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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 270734
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
234 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WESTERN BAND IS SHRIVELING UP...BUT EASTERN BAND IS STILL
PRODUCING MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES. HOWEVER...IT TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK UP/DIMINISH BY MORNING. ADDTNL ACCUMS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT BAND AND NEARBY - SO WILL HOLD THE ADVY FOR A BIT.
ANTICIPATE THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO JUST WIPE IT ALTOGETHER IN A FEW
HOURS IF RADAR TREND IS STEADY DOWNWARD AND ACCUMS ARE AS LIGHT AS
EXPECTED. WHILE SCT SHSN MAY BACK IN FROM THE EAST...THE
PROBABILITY OF THAT IS VERY LOW AND ANY ACCUMS WOULD BE JUST A
DUSTING EVEN IF THEY DO. IN COLLAB WITH PHI...HAVE DROPPED LANC CO
FROM THE ADVY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEFORMATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ALL BUT OVER TUESDAY
MORNING...WHILE NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DRAWS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL PA. 25 TO 35KT NE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
FELT AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS REALIZED IN WAKE OF STORM JUST
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING...ESP
EASTERN PA WHERE BUKFIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS. ENS
MEAN 925 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS TUE FROM NR 20F OVR THE N
MTNS...TO ARND 32F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM PA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTH...TOOK OUT SNOW SHOWERS FOR JST.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY WED MORNING.

MAIN CHANGE WAS WED NIGHT...DID LOWER TEMPS...BASED ON 12Z
MODEL RUNS...AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT 
WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. 

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES. 

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR



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