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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220710
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER VA AT 06Z. THE
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE VA COAST AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z NAM
IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL WITH OCNL TS/LTG HAS
BEEN PIVOTING NWWD TWD THE RT 30 CORRIDOR. THIS FAIRLY ORGANIZED
BAND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
NRN DELMARVA...AND MAY PRODUCE SOME 0.50"+ AMTS OVER EXTREME SERN
YORK AND LANCASTER COS. WILL USE THE HRRR AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS
AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY...WHICH STILL FAVORS THE SERN
1/3 OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT
WITH POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE
COOL AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM BOTTOMING
OUT OFF THE NJ COAST ON THU AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH SAT.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW NICE AGREEMENT AS WELL AS SOLID
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO OVERALL
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THIS STACKED LOW WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE OF
CHILLY WRAP-AROUND RAINS IN THE FCST POSSIBLY INTO
FRI...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE STORM LIFTS OUT AND IF A SHORTWAVE
WRAPPING AROUND IT EDGES BACK INTO NE PA ON FRI. THE IMPETUS TO
KICK STORM NE LIES UPSTREAM WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY PROJECTED TO DIG SEWD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT NGT.

PROGRESSIVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH SUN AND MON...BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO START THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO
BRING A PUSH OF WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION AS FLOW TURNS SW
AHEAD OF A WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NATIONS MIDSECTION. LOW LIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES /TRACKING TO OUR NW/ MON-TUE WITH MILDER
TEMPS IN CENTRAL PA. PUSH BEHIND THE WAVE WILL NUDGE A COOL FRONT
WITH LIMITED SUPPORT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH GENERAL COOLING TREND
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE



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