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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 221655
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED EAST OF SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE
WRAPPING NWWD BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW
SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY
EITHER THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z
GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER
NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND
UPPER LOW SHOULD SLIDE EAST A BIT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A BIT.

ADDITIONALLY...WIDESPREAD LOWERED CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS N-NERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. CHANGES WILL BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW CENTER LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CIGS WILL BE LOWER OVER
WRN MNTS...IFR AT KJST AND KBFD...AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELD...LEADING TO OCCASIONAL DIPS IN VSBY INTO MVFR
TERRITORY.


OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GARTNER
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER



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