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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 161242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
842 AM ESTF UPDATE TO FURTHER DELINEATE MORNING SHOWER RISKS.
BASICALLY PRIMARY SHOWER RISK FROM THIS POINT ON IS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NJ WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDEVELOP SOME
SPRINKLES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING ALONG COASTAL SNJ AT 8AM AS 3 HR PRES FALLS
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM NJ TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 

HAVE ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TODAY...ADDING MORE TO AT LEAST THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER 20 PCT
CLOUDS IN A 930 AM UPDATE TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A WHILE IN
SOME AREAS? TSECTIONS LOOK A LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.
 
A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.  

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.  

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.  

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN 1/2 NJ.
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 12Z COASTAL SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND
13Z FOR MORE CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. 

OUTLOOK... 
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT, 
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD 
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 840A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 840A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 840A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 840A
RIP CURRENTS...840A







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