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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 241536
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 
TODAY...AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE WARMEST DAY WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREAS OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN MTNS...AND COLD AIR STRATO CU
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER EAST OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...HAVE ERODED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING WAS HELPING TO CREATE AN AREA OF BKN
CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN PENN ABOVE A
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN
/ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQ VALLEY/ WAS
AN AREA OF SUNNY SKIES. INCREASING /THOUGH MAINLY THIN/ HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

WEST TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH /GUSTING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE/ WILL GRADUALLY BACK BY ABOUT 30-45 DEG
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 5-7F ABOVE NORMAL /OR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MTNS AND 6-65F THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GETS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SLACKENS THE WIND.
THE MINOR WORRY FOR TONIGHT IS THAT TEMPS MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST IN THE CENTRAL COS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE N/W OF
IPT/UNV/AOO. STILL...THE TEMPS ARE MARGINAL WITH U30S A GOOD BET
AND M30S NOT SO PROBABLE DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING AOA THE M30S. 

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DAY TO TAILGATE...ALL DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE RISING TO BETWEEN 55F AND 65F AS 8H TEMPS
WILL BE HANGING BETWEEN 5C AND ALMOST 10C IN THE AFTN. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BEFORE DARK AND SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE WHOLE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL FALL IN
THE NW...BUT ALL THESE SHOULD DRY UP AS THEY DESCEND THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT AND GET GUSTY AT AND JUST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WELL-ALIGNED WIND PROFILE AND UP TO 50KT
WINDS AS CLOSE AS 5KFT OFF THE GROUND. WILL MENTION GUSTS INTO THE
20S BUT DECOUPLING AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE MY KEEP THE
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS FROM GETTING DOWN TO THE SFC. THE WIND SAT
NIGHT WILL KEEP IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A HIGH LEVEL OF AGREEMENT AMONG ALMOST ALL THE MED RANGE GUID
YIELDS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OUT TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A WIDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST JUST A BIT
WHILE FLATTENING OUT SOME. SFC HIGH OVER DIXIE WILL SLIDE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA AND LEAD TO A WARM SRLY FLOW. A TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MON AND TUES. HIGH TEMPS
ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S IN THE SOUTH...OR
ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW WITH THIS LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE TUES INTO WED.
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OFF THE LOW WILL WHIP
THROUGH - PERHAPS FAIRLY DRY - LATE TUES AND TUES NIGHT. IT SHOULD
THEN HANG UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WILL THEREFORE DRAW
THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER
SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN TIER FOR WED. THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS
SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER
NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND IT IF THE EC IS YOUR
PREFERENTIAL MODEL DU JOUR. OTHER SOLNS ARE NOT QUITE SO PROFOUND
WITH THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH AND COLDNESS OF THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT. IN ANY CASE...THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEARS TO MOVE
OUT VERY QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ERODED THE
PREVIOUS LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS...WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL
CENTRAL PENN AIRFIELDS. 

AN AREA OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS PENN LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...ABOVE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO
AVIATION...LAMBERT



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