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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 140023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
823 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. STEADY RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR WHICH WILL SETTLE IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS RAIN MOVING INTO SWRN PA...WITH OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRMING PRECIP IS FINALLY HITTING THE GROUND OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. 

MODEL THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR
ANY WINTRY PRECIP OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FALL FOR THE REGION.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TO CHASE DOWN NUISANCE FLOODING THAT CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO ICE CLOGGED STREAMS AND CREEKS BEGINNING TO SEE
THE ICE JAMS MOVE ABOUT. THESE ARE UNFORECASTABLE AND HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH USUALLY WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO LEAD TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE STEADY PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SAT
WITH THE DEEPER SFC LOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND FAST WRLY FLOW
OVERHEAD. UPSLOPE AND COLD ADVECTION ON SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT SHRA/SN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE WEST. QPF SEEMS VERY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SRN LAURELS AND AGAIN IN THE SERN COUNTIES.
LESS PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EVEN LESS - A
QUARTER TO AN HALF OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-80. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
FOR MORE INFO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER /BUT ONLY NEAR 
NORMAL AIR/ AS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ERN GLAKES 
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. PLENTY OF UPSLOPE/CAA STRATO CU AND 
SCATTERED -RA/SN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NW MTNS SAT 
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE BREAKS IN THE MORE SHALLOW STRATO CU OCCURS 
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. 

QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY A SFC RIDGE AS 
IT BUILDS EAST ACROSS PENN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH FAIR AND 
MUCH MILDER TEMPS /ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL/ MONDAY AS A 
STRENGTHENING/DOWNSLOPE WSWRLY LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS. MILD TEMPS WILL 
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT...INFLUENCED BY 
THE CONTINUED GUSTY WEST/SW WIND. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SE ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...PRODUCING ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN 
SHOWERS...THAT WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH 
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND WED 
/WITH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST PERIODS/ AS 1025-1030 
MB SFC HIGH SLIDES SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. 

GFS/GEFS INDICATE CONTINUED MAINLY DRY AND COOL COND1TIONS 
PERSISTING THUR-SAT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM...WHILE THE EC 
HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE/QUASI SPLIT FLOW PATTERN 
DEVELOPING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...AS DEEP COLD AIR 
HOLDS TOUGH TO OUR NE...AND WEST TO SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN 
BRANCH TRIES TO PUMP HIGHER PWAT AIR NE FROM THE LOWER MISS AND 
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH 06Z.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF REDUCED CONDITIONS IS
A LITTLE SHAKY GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN DEWPT DEPRESSIONS BUT ONCE
RAIN BEGINS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD SATURATE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WIND
SHIFT FROM 140-200 TO 250-290 SHOULD SPELL IMPROVEMENT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS JST/BFD. LOW CIGS
AND OCNL -RA/SN SHOWERS WILL LKLY PLAGUE THESE SITES INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS NW FLOW INCREASES AND COLD AIR DEEPENS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF STG LOW PRES MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPENDED NORTHWARD TO THE PA/NY BORDER AS
RAINFALL COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL SNOW MELT MAY LEAD TO SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SWRN CORNER OF THE CWA/LAUREL HIGHLANDS WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN IS FORECAST. A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH.

ALSO CONTINUING IS THE THREAT OF ICE JAMS AS MANY OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS ARE FULL OF ICE AND THE EXPECTED RAIN MAY BE TOO MUCH TO
KEEP THEM IN THEIR BANKS.

A SECOND BULLSEYE OF POSSIBLE ONE INCH RAINFALL IS FORESEEN IN
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. WHILE THE QPF IS SIMILAR TO THAT
EXPECTED IN THE LAURELS...THERE IS LESS/NO SNOW LEFT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALSO...THERE IS LESS ICE ON THE SMALLER WATERWAYS IN
THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF
THE TIME THESE PAST 4 DAYS HAVE MELTED MUCH OF THE ICE ON THE
SMALLER CREEKS. HOWEVER...STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTH-
EASTERN PA ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A FLOOD WATCH FOR A WIDER
AREA...PERHAPS EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF SRN PA. BUT FOR NOW WILL
MENTION MINOR FLOOD RISK IN THE HWO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
HYDROLOGY...GARTNER/ROSS



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