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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 152339
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
739 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST DURING THE
MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY. THIS LOW...WILL COMBINE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO NORTHERN PENN OVERNIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY OVER SOUTHERN PENN. THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS QUICKLY THICKENING UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION 
EARLY THIS EVENING.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NOSE OF A SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS...SWRLY
LLJ WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...WHILE
BANDS OF 850-700 MB FGEN FORCING /BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 115 KT JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/ MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NRN PENN. BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE THE 15Z SREF AND 12/18Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS INDICATE
BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW 3-4 TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS NRN PENN BY
15Z MONDAY. EC ENSEMBLES ALSO IMPLY QUITE A SHARP GRADIENT IN POPS
BETWEEN 1-80 AND I-70/76.

HOURLY AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS LOOK IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH MINS
RANGING FROM 45-50F ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S ELSEWHERE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA VERY FAST TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY LIGHT PRECIP AFTER 12Z TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ACROSS THE REGION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ MAINSTEM. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY NOON IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME
BRIEFLY BKN...FLAT STRATO CU ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN.

HEIGHTS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY. SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON.

WIND WILL LIKELY KICK UP SOME.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH TUE NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS HAVE BFD
BELOW 32. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ALONG WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LOW DEWPOINTS/PW VALUES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FROST ETC. STILL A WAYS OUT...LATER SHIFTS CAN
MONITOR AND ISSUE FLAGS AS NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRIER COOLER
NORTHWEST FLOW IN LOWER LEVELS. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EARLY...BUT
CENTRAL PA SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE OVERALL. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOUT 5F BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS OVER QUEBEC WED NIGHT/THU...PUSHING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD PA ON THU. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES SOUTHWARD...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
COVER ALONG WITH JUST A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE. NORTHERN PA WILL
GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. 

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO A 1030MB
HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI...BRINGING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
LIKELY THU NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRI
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.

RETURN FLOW BEGINS WEAKLY FRI NIGHT...TAKING A LITTLE OF THE BITE
OUT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS /THOUGH STILL CHILLY WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE 40S/. BUT THIS WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS SAT INTO SUN WILL BE 5-8F WARMER THAN FRI...WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 80F IN THE SE. LOWS WILL BE NOTICABLY MILDER AS WELL
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PLENTY
OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING LARGE
DIFFERENCES ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGING A SECOND WAVE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A STUBBORN CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HOLD ON TO
MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO MON ALONG WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR
AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AT BFD. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON 
TUESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. 
IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUE.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS.

OUTLOOK...

WED-SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
LONG TERM...RXR 
AVIATION...MARTIN/GARTNER



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