Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
State College, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KCTP 021829
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA
LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE
THIS WEEK...THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ACTIVITY STARTING TO PICK UP OFF TO OUR WEST AS ONE SHORTWAVE
SLIDES FROM E OH INTO W PA WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SCT
TSTMS...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY SECOND SHORTWAVE /OVER W LAKE ERIE/
THAT WILL HELP PUSH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
FLOW /WINDS 40-50 KTS AT 500MB/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPS PEAKING
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH SOME EXTRA
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING.

ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO NW MTNS AROUND 3 PM...AND THEN
WORK ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA AS A STRENGTHENING LINE OF
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP ON SOUTHERN END OF THE LINE AS IT EDGES PAST THE EDGE OF
THE CLOUD LINE INTO CENTRAL PA. SPC PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL PA
/WITH EXCEPTION OF LOWER SUSQ VALLEY/ IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WGUSTS.

HIGHS TODAY LIKELY ABOUT REACHED IN THE WEST WHERE TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. FURTHER EAST...WE COULD ADD A FEW
MORE DEGREES ONTO CURRENT READINGS WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...CLOSEST TO TRACK OF MID LVL SHORTWAVE. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC
SHOWER THREAT WILL PASS SE OF THE REGION AROUND 03Z. CLEARING
SKIES...A LGT WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE OVR THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...SUPPLYING MSUNNY AND WARM CONDS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR
15C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M70S NW MTNS TO THE M80S
IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MODERATE-INTENSITY SFC CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD 
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NRN QUEBEC THU THRU 
SAT. ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR PCPN HEADING INTO 
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEWD FRONTAL 
PROGRESSION. A SLOWER TREND MAY BE EMERGING IN THE 12Z GFS/GEFS WITH 
ITS FRONTAL ZONE ALIGNING CLOSER WITH THE ECMWF/GEM BY 00Z SUN. MAX 
POPS SHIFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE CWA FROM 00Z SAT TO 00Z SUN. AHEAD 
OF CDFRONT...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH MEAN H85 TEMPS 
+18-20C SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS 85-90F.

THE NEXT QUESTION CONCERNS HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT CLEARS SRN PA ON 
SUNDAY WITH MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT HANGS
BACK ALONG THE APPLCHNS/MID-ATLC PIEDMONT...AS ENERGY IS SHEARED
NEWD THRU THE NRN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AND FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE WESTERLY. MEAN PW FIELDS SHOW DRIER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS AND POPS TO TREND LOWER DURING THE
LATER PERIODS. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 18Z. BUT SOME
RESTRICTIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MTNS...AS A SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASING
MID LEVEL FLOW TRIGGERS A LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MOST WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PA /GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80/ WITH
A MORE SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO POSS FURTHER SOUTH. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS AT AIRFIELDS AS THEY PASS THROUGH. 

STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE WESTERN HALF BY 22-24Z AND THE EAST BY
01-03Z. THEN CLEARING SKIES...A LIGHT WIND AND WET GROUND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... 
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. 
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. 
SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/RXR
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy