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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 230129
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
829 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF PENNSYLVANIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. ANOTHER
LESS POTENT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WHILE THE PRECIP MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD THRU THE AREA STARTS AS
A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...IT IS THEN RAIN. SOMERSET CO EMA
HAS REPORTED MANY PROBLEMS DUE TO THE ICING THERE. MANY LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY AND CONTINUE SO ACROSS THE NORTH.
WHILE THE PRECIP MAY BE MORE MIXED IN THE NC MTS...IT WILL GO TO
RAIN THERE...TOO. AND IN BETWEEN THE SLEET AND PLAIN RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FZRA. RAIN NOT VERY HEAVY...SO DZ IS
MORE LIKELY...AND THE COVERAGE IS SPREADING/BLOSSOMING ON THE
RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS MD/NRN VA. THUS...WE HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST A TRACE OF FZRA IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT
WARREN CO - WHERE IT MAY NOR PRECIP AT ALL - AND THE AREAS RIGHT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE MAIN STEM SUSQ RIVER. HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVY AREA TO THE NORTH...AND WILL PLAN ON CHOPPING OUT COUNTIES
WHEN WE ARE FAIRLY SURE THAT THE THREAT HAS ENDED IN THOSE AREAS -
EVEN IN THE HILLS. 

THINGS ARE GRADUALLY TURN ALREADY WITH HGR - ONE OF THE FIRST
SITES TO HAVE ZR - GOING TO PLAIN RAIN AT 33F. THV ALSO 33F...BUT
THE HILLS IN NWRN YORK CO AND ADAMS/FRANKLIN COS WILL PROBABLY
STAY BELOW FZG FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO CHANGE TO RAIN BY OR AFTER 05Z. IT
WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD.
MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S
SOUTH...FOR THE MOST PART RISING THROUGH DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKING AT MAINLY A CLOUDY DAY ON TUE...WITH SOME PATCHY 
LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MAINLY 
IN THE 40S...AS THE MAIN LOW IS TOO FAR WEST FOR CENTRAL 
PA TO BE IN MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.

BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED...AS
COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S ON WED...AS STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP.

WENT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER WED EVENING...GIVEN DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ALSO FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
AND WIND FIELDS. LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
TIME OF DAY AND THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

WIND GUST COULD BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE LATE. 

DID NOT BUY INTO THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THU. A FEW SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. NOT REAL COLD BEHIND THE FRONT.

SW FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL BRING IN MILD AIR. 

A FEW MORE SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 
FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS.

WENT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. NOT REAL COLD FOR
LATE DEC. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT...BUT WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR NOW.

WITH SPLIT FLOW...THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR A SOUTHERN
WAVE TO BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA ANYTIME 
FROM SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE
ANYTHING WOULD BE FAST MOVING...AND MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE LIGHT ICING...GIVEN COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNATURE AND IMPLIED LOW-LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC NORTHERLY FLOW
HOLDING LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE CONTINUES THOUGH ALL THROUGH CENTRAL PA. CURRENTLY
TEMEPRATURES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS ARE BELOW
FREEZING. EXPECT THE AIR TO BE BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EVENING...WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUING UNTIL
MORNING. DUE TO THE INVERSION AND THE TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SHOWERS...SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z.
 LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
REDUCING CIGS CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. 
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT JST DUE TO THE DECOUPLE SFC WINDS AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. 

OUTLOOK...


WED...PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY.
LLWS LIKELY.

THU...WINDY AND COLDER WITH SCT MVFR CIGS AND -SHSN. LLWS.

FRI...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR.

SAT...FAIR AND MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/CERU



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