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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241436
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1036 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BRINGING WET WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A FEW STRATO-CU CLOUDS HAVE INVADED MY FAR SWRN ZONES...OTHERWISE
SKIES ARE CRYSTAL CLEAR AND THE BRIGHT EARLY SPRING SUN IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE NICELY.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
LURKING TO OUR WEST AND WILL MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WE WILL HOWEVER BE DRY AND MILDER THAN WEDNESDAY.
ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S
OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE WIND.
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20
MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE MISS VALLEY. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE
IDEA OF RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.  RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM A LIGHT WIND AND STILL RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
U20S IN THE COOL SPOTS OF THE N MTNS...TO THE U30S ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND SC MTNS. SERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LAST...THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF FROST ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS/SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHC OF SHRA TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. HAVE RAMPED POPS UPWARD TO NEAR 100 PCT ACROSS THE
W MTNS AND S TIER COUNTIES BASED ON 00Z GEFS AND OPER MDL RUNS.
ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN HUNG UP WEST OF THE MTNS...THERE
COULD POTENTIALLY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A TSRA
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING FRI NIGHT AS OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES EAST
OF THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
REGION SAT...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A SHRA IN SPOTS.

ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING OMEGA BLOCK SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH UPPER LOWS OVR THE PLAINS AND EAST OF NEW ENG...WHILE PA IS IN
A REGION OF RIDGING/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN. HOWEVER...OUR
DRY WX IS LIKELY TO COME TO AN END LATER NEXT WEEK...WHEN BULK OF
MDL DATA DRAWS UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO DRAW A PLUME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD PA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE BEGUN TO
RAMP UP POPS TUE INTO WED...WHEN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO OVERRUN WARM FRONT SOUTH OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH
JUST SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 

A GUSTY NW WIND CAN BE EXPECTED...ESP OVER EASTERN AREAS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS
WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG IN THIS REGION AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE
AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...



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