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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 060035
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
735 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AS OF
00Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR...WILL CARRY LOW CHC
POPS FROM HARRISBURG SEWRD THRU ARND 01Z. 

IR LOOP SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NW PA AT 00Z...AND EXPECT
THIS CLEARING TREND TO SPREAD SE THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES
SYSTEM OVERSPREADS THE STATE. DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES
AND FRESH SNOW COVER SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES...AVERAGING ARND 10 BLW ZERO OVR THE NW MTNS...TO
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HOWEVER...A CALM WIND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ALLOW THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TO GET EVEN COLDER. LATEST RAP SUGGESTS A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NW COULD DIP AS LOW AS 15-20 BLW ZERO.
AT THIS POINT...WE ARE COUNTING ON THE WIND TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO
MINIMIZE WIND CHILLS...SO NO HEADLINES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY FRIDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO GATHER UNDER
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT
EVEN THERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MANAGE TO MIX WITH
ANY CLOUDS THAT FORM.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25F BLW NORMAL FRIDAY. 18Z GEFS
MEAN 925MB TEMPS ARND -14C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE
UPPER TEENS OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L-M20S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EWD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
ON SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN SW GRADIENT WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY SHOULD PREVAIL NEAR
THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A NON-DIURNAL TREND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS OCCURRING EARLY ACROSS THE NW MTNS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY TO SLOW RISE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TEMP CURVE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO
AROUND 10F OVER THE LOWER SQV. 

BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THERE ARE FEWER DIFFERENCES NOTED
OVERALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND DEPTH OF EACH IMPULSE. ONE IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A SURFACE
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SAT
AND THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE WILL
TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER SUN INTO EARLY
MON ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT. GIVEN THE FAST DEEPER LAYER WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE AMPLITUDE OF EACH IMPULSE
SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE LIMITED.
THEREFORE EXPECT OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES WITH 48 ACCUMS OF 1-2"
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW MTNS BY 12Z MON.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AGREEABLE/CONSISTENT WITH THE
MAIN THEMES OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
INCLUDE AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS
SRN CANADA...AND SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO MEXICO MEAN TROUGH AND
STRONG RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMAS. AS THE MEAN PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY FLATTER...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN A MAINLY
DRY PERIOD WITH STEADILY INCREASING/MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY-MID MARCH CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS IMPROVED QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS STORM SYSTEM BEGAN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. AT
00Z...CONDITIONS ARE VFR ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA.

A THICK MID-LEVEL DECK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD...
PERSISTING OVER THE SE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS IN. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR STRATOCU COMING
OFF OF LAKE ERIE MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KBFD WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT IF
IT REACHES THERE IT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WINDS THIS EVE WILL
START OUT AROUND 10 MPH...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

VFR PREVAILS ON FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 MPH.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

SUN-MON...MVFR WITH CHC -SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST. VFR SE.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY TONIGHT AT MANY
LOCATIONS. THE RECORD LOW FOR MARCH 6TH AT HARRISBURG IS 7F SET
BACK IN 1901 AND -1F AT WILLIAMSPORT SET IN 1978.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
CLIMATE...



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