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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 240327
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1127 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. COOL
AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT 
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATE EVENING IR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
PA. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND ARRIVAL OF VERY DRY AIR MASS...AN
ACTIVE NW WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAST ACROSS
EASTERN PA. THE COLDEST TEMPS BY FAR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES...WHERE APPROACH OF SFC HIGH MAY ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME CALM AND TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 20S. WHILE A
BIT OF FROST CAN/T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...THINKING
IS THAT THE WIND WILL KEEP FROST AT BAY. NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR THE POCKETS OF FROST AND NORMAL CHILLY AREAS
WHERE LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN WEATHER ELEMENT OF CONCERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WIND. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED GUSTY
WIND...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN PA. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AOA 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER WEST. 

THE STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM
THE CHILLY MORNING. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE
U50S OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE L60S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TRIPLE POINT FURTHER
SOUTH...THUS DID NOT ADD THUNDER. TEMPS LOOKING COOLER NOW.
STILL SOME CHC FOR A SHOWER EARLY FRIDAY AM ACROSS WESTERN
WARREN CO.

FOR SAT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SE.

WENT DRY FOR SUNDAY...FLOW IS FROM THE NORTH...AND RATHER
DRY...EVEN WITH SOME UPPER LVL SUPPORT...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON.

LEFT MONDAY DRY. HOWEVER...DID BRING SHOWERS IN FASTER 
NOW...MONDAY NIGHT...INSTEAD OF TUE. AMOUNTS WILL BE 
LIGHT...GIVEN THAT MAIN SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH.

POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO
BE VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE
SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY PERFECT WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT WITH A
LINGERING GUSTY WIND IN THE 15-20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN AREAS. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN-MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RH/S WILL EASILY MEET
CRITERIA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ042-
051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...



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