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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 232322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
722 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY 
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER 
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD 
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD 
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS 
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING 
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS 
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO 
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW 
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS 
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY 
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT'S MINIMUM 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH 
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS 
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM 
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST 
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON 
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW 
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS 
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE 
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S 
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR 
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME; 
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING 
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE 
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND 
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT 
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN 
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH 
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS 
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR 
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND 
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST 
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE 
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A 
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND 
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION 
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN 
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST 
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE 
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC 
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY'S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE 
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE, 
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND 
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS 
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS 
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. 
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD 
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY 
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE 
POCONOS.  

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING 
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT 
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. 

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR 
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO 
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.  

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE






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