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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 180618
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING SCT-BKN STRATOCU ACROSS THE N MTNS AT 06Z ASSOC
WITH LIMITED LAKE MOISTURE IN NW FLOW. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS BTWN 06Z-12Z...AS INVERSION HGT LOWERS. TEMPS
ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE UTEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE M20S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE MID WINTER EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A GUSTY NW WIND
CREATES WCHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE AM COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
FAIR AND CHILLY WX TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY LATE
TODAY. DEEPENING BLYR DEPTH WILL DRAW DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS BY
AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO ARND 25KTS DURING
THE AFTN. 

VERY LOW PWAT AND MOSTLY FROZEN LAKES EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MSUNNY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...BUILDUP OF DIURNAL CU
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF MCLDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
PA DURING THE AFTN BASED ON LATEST MDL RH TIMESECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIR WX...LGT WIND AND STILL COOL CONDS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AS
SFC HIGH PASSES OVR PA. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PA FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS THRU THE REGION. GEFS/ECENS BOTH INDICATE
SFC LOW REMAINS WEAK AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK SFC LOW AND HIGH OFF THE NEW ENG
COAST...SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW/OVERRUNNING FOR A
LIGHT TO MOD PRECIP EVENT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ANY WARM UP
DURING THE DAY ALLOWS THE SNOW TO MELT AND FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO OCCUR. THOUGH ATTM...GEFS PLUMES AND MEAN 8H
0C ISOTHERM IN ECENS SUGGEST MOST LIKELY PTYPE IS SNOW...THOUGH IT
COULD SWITCH IN THE AFTERNOON SO SOME RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE S
TIER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY EVENING. 

A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT THRU NEXT WEEKEND AMONG MED RANGE
GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DEEP TROUGH FORMING OVR THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC
COAST. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL INDICATE PASSAGE OF A SHARP
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WELL BLW NORMAL TEMPS
SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW CLDS ACROSS THE WEST AND NW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS 
MADE TO 03Z TAFS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THU...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 

IT WILL BE WINDY INTO WED. 

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN WED NIGHT.

PERHAPS SOME RAIN AND SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THINK MOST OF THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SE...AT SITES LIKE
MDT AND LNS. NOT SURE MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN. A LOT OF ENERGY COMING IN FROM DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SE FOR SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR/NO SIG WX. 

THU-NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR PSBL IN RA/SN ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES 
TRACKING ALONG MID-ATLC/NORTHEAST COAST.

SAT...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR/IFR PSBL NW IN -SHSN.

SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN



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