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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 011546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1146 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
15Z...VISIBLE STLT LOOP SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT RETURNS ALSO MOVG FROM SW
TO NE FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE S-CNTRL MTNS WITH NEARBY
ASOS SITES PICKING UP BTWN T AND 0.01".

WEAK LG SCALE FORCING COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY /FURTHER
HINDERED BY CLOUD COVER/ AND VERY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE PCPN ACTIVITY THIS AFTN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED IN CVRG /ISOLD-SCT/...WITH MOST AREAS PROBABLY GETTING BY
WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY/MAINLY DRY AND RATHER MUGGY LABOR DAY.

MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A WELL-DEFINED COLD
FRONT STARTS TO PUSH EWD THRU THE GRT LKS/OH VLY. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR NW BASED ON MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
QPF. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS 65-70F. LGT WINDS AND HI DEWPOINTS
ALONG WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FAVORS SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG ESP IN
THE ERN ZONES/SUSQ VLY REGION. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY. 

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z...LIFR-IFR CIGS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED TO MAINLY MVFR OR LOW
END VFR AS OF 15Z. EXPECT THIS TREND TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTN WITH ALL SITES BCMG MVFR OR BETTER BY 18Z. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN SHWR AND TSTM ACTIVITY GIVEN WEAK FORCING/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
SPARSE CVRG /ISOLD-SCT/ AND LOW CONFIDENCE WILL RESULT IN ONLY VC
SH/TS MENTION GOING INTO THE 18Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY PROMOTING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/FOG INTO TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVG
EWD THRU THE MIDWEST WILL ALSO BRING THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
REACH THE NW 1/4 TO 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE BY DAYBREAK TUES. THIS
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS TUES AFTN-EVE AS IT
MOVES ACRS CENTRAL PA. ATTM THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK FOR SVR
STORMS.

OUTLOOK... 
WED-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL



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