RECORD IN PHILADELPHIA. THE NORMALS ARE THE CURRENT 1971-2000 
NORMALS.
  
 
YEAR           ENSUING   ENSUING   ENSUING  AVG    ENSUING ENSUING
               DEC       JAN       FEB      TEMP   PCPN    SNOW

1877-8         40.8      33.0      36.9     36.9    6.41   N/A 
1902-3         33.7      32.6      36.5     34.3   14.44   16.8
1930-1         36.6      36.2      37.4     36.7    6.59    4.1
1963-4         27.9      33.0      31.8     30.9    8.51   32.9
1982-3         41.3      34.1      34.0     36.5    8.14   35.9
1994-5         41.9      38.2      31.5     37.2    7.62    9.8 
2004-5         37.8      31.8      36.1     35.2   10.23   30.4 
2006-7         42.7      38.2      28.0     36.3    7.23   13.4  
 
AVERAGE        37.8      34.6      34.0     35.5    8.65   20.5 
NORMAL         37.4      32.3      34.8     34.8    9.57   19.3

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THIS WINTER HAS THE PHILADELPHIA AREA 
ON THE BORDER BETWEEN EQUAL CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND A SLIGHTLY 
GREATER CHANCE OF THE WINTER BEING COLDER THAN NORMAL TO OUR SOUTH. 
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF BEING EITHER WETTER 
OR DRIER THAN NORMAL. 

SEASONAL SNOWFALLS HAVE TREMENDOUS VARIABILITY IN EL NINO WINTERS
ONCE THE STRENGTH INCREASES TO MODERATE OR GREATER. THE STRONGER
SUBTROPICAL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE EL NINO NOT ONLY INCREASES THE
FREQUENCY OF STORMS, BUT ALSO BRINGS IN RELATIVELY WARMER AIR. WE
HAVE WITNESSED IT THIS AUTUMN WITH THREE STRONG NOREASTERS AND
OTHER WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE QUESTION ALWAYS BECOMES HOW COLD WILL IT 
BE WHEN THESE STORMS ARRIVE. THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST EL NINO
WINTERS OCCUR IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE EL NINO REMAINS WEAK. IN
PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1950 WEAK EL NINOS HAVE AVERAGED 28.1 INCHES OF
SNOW, MODERATE EL NINOS 22.9 INCHES OF SNOW AND STRONG EL NINOS
16.6 INCHES OF SNOW.

USING A MODERATE EL NINO AS THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THIS UPCOMING 
WINTER AND LOOKING BACK AT MODERATE EL NINOS SINCE 1950, WE FOUND 
THAT MODERATE EL NINOS HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR SEVEN OF THE FORTY-SEVEN 
SIX INCH OR GREATER MEASURED SNOW EVENTS IN PHILADELPHIA. FROM AN 
OVERALL PERSPECTIVE THEY HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR 15 PERCENT OF ALL THESE 
EVENTS IN SPITE THAT MODERATE EL NINOS ONLY COMPRISE 10 PERCENT
OF ALL WINTERS SINCE 1950. THE LARGER SNOW EVENTS DURING MODERATE
EL NINO WINTERS FAVOR THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE AS MEASURED IN
PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1950 THERE HAVE BEEN SEVEN EVENTS THAT HAVE
EQUALED OR EXCEEDED SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND ONE THAT HAS EQUALED OR
EXCEEDED TEN INCHES.

THE QUESTION WE WISHED WE KNEW THE ANSWER TO WAS WHETHER THIS 
UPCOMING NINO WINTER WOULD BE A ONE HIT WONDER LIKE 1994-5 OR GO 
PLATINUM LIKE 1982-3 OR 2004-5. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE IS
NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE TRENDS. WE HOPE EVERYBODY HAS A VERY
HAPPY AND HEALTHY THANKSGIVING AND UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND WINTER
SEASON. THE SALT HAS BEEN PURCHASED AND THE SNOW THROWER IS GASSED
AND READY TO GO.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     NJZ020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR 
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...RPW
AVIATION...EBERWINE
MARINE...EBERWINE/RPW/STAUBER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EBERWINE
CLIMATE...GIGI