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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220009
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
809 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A POTENT
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND PROVIDE GENERALLY
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

THE COLD FRONT IS JUST WEST OF STATE COLLEGE AS OF 8 PM WITH A
COUPLE OF SMALL LINES/AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE NWRN MOUNTAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH/COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW THAT IS MOVING DOWN THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENIES...NUMEROUS UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS AS COLD AIR ALOFT
SLIDES THROUGH.

A GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER WESTERN TERRAIN. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY
FORM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WRN MTNS...TO
THE LOWER AND MID 50S IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...

TYPICAL POST-FRONTAL SET-UP TOMORROW AS THE RESIDUAL AND LAKE
MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS COUPLED WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT WILL GENERATE INSTABILITY AND SHOULD CAUSE SCT SHRA FOR THE
NWRN THIRD OF THE AREA...AND OVER THE LAURELS...THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. 8H TEMPS DIP TO JUST ABOVE ZERO MONDAY
MORNING AND STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND MAY BE LIMITED TO THE M50S IN
THE MTNS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL
PA...AND IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...


THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT...AND
THE LARGE SFC SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TREK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN USHERING IN A LONG TERM PERIOD
OF DRY AND FAIR WEATHER. IS BEGINNING AND IT SORT OF PARKS ITSELF
OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH +2 TO +3 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL
MSLP ANOMALIES BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING A BLOCKING 500 HPA ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A MASSIVE 500 HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OF +2 TO +3
SIGMA DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DO WELL FORECASTING ANTICYCLONES SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A CONSENSUS ON THE FAIR WEATHER FORECAST
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE REGION EACH MORNING ONCE THE BIG HIGH TAKES HOLD....AND
CONTINUING DAILY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT MASSIVE HIGH SHOULD
CONTINUE THE DRY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EVENING UPDATE ACCOUNTS FOR LOCALIZED MVFR AND VSBYS...FAST-
MOVING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH 03Z.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED POOL OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS...LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN AND WRN MTNS OF PENN WITH IFR CIGS /AND PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS/ IN THE 00Z-15Z MONDAY PERIOD OCCURRING FROM KBFD...TO
KFIG AND KJST.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION OF THE STATE...
PERIODS OF BKN STRATO CU WILL BE IN THE LOW- END VFR TO UPPER END
MVFR CATEGORY.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG.

OUTLOOK...
MON...AM LOW CIGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS. 
TUE...AM FOG POSS W MTNS. 
WED...AM FOG POSS...MAINLY NORTHERN PA. 
THU AND FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/TYBURSKI



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