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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 161611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM: ESTF WILL HAVE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN IS BASICALLY DONE NOW.

A VERY NICE AFTN IS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO 15 MPH. 

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT OR CALM WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING TO FCST FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS AT WORST...ABOUT THE SAME AS
EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS. 
ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. 

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. 

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

 
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.  

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.  

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.  

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT. 

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. LIGHT NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY COUNTRYSIDE
FOG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL USE THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL TO CHECK FOR FOG
ON THE 12Z BLENDED GRIDDED GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK... 
WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND PROBABLY CAPPING
SWELLS AT 4 FT. HAVE NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z GFS WW GUIDANCE AS OF
THIS WRITING. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD TURNS
NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH IT.
WE'LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AT AROUND 01Z/17-TONIGHT
WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 ACCORDING THE GFS WW
FCST.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1211
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1211
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1211
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1211
RIP CURRENTS...






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