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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 231518
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1118 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER AIR. COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE AREA.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF COLD AIR STRATO-CU REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN MORE RESEMBLES WINTER THAN EARLY SPRING.
THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT TODAY OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THE CLEARING WILL TEND TO BE SLOW FROM CENTRAL
PA WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TAKES ITS TIME
WEAKENING.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...VARYING FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS TO KEEP THE BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -SHSN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERALL ACCUMS IF ANY WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

NW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASE WITHIN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS IN MANY
LOCATIONS TODAY...BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NW BREEZE WILL LEAD TO
QUITE COLD TEMPS FOR LATE APRIL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE BREEZE SHOULD LIMIT FROST TO THE PATCHY VARIETY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...SO NO FLAGS FOR NOW W/RESPECT TO FROST ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
A NORTH/SOUTH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE STATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING DECREASING WIND IN THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. 

HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND BY A SOLID 8-12 F COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST...AND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION HAS PRODUCED AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ISOLD SHRA OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND MIX OUT SLOWLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BFD/JST TO IMPROVE SLOWEST.

THE WIND HAS BEEN GUSTING 20-30KT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE 30-35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
/WITH UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MTNS/.

SUSTAINED WNW WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE 10-15
PERCENT RANGE. THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR TODAY /THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL STILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR FIRE GROWTH/. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...SINCE WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE MODERATELY STRONG
THERE...AND FINE FUEL MOISTURE AND RHS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
EVENING FOR PAZ051>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
FIRE WEATHER...



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