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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220540
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
140 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY CREATE ENOUGH
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL SLOWLY DRY THINGS OUT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BUT UNTIL THEN THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AND SLOW MOVING
WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW LONE SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG WERE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
20-30 POPS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN MTNS AND EAST OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STNRY FRONT NEAR THE NY
BORDER...AND A BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE ENDLESS MTNS OF
NERN PENN...SOUTH TO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

VSBYS IN THE PATCHY FOG WILL BE GENERALLY 1/2SM OR SLIGHTLY
GREATER...THANKS TO THE PERIODS OF CLOUDS...AND A LIGHT SSWRLY
BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PENN /WHERE MOST OF YESTERDAY/S
RAIN FELL/.

A VERY NARROW...FEW DEG F SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREAD WILL MEAN LOW TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS
COULD DIP INTO THE U50S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE THE LAST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. THE SREF
AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEDGE OF RELATIVELY LOW PW IMPLYING THE
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO REWORK ITSELF INTO THE REGION.

THE SREF AND NAM ARE SLOW TO BRING CAPE OF ANY NOTE BACK INTO THE
REGION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AS FORECAST...THE CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN WE HAD YESTERDAY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS ARE NOT AS WET AND WANT TO FOCUS THE
RAINFALL AND MORE SIGNFICANT RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

KEPT HIGHER POPS IN SOUTH AND WEST AND FOCUSED POPS LATER IN DAY.
WITH THE SURGING HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND LOWER PW HEADED OUR WAY
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SREF IS GETTING REALLY
OPTIMISTIC FOR RIDGING COMING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. POPS SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER. SREF NOW THINKS OUR PW
VALUES DROP TO AT LEAST NORMAL SATURDAY AND THE BOUNDARY BEGINS A
MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD SHIFT. UPDATED FULL LONGER TERM
FORECASTS WILL LIKELY TEND FOR A DRIER DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HELP IS ON THE WAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE NW AND LOWER PW
VALUES.

PREVIOUS: CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO WORK SWRD THRU CENTRAL
PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE APPALACHIANS COULD PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD STAY QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE BUILD AND TILT OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW MOVING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WX
THRU MOST OF THE EXTENDED FCST.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL 
DRIFT SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR AND BRIGHTER WX TO 
CENTRAL PA. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND A BIT ON 
SUNDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BLW NORMAL.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD PERSIST...AS THE MID
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID NEXT WEEK THE FCST
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN MED
RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. GEFS KEEPS RIDGE AND FAIR WX GOING
THRU WED...WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH SE INTO THE REGION...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OFF WITH
THEIR TIMING. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHC OF TSRA WED INTO THURSDAY. WHAT
APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT THE COOL TEMPS OF THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS
COOL AIR MASS MODIFIES UNDER STILL STRONG AUGUST SUN. GEFS AND EC
ENS 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW IN FAR EASTERN PA AND NJ.

A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NW PA...MOST LIKELY
PICKING UP A LITTLE MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.
EXPECT A LOT OF VARIATION IN CONDITIONS.

PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THUS WENT WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR FRIDAY AFT 16Z.
 
PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR EARLYY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD TOWARD PA.

OUTLOOK... 
FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AND 
BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. 
SUN-TUE...AM LOW CIGS PSBL. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT 
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



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