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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 242000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY 
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD 
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN 
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
FRONTS ON FRIDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET 
DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.

RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE 
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD 
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING 
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH 
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS 
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR 
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES 
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE 
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS 
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT 
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY 
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF 
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR 
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE 
FORECAST FROM BEFORE. 

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND 
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY 
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN THING 
OF NOTE WILL BE THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY 
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS 
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSONS BAY WHICH 
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN 
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A 
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE'LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE 
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION 
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF 
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY 
TIMEFRAME. 

WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE 
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO 
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A 
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT 
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO 
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST 
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS. 
NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS 
LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CANCELLED FOR THE NJ WATERS AT 3PM AS WELL AS DE BAY WITH A NEW 
ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE DE ATLC 
WATERS PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL 
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO 
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT 
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNEDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...DRAG




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