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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 230536
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1236 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL RETURN
MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CANCELLED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. THE LINGERING ISOLATED NEAR
FREEZING MESONET TEMPS OVER CLINTON AND LYCOMING COUNTY ARE
WARMING ABOVE FREEZING CURRENTLY...WHILE RADAR INDICATES LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THAT AREA. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN PA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS LLVL CONVERGENCE IS LOST WITH THE EXIT AND DISSIPATION
OF LLVL JET INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ARRIVING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP GOOD SRLY FLOW GOING. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
IN THE 30S SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RUN AT 50F ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE
SNOWPACK IN THE FAR NW COULD THEN KEEP THEM IN THE 40S. THE
HEIGHTS RISE FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WAVE BRINGS
HIGHER CLOUDS BACK INTO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY HANG TOUGH IN THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT
WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. 

PHASING OF SPLIT-STREAM ENERGY WILL YIELD A DEEP 980MB LOW /-3 TO
-4 STD MSLP/ LIFTING NWD THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO SERN CANADA ON
MONDAY...TRACKING TO OUR WEST. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
MAINLY SUN NGT. THIS HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CATEGORICAL RANGE. SURGE OF WARMER AIR /850MB TEMPS AOA 10C/
WILL BRING HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 55-65F
RANGE...PUSHING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND FINISHING ABOUT 10-20F
ABOVE NORMAL. WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS FROPA MONDAY
NIGHT USHERS BACK IN COOLER AIR AND RETURN OF WESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN COLDER TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING AND ESP THE WEEKEND AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING PERSISTENCE OF THE ERN CONUS
MEAN TROUGH. 

FINALLY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN ATLC DURING
THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED AS THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MSTR SHIELD MAY CONTAIN SNOW.
SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12Z SAT SUITE COMING IN WITH SIMILAR TRENDS TO
THE 00Z SUITE...BOTH UNFORTUNATELY WITH MIXED SOLUTIONS. GEFS
LARGELY FOCUSED ON A MOSTLY OFFSHORE STORM TO AFFECT THE
FISHES...WHILE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
INLAND SNOWFALL IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT... ONE OF
THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS AREAS AND WILL
DO SO INTO THE EARLY AM. ONLY KBFD REPORTING SUB VFR CONDS WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS. NEAR SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING COULD STILL LEAD TO
SLICK SPOTS ON GROUND SURFACES. CIGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FOR A
SHORT TIME OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN HAS MOISTENED UP THE LOWER ATMOS.

LLWS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP - ONLY KBFD HAS A POSS - BUT
IT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.

TUE...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

WED AND THUR...MVFR/IFR POSS EAST. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER



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