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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 010020
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL.
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKY SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...BUT WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD
MOVING EAST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE STAYS TO THE WEST
OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THE WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY SUNRISE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT BEFORE 10 AM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES RIGHT UP THE OHIO RIVER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE OVER KPIT...AND ROLL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS A MUCH MILDER SOLUTION ON THE
WHOLE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIMPLE TEMPORARY MODEL WAGGLE
BUT RATHER A SUBSTANTIAL/DECISIVE SHIFT. 8H TEMPS GO WELL ABOVE
ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WARM LAYER PRETTY FAR INTO THE REST
OF THE AREA MON MORNING AS WELL. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TURN TO
RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION
IN P-TYPE TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. SLEET LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER...WITH A PRETTY
GOOD WARM LAYER. 

IN ANY CASE...THE MAIN CHANGE IS TO WARM IT UP ON THE GROUND AND
IN THE P-TYPE. THIS WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT IN THE CENTRAL ZONES...WITH ADVY OR PERHAPS
LESS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FAR SRN TIER. BUT...THE CHANCE FOR
ICING IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN ADVY FOR THEM. WILL HOLD
ON WITH 6-8INCHES IN THE CENTRAL STRIPE DUE TO THE GOOD QPF IN THE
PROGS DURING THE COLD TIME BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH...BUT GOOD P-GRAD
WINDS WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE RATHER WET SNOW AND THE GLAZE OF ICE AFTER
WILL PROBABLY CUT DOWN ON BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN IMPACTS FROM WINTER STORM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM REGION BY
MON NIGHT...BUT ARCTIC AIR PUSHING IN WILL BRING A VERY COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND BELOW
ZERO NORTH. THOUGH STRONGER WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL REMAIN TO DROP
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO FOR ALL...WITH NORTHERN MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS LIKELY NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY /-15F/ MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS COULD ADD TO STORM-RELATED
IMPACTS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD BUT GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER INTO
MIDWEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WED THAT MAY BRING LIGHT
ACCUMS TO THE NW HALF /BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS MORE RAPIDLY OVER
NEW ENGLAND/...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF MORE ARCTIC AIR
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU INTO FRI - INCLUDING A
RETURN OF BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.

TEMPS MODERATE A BIT...BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ON SAT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT
MOST TERMINALS AS SURFACE HIGH CEDES TO AN APPROACHING WINTER
STORM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. W/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND TURNING
TO THE SW THIS EVE.

MVFR CIGS SLIDE INTO THE NW MTNS BY LATE EVENING AS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH. CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS ARRIVAL OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. 

WIDESPREAD IFR IN STORE FOR SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS HEAVIER
SNOW IMPACTS THE NORTH...WITH A WINTRY MIX WORKING INTO THE KMDT-
KLNS AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICING. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE
S/SE AS LOW LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR DEVELOPING. LLWS POSS SUN NIGHT SE.

MON...REDUCED CONDS EARLY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE STORM
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. LLWS POSS MON AFT/NIGHT.

TUE...NO SIG WX.

WED...MVFR IN SHSN NW...VFR SE.

THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY 
FOR PAZ033>036-064>066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR 
PAZ024>028-056-057-059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...RXR



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