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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 290533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
AND BRING FAIR...DRY WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND...TRIGGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC OBS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GLAKS. ONLY
SIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOW THICK AND WIDESPREAD IT BECOMES THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME. DRY AIR WILL FIGHT FOG FORMATION IN ALL
BUT THE DEEPEST DARKEST VALLEYS WHERE TEMPS COULD DROP TO 40F BY 6
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY AS
THE SUN WORKS ON IT. BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND WILL MAKE IT A
WONDERFUL LATE-SUMMER DAY. TEMPS SHOULD BACK UP TO THURS MAXES
AND EVEN ADD A FEW DEGS ON - ESP IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE MIDWEST
AND FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS FCST TO PREVAIL OVER THE EAST SUPPORTED BY
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SHOULD ANCHOR OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO CENTER OVER UPSTATE NY AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE BIG FORECAST QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS VARY ON
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE. THE GFS/NAM PROPAGATES IT
FASTER...WHERE THE EC SLOWS THE TIMING DOWN...AND HAS A MORE ZONAL
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EVEN GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SPURRED
ON BY A WARMING TREND WITH MAX TEMPS 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPARK ALONG A LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND IN
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST MOISTURE
FLUX SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF PA.

THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS ROTATING LOW WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS
AND EC IN THE LONG RANGE ARE ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS HAS FAR MORE
AMPLITUDE IN THE WAVES...WITH DEEPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
PERIODICALLY...WHERE THE EC KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS DAILY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO LARGE CHANGES MADE TO 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT
WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN
THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. CLIMATOLOGY AND
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST KBFD IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR/LIFR
VSBYS BTWN 07Z-12Z...WHILE KAOO/KUNV/KIPT COULD POTENTIALLY
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF DIP TO IFR ARND DAWN. THE REMAINING CENTRAL PA
AIRFIELDS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS FRI
AM...DUE TO A PERSISTENT BREEZE AT KMDT AND KLNS AND DUE TO THE
RIDGETOP LOCATION OF KJST.

ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AS HIGH PRES AND 
A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVR THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...EARLY AM FOG POSS AT KLNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.
SUN-TUE...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN



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