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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 221909
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE RECENT SIEGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY
FROM AN APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONTAL SYSTEM. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
PA AT THIS HOUR...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AT MID AFTERNOON 
CONTINUING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. CAPES OF 500 TO 750 J/KG EVIDENT IN FORECAST MDL AND LAPS 
SOUNDINGS WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN CONCERT WITH
PW ~1.5". NW TO SE STORM MOTION IN VICINITY OF QUASISTATIONARY
BOUNDARY CAN PRODUCE IDEAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR LOCALIZED LLVL
ROTATION...BUT 0-3KM EHI NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS THU AFTN.

HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...BACKDOOR FRONT WITH EASTERLY FLOW
OVER ERN PA PUSHES WWD TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT OVERNIGHT...
WHILE CONVECTIVE PRECIP WANES AND STRATUS THICKENS AND SPREADS
WEST. THINK PREVIOUS FORECAST/S IDEA OF DRIZZLE AND RIDGE-
SHROUDING FOG ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY SATURDAY
MORNING.

TEMPS WON'T DROP OFF FAR SATURDAY MORNING UNDER CLOUD COVER...
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ONE MORE MOIST DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
AND SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER TROF ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD COMBINING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MUCH
DRIER PW IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BY LATE SATURDAY FOR IMPROVEMENT AT
THAT TIME.

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MORNING DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO SAT AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN MTNS MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE UPPER 60S...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY. FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS...AWAY FROM THE MARITIME FLOW AND
IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MAY WARM INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A RIDGE DOMINATING THE PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN US.

THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NERN US SLIDING EAST
MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE
FAIR WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND MAINTAINS ITS HOLD UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED TO
APPROACH...ALBEIT IN DIFFERENT FASHIONS BY THE VARIOUS MED RANGE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES. 

THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST LATER
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GEFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC BRINGING MEASURABLE
RAINS EAST QUICKER UNDER A FLATTER UPPER FLOW. THE GEFS UPPER
PATTERN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWING A
WEAKER TROUGH HANGING BACK IN THE MID WEST AS HEIGHTS IN THE EAST
SLOWLY FALL WITH THE EAST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING OUT IN TIME.

THE DIFFERENCES ARE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROWING
DOUBT ON THE FORECAST SO I OPTED FOR A RATHER BLAND CHANCE OF
SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL THE LAST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST WILL BE A SUMMERY ONE FOR
THE FIRST DAYS OF SCHOOL IN MANY COMMUNITIES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE AIRMASS SITUATION
BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL... WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AT MIDDAY AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER. BRIEF TSTM VSBY
AND CIG IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND ANY
LINGERING STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
TONIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SWWD FROM ERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPLCHNS TNGT THRU THE
WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS/CIGS INTO THE FCST
WITH SOME LIGHT RA/DZ EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDS SUN THRU TUE. 

OUTLOOK... 
SAT...MVFR/IFR IN THE MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG/BR/-DZ/-RA...BCMG
VFR/MVFR IN THE AFTN WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA. 
SUN...LOW CIGS PSBL EARLY THEN BCMG VFR. 
MON-TUE...VFR NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT 
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL



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