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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 010609
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

LOWERED POPS TO FIT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE LARGE
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NEW ENG COASTAL WATERS DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HARD TO FIND A DISCERNIBLE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP
IN THE MOIST WSW FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL LOOPS SHOW THE BIGGEST
CONCENTRATION OF MAINLY DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OFF TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MAKE SERN PA MOST LIKELY TO
GET WET...AND EVEN THERE THE CHANCES SHOULD BE PRETTY SMALL
THROUGH MORNING.

FROM EARLIER...

SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...FEATURING PW BETWEEN 1.75" AND 2.00"
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DROPS OFF TO 1.6" VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL REACH N CENTRAL MARYLAND BY 12Z MON...CONTINUING
SHOWER AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THERE.

OVERALL...MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
LOWER SUSQ BUT WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THAT REGION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING AND AVAILABILITY OF
2.00" PW FROM THE DEL MARVA REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT
REGION. AN ISOLATED SOMEBODY IN THOSE AREAS CAN SEE A FEW OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT CENTRAL PA APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID IT ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ON MONDAY. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING...SCT SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT THOUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE 3-5F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH 
THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF RAIN TO 
THE REGION...WITH SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOWING UP TO ONE INCH OF 
PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING A 
FEW DAYS OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST 
LATE IN THE WEEK...MORE HUMID FLOW AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL 
RETURN TO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD 
CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS ON A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA 
SATURDAY BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE 
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF 
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON 
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...KEEPING HIGH 
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY 
SEPTEMBER THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE PART OF CENTRAL PA AND
NW OF UNV.

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS
FOG AND LOW CIGS FORM.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE 
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT 
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE
THIS SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD 
BORDER.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS BEST MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED TO THE
EAST AND FOCUS IS ALONG A SFC TROUGH JUST TO THE SE OF THE
AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO STAY RIGHT THERE. LNS MAY BE DEALING
WITH SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR - NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS - AND LIGHT
WIND...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORM EARLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE PAST SUNRISE. HAVE BROUGHT MANY TERMINALS
DOWN TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. BFD ALREADY THERE...AND WHILE IT MAY
CLEAR THERE...IT WILL ONLY LEAD TO FOG. A LITTLE DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ALSO POSS IN THE
SRN TERMINALS FROM MID-DAY AND ON...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH ALONG THAT BOUNDARY. WILL JUST GO WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY ON MONDAY.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...COLBERT
LONG TERM...COLBERT
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN



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