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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 050153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SLOWLY PUSH MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTS THE AREA
AROUND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS TRULY BITTERSWEET TO BE TYPING THIS, MY LAST FORECAST SHIFT
HERE AT THE MOUNT HOLLY FORECAST OFFICE. WORDS CANNOT EXPRESS HOW
MUCH I WILL MISS THIS OFFICE, THE STAFF, AND THE SUPPORT FROM OUR PUBLIC
IN BOTH FAIR AND INCLEMENT WEATHER. I HAVE SPENT THE PAST 7 YEARS
WORKING HERE, AND HAVING LIVED IN THIS REGION MY ENTIRE LIFE A NEW
ADVENTURE AWAITS AS MY FAMILY AND I MOVE DOWN TO CORPUS CHRISTI,
TX TO START A NEW CHAPTER IN OUR LIVES...THANK YOU ALL! 

BY THE WAY, THE UPDATE WAS ADJUSTED A BIT FOR CLOUD COVER AS THE
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOKED GOOD. (GREG HEAVENER)

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, NAM/GFS/RAP/HRRR
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WOULD
FAVOR MARINE STRATOCU TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT. THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ MAY RADIATE BETTER, WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE LESS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON 
SATURDAY BUT THE HIGH WILL STILL NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. LOOKING ALOFT, THE CENTER OF ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY AND BE 
BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT THE STRATOCU AT THE START OF THE DAY 
TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR AROUND THE 
ANTICYCLONE ADVECTS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS SETUP SHOULD 
YIELD INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE END OF THIS LATE SEASON HEATWAVE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE 
ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S WILL BE COMMON, WITH A FEW 
MID 80S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE 
POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST SATURDAY 
NIGHT, BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY 
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT
THIS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IF IT WERE TO AFFECT AY
PORTION OF THE AREA, IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE DELMARVA.

THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE SLOWED 
DOWN BY THE MODELS. IT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE 
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE 
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SITUATION LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS 
PUSHES THE FRONT OFFSHORE, BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT DOWN FROM 
THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHEAST 
ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA WHILE IT 
DEVELOPS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN 
EITHER CASE, LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY 
PRECPITATION. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK,
WE'VE STAYED CLOSER TO WPC, WHICH GENERALLY USED THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAFS THOUGH DID BRING MVFR CIGS IN A
BIT SOONER AND LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE LOW-LEVELS AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING AS MARINE AIR DRAWS INLAND. THIS WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT
TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE MID MORNING, EXCEPT MAYBE NEAR 
THE COAST. THEREFORE, MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 
ACY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK EACH DAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH 
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER DELAWARE 
BAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

INCREASING SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS 
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE WILL SEE EAS 
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS INTO 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING 
BEFORE ONCE AGAIN GUSTING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, GUSTS ROUND 25 
KNOTS, BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AND RISE TO 4 TO 6 
FEET BY TONIGHT, REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY DON'T LOOK QUITE AS ROBUST INT HE 
EASTERLY FLOW BUT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 25 
KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE A BIT BY 
SATURDAY MORNING AND WE DO NOT FEEL THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THE 
BAY AS IT IS ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY 
HALF OF THE NIGHT, THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY 
PERIODICALLY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ENHANCED FOR TODAY AND 
THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NEW 
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS LOOK TO BE 
STRONGEST ON SATURDAY, WHICH IS WHEN SEAS WILL ALSO BE AT THEIR 
HIGHEST. THE WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. 

THE RISK SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR SUNDAY, POSSIBLY REMAINING
MODERATE, AND THEN LOWER MORE FOR MONDAY.

IT IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT FOR SAFETY AWARENESS TO SHARE THIS 
INFORMATION WITH BEACHGOERS AND LIFEGUARDS, AS THE BEACH CROWD IS 
ANTICIPATED TO BE LARGER THAN NORMAL GIVEN IT IS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA/GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN



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