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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220330
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND CROSS THE COMMONWEALTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
COMMONWEALTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION OVR THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AT
01Z SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES.
EVENING IR LOOP HAS SHOWN CRUMBLING CU AFTER SUNSET AND EXPECT
TRANQUIL AND MUGGY CONDS FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A NEARLY CALM
WIND...CLEARING SKY AND LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ALL POINT TOWARD
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT. LATEST NAM/RAP BOTH INDICATE SFC RH
VALUES NR 100 PCT BY DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE L/M60S
OVR NEARLY ALL THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
FROM THE GRT LKS. HIGHS TODAY WERE IN THE M/U80S UPSTREAM OVR
MICHIGAN AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS IN THE CENTRAL PA VALLEYS
TUESDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL LIKELY
ONLY REACH THE L80S. 

DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPES BY AFTN...YIELDING
JUST A FEW PULSE-TYPE SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. BEST CHC SHOULD
BE ALONG SOUTHERN PA...WHILE SURGING MID LVL TEMPS OVR NW PA MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION UP THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WILL LEAD TO LONG WAVE
TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE STRENGTHENED AT TIMES BY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE STRONGER JET STREAM FLOW ACROSS CANADA. SOUTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THIS LOW/TROF WILL AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD
STRENGTHENING THE TROFFING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S./OUR
REGION. TODAYS TREND OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER TROFFING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...DEVELOPING AN ALMOST FULL LATITUDE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN CANADA LOW SWD TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE TO
EXPAND AND PROLONG THE CHANCES FOR PCPN THIS WEEKEND.

GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT AND INCREASED
CHANGES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARD PA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AND SHOW A SECOND...POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE TREND OF STRONGER TROUGHING MENTIONED ABOVE HAS LEAD
TO SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE DAILY
PROGS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF PA SUNDAY
MORNING...A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY. HAVE THUS ADJUSTED
POPS/TIME TO SUIT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
STATE TIL MONDAY AT THIS POINT...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME FRAME
HOWEVER...A LOT WILL LIKELY CHANGE BEFORE WE REACH NEXT WEEKEND. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WARMING
TREND WHICH BEGAN TODAY...WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH WED...WHEN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REACH THEIR PEEK FOR THE WEEK IN THE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST AREAS CLEAR NOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH.

03Z TAFS ADJUSTED SOME.

MUCH OF LAST NIGHT FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS.

THE MAIN ISSUE WAS THE LOWER CLDS THAT CAME IN
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE...AND TOOK SEVERAL HOURS
TO BURN...MIX OUT. WINDS ALOFT NEARLY NIL.

FOR TONIGHT...WENT WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER CLDS...GIVEN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS NOW AND LIGHT WINDS.

EXPECT THINGS TO IMPROVE A LITTLE FASTER ON TUESDAY...AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SW.

OUTLOOK... 

WED-THU...SLOW NW-SE MOVG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING REDUCED
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN



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