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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 282140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WORK WEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL 
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE 
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WAS 
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA COAST, WILL ACCELERATE 
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR NW WINDS 
AROUND 5-10 MPH TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WITH RESIDUAL 
CAA ALOFT HELPING TO PROLONG MIXING IN THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER 
(WITH NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES FORECAST). LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF 
GUIDANCE UNDER A LESS THAN IDEAL SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. 
HOWEVER, THE POCONOS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, 
YIELDING A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP LATE TONIGHT AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY EARLY MORNING. 
ELSEWHERE, FORECAST LOWS RANGE THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WX IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FOR MOST 
OF THE DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD 
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, CAUSING THE WINDS, ALBEIT LIGHT, TO 
VEER FROM NLY TO ELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL CANADIAN 
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. EVEN WITH STRONG 
HEATING OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ONLY AROUND 80F WILL BE 
COMMONPLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE START OFF THE LONGTERM PERIOD RATHER TRANQUIL WITH SURFACE 
RIDGING SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. WARM FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY 
SHOULD BE A DRY ONE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING AND DRIER 
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BEHIND THE FRONT MOISTER AIRMASS ADVECTION 
COMMENCES UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, ATTACHED TO A GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM, INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE 
WEEKEND SPILLING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL, 
ULTIMATELY SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN EVEN FURTHER BUT INCREASING THE 
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE 
REGION WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS. FINALLY, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO 
PUSH THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE 
DEPARTING FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND BEGIN TO CLIMB 
TOWARDS NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE AN ABOVE 
AVERAGE START TO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEFORE RETURNING TOWARDS 
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN, TNGT AND FRI. BREEZY NW WINDS 
AROUND 10-15 KT WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST 20-25 KT LATE THIS AFTN 
BEFORE WINDS RELAX AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TNGT, 
BECOMING NELY FRI MRNG AND ELY FRI AFTN.

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOCALIZED FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING POSSIBLE 
AT OUTLYING TERMINALS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND WEST OF 
PHL. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE 
EVERYWHERE. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS 44009 IS NOW UP TO 6 
FEET WITH A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL CRISTOBAL SWELL AND NORTHWEST
WIND GENERATED WIND WAVE. WIND AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH MONDAY AND CROSS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE 
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL 
INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE THRU THIS EVE AS LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL REACH THE NJ AND DE 
COASTS. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AS CRISTOBAL 
HEADS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME, BUT IT MAY APPROACH MODERATE 
EARLY IN THE DAY AT LEAST FOR NJ IF THE SWELLS TAKE LONGER THAN 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLEIN 540P
RIP CURRENTS...






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