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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 300550
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH INTO MY SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTIES WHILE LITTLE MORE THAN THIN CIRRUS PASS OVERHEAD
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY BUT
WITH THE GRADUAL ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS CONTINUING AS THE LAST OF
THE REALLY DRY WEATHER YIELDS TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND - ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS - WILL KEEP
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT. MINS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE
50S THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF SHORE ON SAT AND THE GULF OPENS UP.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL START TO BUILD UP IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
STATE AND TEMPS MAY GET HOT ENOUGH TO GROW SOME TALL CU OR EVEN
MAKE A SPRINKLE OR TWO OFF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. POPS ALMOST NOT
WORTH THE 15 OR 20 THAT HAVE BEEN PAINTED IN THERE. BUT ENOUGH OF
THE MODELS GENERATE A PIXEL OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AND SREF
POPS PRETTY HIGH TO JUST IGNORE. 8H TEMPS TRY TO RISE CLOSE TO 20C
NEAR PBZ AND ARE WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS ALL OF
THE STATE. THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT UNDER FULL POTENTIAL WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN THE S/E AND HIGH/MID
CLOUDS THICKENING UP ALL OVER THE AREA. MAXES IN THE M70S IN THE
ERN MTS AND UP TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BUT IT WILL BE MORE
MUGGY AND PROBABLY A LITTLE HAZY. SUMMER FINALLY SHOWS UP AT THE
END OF THE PARTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LONG TERM RANGE A SERIES OF LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOWS SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND AT TIMES...CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...WILL BE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN.

SATURDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF INTO
THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW FLATTENS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO ROTATE. THIS LOW SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION
AND SHOULD BRING AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE REGION SATURDAY 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROPAGATING UNDERNEATH THE PREDOMINANT LOW SHOULD BE THE
CATALYST THAT WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY...SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AND THE STRENGTH OF
THE SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ANY CONVECTION...STORMS COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

 BY EARLY MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HAVE LIFTED TO THE EAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE SHOULD BRING DIVERGENT FLOW ALONG
WITH DRIER AND WEAKER FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH...STEMMING FROM ANOTHER LOW...MOVES
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. THAT TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE TIMING BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES IS FAIRLY CLOSE UP TO THAT 
POINT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE IN POSITION AND STRENGTH. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THOUGH BOTH HAVE A WEAK
ZONAL FLOW OVER PA. THE EC TENDS TOWARDS A RIDGE...AND THE GFS
TENDS TOWARDS KEEPING A LOW OVER CANADA AND PA BEING ON THE
OUTSKIRTS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER SOLUTION THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PERSIST. THE QUESTION IS IF THERE IS STRONG ENOUGH DAYTIME
CONVECTION WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION.
HAVE GENERALLY LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF POPS AFTER MIDWEEK...THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE LONG TERM CURRENT SHOULD BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH WARM DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT LOWER CLDS MOVING NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING. AS OF 1 AM...LOWER CLDS JUST ENTERING FAR SOUTHERN
PA. THUS I MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LOWER 
CLDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING MAY OCCUR.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS ALONG THE E COAST WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY SAT MORNING...A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF BKN STRATUS TOWARDS DAWN. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DURING LATE AM OVR THE
CENTRAL MTNS FROM KJST NORTH THRU KAOO AND KUNV. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BE BTWN 3-5KFT. OTHER
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE KLNS...WHERE A NEARLY CALM WIND AND MCLEAR
SKIES MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG BTWN 09Z-12Z.

HIGH BASED STRATOCU MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PA INTO SAT AFTN.
FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF A FEW
LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS. VFR CONDS AND LGT WIND SHOULD
PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PM HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS EACH DAY...MAINLY VFR.
WED...TS/SHRA POSS AM...CLEARING POSS PM.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



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