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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 281226
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
726 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY TRACK WEST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS RESULTING A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. A CALM WIND...MCLEAR SKY AND SNOW
COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO ARND -25F IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE NW MTNS AT 11Z...AND ARND 10F IN THE WARMEST URBAN AND
HILLTOP LOCATIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. 

FAIR AND STILL COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS
OVR THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING MID LVL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL
MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. LOW PWAT AIR MASS
WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CONCERNS. HOWEVER...CIRRUS MAY DIM THE
SUNSHINE AT TIMES. ENS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLW NORMAL
FOR THE DATE...LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20-25F RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
ALREADY SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LGT SNOW ALONG DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE S PLAINS INTO THE TENN VALLEY. BLEND OF
LATEST MDL OUTPUT SUGGESTS LGT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE W MTNS
BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE HEADS NORTH. FOR THE REST
OF CENTRAL PA...LGT SNOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY LATE AM.

HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL STRONGER FORCING
ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF N STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GRT
LKS SUNDAY PM. ASSOC LL JET AND SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
LKLY CHANGE LGT SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN PA LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WHILE MDL SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE PTYPE
PLUMES INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-80.

CONSALL QPF...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SNOW/WATER RATIOS NOT MUCH
BETTER THAN 10/1...POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6-8 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. WILL KEEP WINT STORM WATCH IN
PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA AND MENTION A NUISANCE-TYPE WINTRY MIX FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE HWO. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS WEAK SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT PASS THRU THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BLUSTERY AND COLD WX APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRES SYSTEM. PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL TROF MAY SUPPORT SOME
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WEST OF
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING STORM EAST OF NEW ENG. 

MED RANGE GUIDANCE DISPLAYING SIMILAR TIMING W/RESPECT TO NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT PA TUE/WED. SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FAIR WX LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRES TRACKING
WEST OF PA WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY. PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY TO TURN TO RAIN TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WED...AS LOW TRACKS THRU THE GRT LKS AND SFC HIGH WILL BE IN AN
UNFAVORABLE POSITION SE OF PA TO HOLD IN LOW LVL COLD AIR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH PASSAGE OF TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY
WED. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP WED PM/THU AM...AS SOME MED
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WAVE FORMS ON DYING FRONT SOUTH OF PA.
THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF EITHER RAIN/SNOW
SOMETIME LATE WED OR EARLY THU. 

BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM...ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS AND POPS BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LARGE 1044MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PA
AT 12Z WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY BEFORE MID DECK
THICKENS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TODAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PA AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG. AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA TYPE SNOWFALL
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY STARTING AROUND 09Z. AT THE
SAME TIME...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SRN PA LATER SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN GOOD INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP AND REDUCED FLYING CONDS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING FROM W TO E.

SUN...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW
ACROSS NRN PA...WHILE MIXING W/ SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MON...CONTINUED CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AM.

TUE...VFR AM. MIXED PRECIP WITH CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS CONTINUE IN WINTRY MIX/RAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD IS STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 27TH...IPT 18.4...MDT 20.9.

THE CURRENT RECORD COLDEST FEBRUARY..IPT 19.3...MDT 21.4 BOTH SET
IN 1934.

SO FAR...THIS MONTH IS THE THIRD COLDEST EVER AT IPT...AND FOURTH
COLDEST EVER AT MDT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT AND KIPT TEMPERATURES READING FAR TOO WARM. OBSERVER AT KMDT
REPORTED 27F AS THE MAX BASED ON BACKUP OBSERVATION AND NEAREST
NEIGHBOR. PARTS ON ORDER FOR KMDT BUT KIPT TEMP SPIKE/TROUBLE IS
NEW TODAY AND WILL BE INVESTIGATED. USING 28F FOR MAX IN KIPT
FOR TODAY 2/27 BASED ON NEAREST NEIGHBOR OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING 
FOR PAZ004-005-010-011-017.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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