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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 240607
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE
OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LOW STRATUS PILING UP ON THE LAURELS AND INTO WESTERN WARREN CO.
THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST DO SEEM TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE
SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS
THROUGH SUNRISE. MINS MAY BE HELD UP IN THE FAR WEST AND EAST DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. SUNLIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO
MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO
THE EAST. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NEARING AND COULD DIM THE SUN AFTER
THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS
IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE
INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING
THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE
IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL
OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE
DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S. 

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A
MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING
WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT
APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST
BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES.

MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY
PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES
LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR
PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS.

ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN
MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE
DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP
DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F.

THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING
THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH...
BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE
ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA.

QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT
FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS
POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF
STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS
PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W
MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD
ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU
DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN.

DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



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