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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 292245
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO REGION. VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS EXPECTED...AFTERNOON CU WAS SUPPRESSED PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG...THE EVENING WILL BE QUIET. MINS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VALLEYS - WHICH SHOULD BE OF LESSER
COVERAGE THAN SAT MORNING. THEN...THE TEMPS RISE EVEN
BETTER...ADDING ANOTHER 3-4F ONTO SAT/S MAXES.

RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS STARTING TO GET PRESSED A LITTLE TO
THE EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND SLIGHT FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE. THUS...SUPPORT IN THE FORMS OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE ON SUNDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEEP
THEM MAINLY OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE AREA AS AXIS OF THE DYING
TROUGH. SREF POPS WAY TOO AMBITIOUS. POPS FROM MOS ARE CLOSER TO
BUT STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL
ALLOW FOR. WILL KEEP THEM 50 OR LESS NW AND CLOSE TO OR BELOW 20
IN THE SE HALF.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH 850HPA
TEMPS RUNNING 16-18C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
SFC TEMPS. THIS WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS LOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF INTERESTING FEATURES THAT BEAR WATCHING FOR 
LATE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH ARE FCST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL/GA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS MOISTURE DIFFUSES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S....SOME OF IT WILL GRADUALLY CRAWL INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT SOME MODELS BRING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT
THURS/FRI. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIR THAT WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WILL KEEP MENTION OF AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE LATTER
FEATURE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS LATE NEXT WEEK...TAPERING
BACK TEMPS A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE TO TAFS. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL TO THE
WEST IN OHIO. FEW MODELS SHOW THESE REACHING PA. FLYING WEST BE
AWARE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL OHIO.

LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG/HAZE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MVFR IN MANY SPOTS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR.
SHORT- LIVED AND SHOULD BURN OFF EARLY IN MORNING.

PREVIOUS....UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL TRY TO WEAKEN THE BIG RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS AND HIGHER TEMPS...THERE SHOULD WIDELY
SCT SHRA/TSRA FORM OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY AFTN. WITH
THE TIME OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY/COVERAGE NOT UNTIL AFTER THE END
OF THE TAF VALID PD...WHILE JUST BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD...WILL
THEN HINT AT THE SCT TSRA EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN WITH A PROB30 AT
KBFD FOR THE FAR END OF THE FCST PD. ALL BUT KMDT/KLNS DO HAVE A
20-30PCT CHC OF A SHRA SUNDAY AFTN. THE CONVECTION WILL BE FUELED
MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEAT AND SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. THEN THE LARGE RIDGE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD WILL JOIN UP WITH THE RIDGE ON THE EAST
COAST/WRN ATLANTIC...PINCHING OFF ANY TRACE OF THE TROUGH.
THUS...MAINLY HOT...HUMID WEATHER WITH LITTLE TO NO CHC OF SHOWERS
WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

OUTLOOK...

MON...MAINLY PM SHRA/TSRA POSS.
TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...GRUMM/DANGELO



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