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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 291840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
240 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND OFF SHORE TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND THE LIGHT SE WIND - ESPECIALLY
ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ON THE SERLY/UPSLOPE WIND
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO GET THESE CLOUDS IS THE SC
MOUNTAINS. BUT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT EXTEND ALL THAT FAR TO THE
NORTH ACCORDING TO 925MB RH PROGS FROM MOST MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF
SHORE. STRONG WARM ADVECTION STARTS TONIGHT. SOME LOWER CLOUDS
WILL TRY TO FORM AS THE SERLY FLOW GETS MORE MOIST AND IS LIFTED
UPWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE PUT LESS FOG IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 50S AREA-WIDE. THE MORE-MOIST AIR AND
HEATING OF THE DAY ON SAT MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHOWER IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL THEN 
INCREASE EACH DAY INTO MID WEEK. 

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM. 

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...DANGELO



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