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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 310547
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
147 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH DYING OVER THE REGION AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
MONDAY MORNING...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS ARE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...
A PASSING AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMALS ALL WEEK...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...
AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER
THAN SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
925-850 MB THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ENE
THROUGH PENN EARLY TODAY...WITH A WEAK...STALLED-OUT SFC FRONT
EXTENDING FROM DETROIT...SW TO ST LOUIS. 

THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT TRIGGERED ISOLATED TO SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE NE
OF THE REGION AS OF 0530Z TODAY.

PLENTY OF BKN-OVC ALTO CU /TOPPED BY SOME CIRRUS/ BLANKETED 
THE SE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF PENN EARLY TODAY...WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE L60S WERE FOUND INVOF
KBFD. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S - A RATHER
MUGGY EARLY MORNING FOR THE FINAL DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

ASIDE FROM A HIGHLY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON THE
RADAR SCOPE EARLY TODAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PENN WILL BE DRY WITH A VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPRAWLING
WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
FOCUS FOR POOLING MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS ACROSS MY FAR SOUTH. AGAIN...AREAS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD BE DRY AFTER 06Z AS DEFORMATION LESSENS AND FORCING
FOCUS SHIFTS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MY SOUTHERN TIER.

SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESP IN PLACES WHICH HAD RAINFALL AND THOSE
WHICH SEE MORE CLEARING THAN OTHERS. MINS WILL RUN IN THE 60S
IN PRACTICALLY ALL LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER
THAN 60F. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS NEAR...AND THE EAST OF
KBFD WILL SEE A LOW TEMP IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT REALLY COME DOWN SOUTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW US TO
DRY OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EASTWARD BUT SOME SEMBLANCE OF TROFFINESS REMAINS ACCORDING
TO MOST GUID. WITH THE SFC HIGH RETURN FLOW INCREASING...A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE MON...BUT MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR NORTH. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LINGERING SHRA OVER THE SOUTH IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...AND MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL SHRA IN
THE NRN TIER. MAXES WILL BE A FEW DEGS HIGHER THAN SUNDAY'S -
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET RID OF MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR A SHORT
TIME - BECAUSE 8H TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 2C WARMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE REMAINING FIRM FOR AN EXTENDED RUN OF 850HPA TEMPS
PEAKING DAILY AROUND 16-18C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-
NORMAL SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT
WARM MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
QUITE LOW.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE MIDWEEK /WED-THU-FRI/ WITH A
COUPLE SUBTLE FEATURES. FIRST...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE /BEST
PROGGED ON THE ECMWF/ SLIPS OVERHEAD ON WED AS BERMUDA HIGH
BRIEFLY RECEDES. AT SAME TIME A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD HELP POOL SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVELS COOL
JUST A BIT...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN FOR FRI...BUT ANOTHER SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONT TRIES TO SLIP
ACROSS THE STATE AS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SCT CONVECTION FOR FRI.

EXTENDED MODELS HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR DAILY CONVECTION CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG SOUTHER BORDER...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE.

TEMPS PEAK MIDWEEK WITH READINGS APPROACHING 90F IN THE SE...AND
EVEN GETTING INTO THE 80S ELSEHERE...EASILY WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPT. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD MID/LATE
WEEK AS HIGH HUMIDITY AIR HANGS AROUND. SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 03Z STILL SHOWING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA. LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

FOCUS OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD POTENTIAL OF FOG. LIGHT WIND
AND PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PA. CLIMATOLOGY AND LATEST SREF/MOS
SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR VIS REDUCTIONS LATE
TONIGHT. ALSO...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DENSE FOG AT KIPT...WHERE
GROUND IS NOW WET FROM A SHOWER EARLIER THIS EVENING. COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. FEEL CONFIDENT THESE MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BE THICK
ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ASSOC DENSE FOG
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. HOWEVER...NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KIPT.

ANY AM VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR VERY
LIKELY MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS...MAINLY KBFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT 
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT 
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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