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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 020159
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
959 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WHEN
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER EVENING TO CLOSE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND
OVER CENTRAL PA...AFTER SOME EARLIER HEAVY DOWNPOURS TRACKED
ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
AND EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS
(LANCASTER COUNTY). THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF
WHICH TRACKED INTO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER FARTHER 
SOUTH TRACKING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN MD. 

A THIRD UPPER TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST PA FROM NRN KY AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN OH...AND MAY STILL TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. 
MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WELL WEST OF CENTRAL PA...OCCURRING
WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE
CROSSING LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR...DESTINED FOR NY STATE...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH WARREN COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MY CWA OVERNIGHT.
POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN AS PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY
APPROACHES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND LLVL MOISTURE ABUNDANT.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THIS MUGGY AIR
MASS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT /WITH SHARP MSTR- PW GRADIENT/ WILL DROP
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE TUE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY POTNL TSTM HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION LKLY ONGOING AT 12Z ALONG
WITH RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION EARLY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK TO POOR...THE MODELS SHOW A BELT OF
STRONGER WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PCPN/INTENSITY AS
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ZONES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ORGANIZATION
INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST AN ISOLD
DMGG WIND THREAT...WARRANTING AN UPGRADE BY SPC TO A CATEGORICAL
/SLGT/ RISK DESIGNATION. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN UPDATED
HWO.

EARLY CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK FOR A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH FCST
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A COOLER/DRYING TREND BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH PWS FALLING AOB NORMAL BY 12Z WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING A TRANSITION TO A NOTICABLY DRIER AIRMASS FOR MIDWEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
NIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR 50F IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TO AROUND 60F IN
THE SE. 

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING MORE
HUMID AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LIFTING INTO
S CANADA ON FRI...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG BEHIND. AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES...AN AREA OF HIGHER PWATS /1-2"/ SURGES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...AND THEN INTO PA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT SAME TIME A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING FRI NIGHT IN THE NW AND
SPREADING AREAWIDE ON SAT. 

BEHIND THE FRONT...AIRMASS CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL
BACK ABOUT 10F...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...MORNING LOWS SHOULD
DIP WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS THE LOSS OF HEATING RAISED THE
STABILITY AND PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK WAVE HAS LEFT US IN A LULL.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM OHIO AND IS TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWERS TO THE WEST. NAM BLOSSOMS THIS AREA AS THE SWRLY FLOW
INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD. BUT WILL LEAV IT MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NW. THE 70PLUS DEWPOINTS AND UPSLOPE INTO
THE WRN MTS WILL CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
BE MAINLY VFR.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWRD OVER THE LOWER LAKES LATER IN THE DAY
WILL MEAN THE AREA WILL STAY IN THE WARM-SECTOR AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A BETTER FOCUS FOR NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING AS IT
MOVES SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK... 
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. 
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. 
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO



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