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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 210357
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1157 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL A SHORT WAVE
BRINGS A FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. A
SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THURSDAY AHEAD OF A ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT THIS POINT WITH BIG LOW WELL TO THE SE
AND UPSTREAM MOISTURE PRETTY FAR AWAY. THEREFORE THE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SLACKENING WIND SHOULDALLOW THE CURRENTLY MILD
50-SOMETHING TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO COOL OFF TO GOING LOWS. FROST
ADVY WILL BE HELD - AS THE SERN SITES LIKE KTHV AND KLNS ARE
ALREADY COOLER THAN MANY OTHER PLACES.

730 PM...
FORECAST HOPPING ALONG NICELY. ALL IS AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED.

PREV...
FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NEW
ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT SFC WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED BUT DECREASING AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER. NEARLY IDEAL COOLING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST AREAS TO
RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY...WHICH 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE.
THE AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACYHING FRONT...WHICH ISN'T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SHOWERS ON TUE...QPF MAINLY .25 
INCHES OR LESS.

SOME CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER TUE NIGHT AND EARLY
WED...GIVEN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DROPPING SE.

NICE DAY ON THU...SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

DID SLOW SHOWERS DOWN FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME CHC OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY...AS TRIPLE POINT COMES CLOSE.
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS ON SAT.

DID CUT SHOWERS OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE...EC
NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL PA THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS AT IPT ARE STILL GUSTY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS
THE NIGHT CONTINUES. NEAR CALM WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS THE SFC DECOUPLES. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK BACK UP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

THU...VFR

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CERU/RXR



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