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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 242008
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
308 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO CENTRAL PA
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE
SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A PARADE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE
WINTRY PATTERN OVER CENTRAL PA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. 

AS OUR EARLY WEEKEND STORM CONTINUES TO SCOOT OFFSHORE...A WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMS INTO THE WEST TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THE 5H SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED THIS THIS UPPER TROF
WILL BE ALIGNED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE DEL MARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHILE A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROF DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. 

PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE -SHSN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WITH A SMALL ACCUM OF AN INCH OR LESS. LATE
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE...CAUSING -SHSN TO
TAPER OFF OVR THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE LAURELS WILL KEEP THE -SHSN GOING DOWN THERE. A DOWNSLOPING
WEST WIND SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MTNS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATOCU SHOULD HOLD READINGS UP TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT'S THE LAURELS MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED
IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT. 
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT 
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED 
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE 
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRAIDENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING
THE SAME PATH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10-15
MPH IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT...WITH 850MB WINDS
INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS OVER THE SW HALF OF CWA...SO ADDED MENTION
OF LLWS THERE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ALSO SPAWN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT IN SAME
AREA. COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS OF
MVFR CIGS...WHILE SOUTHEAST REMAINS VFR. 

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND OVERSPREADING ALL OF
CENTRAL PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY AT NIGHT.

MON...AM SNOW WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY.

TUE...SOME SNOW LIKELY TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST AND EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...MORE SNOW EXPECTED WITH NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/RXR



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