000
FXUS61 KPHI 172340
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING ALONG IT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF THE SLOW APPROACHING COLD FRONT, 
TO OUR NORTHWEST, CONTINUES TO TOUCH OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVES ACROSS
SRN NJ ATTM. GUSTY WINDS AND (MOSTLY) SMALL HAIL HAVE ACCOMPANIED
THE CONVECTION. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHRISTINA
RIVER WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THERE EARLIER. 

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS 
AND THESE STORMS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
HOURS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE 
TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT 
BEGINS TO LOSE SOME STEAM AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE 
MID-LEVEL FLOW. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING AND 
A PART OF THE LATE NIGHT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WITH THIS SECOND BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS 
MORNING WITH LESS CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. A BASIC 
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE REGION 
TOMORROW AND AGAIN TOUCH OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BY 
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TIME-FRAME. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL 
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH HELPS WITH LARGER SCALE LIFT IN A 
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MORE CLOUD COVER TOMORROW THAN 
TODAY. STILL NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN 
BE REALIZED TOMORROW. 

THE FLOW ALOFT, WHICH ONCE WAS STRONG, CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ON 
TUESDAY SO ANY STORMS THAT DO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ALLOWING FOR A MUCH SLOWER STORM MOTION. PWATS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY 
HIGH SO ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR IN A 
SHORT TIME PERIOD. 

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN 
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TIME PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA. COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT STILL LOOKS SLOWER THAN
IT DID SEVERAL DAYS AGO, SO RETAINED THE CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH TUE NIGHT AND WED, WITH THE HIGHER POPS ON WEDNESDAY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. LOOKED AT BLEND OF MAV/MET ON TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
FOR TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME-FRAME, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS.  

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH ON SUNDAY BRINGS NEXT POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AND BOTH TEMPS AND POPS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN NJ WILL END IN A FEW HOURS.
MOSTLY VFR INTO THE EVENING...THEN AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP WITH 
LOWER VSBYS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT VARIABLE OR CALM
OVERNIGHT. 

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH FOG ACROSS A 
MAJORITY OF OUR TERMINALS, THEN VFR. THE LIGHT VARIABLE/CALM WINDS 
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP BY LATE MORNING AND BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS 
OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
 
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR LATE DUE TO SOME FOG.

WEDNESDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE 
VFR. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT 
AND TOMORROW. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT 
AND TOMORROW WHILE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY 
BUT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL 
SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

 
OUTLOOK...
RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT SCA CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST FETCH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING SEAS UP TO THE 4
FOOT RANGE, SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/O'HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER