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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 280514
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
AVERAGING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR THE WATCH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. WE STILL
HAVE A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
KEEP THE WATCH RUNNING THROUGH 2AM TO DEAL WITH THE COUNTIES BEING
AFFECTED...BUT OVERALL WE ARE STABILIZING AND OTHER THAN SOME
HEAVY RAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD KEEP DIMINISHING.

FROM EARLIER...

VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FIRST ROUND OF DEEP
CONVECTION ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING OCCURRED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES...AND A SPOTTER REPORT OF WELL OVER 5 INCHES AT
SHERMANSDALE (RAIN GAGE TOPPED OUT AND OVERFLOWED AT 5 INCHES).
SPORADIC SEVERE REPORTED FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS PRELIMINARY UPPER
TROF ROTATES THROUGH...AND 40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY CREST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA.

MAIN SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS AND OHIO VALLEY IS NOW
APPROACHING WRN PA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO...AND CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PA. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO EASTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT BRINGING A RAPID
END TO THE SEVERE THREAT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS
IN THE AREA RIGHT INTO MONDAY. QUESTION REMAINS IF SOME SORT OF
DEFORMATION ZONE CAN FORM AND LINGER THE RAIN OVER NORTHERN AREAS
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. OPERATIONAL ECMWF SUGGESTS
THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO THINK ABOUT ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES AT THIS HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH MID SUMMER HEATING WILL HELP
SUPPORT AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. BUT WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST...THE SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE HIT AND MISS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

MONDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SOME 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS IN A WINTER SYSTEM...THE TIMING
OF EACH DISTURBANCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. TRIED TO
ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES BASED ON COLLABORATION AND INITIAL MODEL
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.

850 TEMPS APPROACHING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SUPPORT TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. 

MODELS ARE AGREEING BETTER ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADING LATER IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDS WILL PREDOMINATE...BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. THE THREAT OF GUSTY TSRA WILL
DIMINISH BY ARND 06Z...AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF PA.
FOCUS LATE TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS
OVR THE W MTNS...THE RESULT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES. 

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARND 12Z
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM SW TO NW. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS BTWN 30-40KTS
POSSIBLE...ESP OVR THE W MTNS. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOC WITH
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES. MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY OVR THE W MTNS...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTS IN MAINLY VFR
CONDS FURTHER EAST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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