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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 301739
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

RADAR IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO FIRE FROM THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WORKED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
PA...BUT THE FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES IT WILL BASICALLY JUST STALL OR WASHOUT OVER THE AREA.

THE MAIN THREAT TODAY INTO THE EVENING WILL BE FOR BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. MODEL FORECAST CAPES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MODEST SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
REMAIN LOW...ISOLATED AT BEST. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE WEAK...SO
THE THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

AS THE UPPER LOW GRINDS TO A HALT OVERHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS A THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT A
CONTINUOUS OR WIDESPREAD RAIN BY ANY MEANS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A STEADY DECLINE IN THE
FORCING FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT LOOKS QUITE CLOUDY BUT
MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS UNDER THE "COOL" CORE ALOFT.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. EXPECT HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW/COMPACT TROF AXIS OVER THE NERN U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER AND EXPANSIVE UPPER
TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW ANCHORED OVER NRN
ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND.

WARMER WEATHER MAKES A BRIEF RETURN THUR...FRI AND EARLY SAT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS....WITH MAXES AND MINS AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND TROF WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WITH DEEPER CONNECTIONS TO THE GOMEX AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THUS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS TO
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE THEN
EXPECTED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LINGERING MVFR OVER SERN AREAS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND THIN OUT. 

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY ENTERING WRN PA
WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST WHILE NEW CONVECTION POPS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA. ARRIVAL OF COOLING
ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW FAVORABLY TIMED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD-SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL IN THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

EXPECT CONDS TO TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND SHOWERS
LINGER INTO WED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A DRYING/IMPROVING TREND WED. THE CHC OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THU...LOW CIGS LIKELY EARLY...AND COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FUELING A MOIST MARITIME FLOW E OF THE
APPLCHNS.

FRI...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LKLY ASSOC WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT. LLWS LKLY DUE TO STG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF
THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE OVER N/WRN AREAS.

SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE



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