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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 230608
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WILL FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY ON A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED FAR SOUTHEASTERN PA AS OF 05Z.

AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO CU COVERED THE REGION
NORTH OF INTERSTATES 70/81...AND COULD SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EARLY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER 2 OR 3C OF COLD ADVECTION
OCCURS WITHIN THE 925-850 MB LAYER.

THE AIR HAD BECOME COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MTNS /INVOF KBFD/ TO
CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. CAN/T RULE OUT A LIGHT
COATING ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY ABV FREEZING.

AN OCCASIONAL -SHRASN /CHANGING TO -SHSN/ WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SE
AS THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR FROM KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT...WITH
JUST SPRINKLES FOR THE MOST PART FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

NW WINDS WILL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...TO MID 20KT RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BEFORE VERTICAL MIXING /AND PEAK WIND GUSTS/ INCREASES
BENEATH THE DEEPEST COLD AIR LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
HOURS WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30KTS BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.

HOURLY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH DAYBREAK MINS AROUND FREEZING
ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS.. AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
COOL POOL ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF STRATOCU ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS.
HOWEVER...DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROF SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH WEDNESDAY...AS PA REMAINS IN
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN LOW OVR NEW ENG AND HIGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY
FROM THE 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS TO THE U50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT A MAINLY SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OFF THE EASTERN LAKES HAVE PRODUCED AN
EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT
AND ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN TO
FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. 

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON /WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING
NWS OFFICES...WE HAVE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 15Z
TODAY TO 00Z THU FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY
AND NORTHWARD TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS 
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN 
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT



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