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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 231647
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. CLEARING LINE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN NWRLY AS THE UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MIGHT EVEN BECOME CLEAR ENOUGH AT SOME LOCALS TO CATCH THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OCCURRING THIS EVENING.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END
TONIGHT...AS COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER
IN THE EAST...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST
IF SKIES MANAGE TO CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING ESEWD FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
H5 LOW WHICH FORMS AND DEEPENS OVER ONT/QUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE IT WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
ALOFT...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL GREATLY LIMIT PCPN AND CONFINE
MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN TIER ZONES. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
FOR SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE A 1-DAY SETBACK IN AN OTHERWISE MILDER
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. 

THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RISING/ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING HOW FAST A
BROAD MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH AND FRONTAL PCPN CAN WORK THEIR WAY
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WHILE THE OP GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT QUITE IN
SYNC WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH OUT OF THE PLAINS...THEY DO
AGREE ON PCPN ARRIVING NEXT WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON MONDAY AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT BUT
TUESDAY (POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY) LOOK UNSEASONABLY MILD AS LONG AS
THE AREA BREAKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IS NOT IMPACTED TO
HEAVILY BY FRONTAL PCPN. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ONE DAY OF HIGHS
10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN AT
NEAR RECORD DAILY MAXES WITH CLIMO DEPARTURES APPROACHING +20F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEARING SKIES
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE...WITH CLEAR SKIES
NOW AT KBFD. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS STILL WITH MVFR
CIGS. AS UPPER/SFC LOWS PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THINNING AND MOST TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
SUNSET.

IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR VERY CERTAINTY THIS
EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING EARLY FRI AM AT
KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL
COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST. 
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/GARTNER



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