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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 230052
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
852 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...ENDING
ANY LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY TO MID
EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE COMMONWEALTH LATER 
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CENTRAL PA
THIS EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSRA. THE TSRA ARE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...WHERE 20Z SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPES ARND 500 J/KG.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SMALL
HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ARND JOHNSTOWN AND RAP DATA SHOWS FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS BTWN 1-3KM...WHICH COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC IN
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION SHOULD
PASS EAST OF THE CWA ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.

MUCH COLDER AIR DIVES INTO WEST CENTRAL PA BY 00Z WED...WITH 850
MB READINGS PLUNGING BELOW ZERO. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WNW FLOW WILL
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HELP DIRECT AN ABNORMALLY COOL
CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

WELL ALIGNED NW FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO
AROUND -3 TO -4C TONIGHT TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NW
MTNS AND LAURELS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT COATING POSSIBLE
AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY AOA 1500 FT MSL. A FEW FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY SPILL OFF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO BETWEEN 40-45F THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS /MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS/...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. VRBL AMOUNTS OF STRATO CU WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY /IN THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
THE SE/ WILL AVG 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL KEEP THIS SHORT...WATCHING LOW TOPPED STORMS ON RADAR.
SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTED SW OF OUR AREA.

ANYWAY...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM RECENT DAYS.

AIRMASS QUITE COLD FOR WED...THUS DID LOWER TEMPS WED
NIGHT SOME.

LOOKING AT A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY ON THU...AS A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.

STILL LOOKING AT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DID NOT ADD THUNDER AT THIS POINT...AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOOKS
TO BE JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPS AT 850 MB.

DID CUT BACK ON SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN NW
FLOW AND SPREAD IN MODELS.

WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...DID LOWER TEMPS SOME MONDAY...GIVEN THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE TO SE FLOW.

LARGE CUTOFF TO THE SW NEXT WEEK WITH A REX BLOCK.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS LATE TUE. POTENTIAL FOR
A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING WILL EXIT THE
STATE BY MIDNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS/TSRA ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH
BRIEF WIND GUSTS HAVE EXITED MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA...BUT A FEW
WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHRA FROM KBFD TO KJST. SPEED OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS /15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS/ COULD ALSO
BE A CONCERN TO FLYING INTERESTS.

MVFR/IFR CONTINUES INTO WED IN WEST AND NORTH...WITH A BREEZY NW
WIND. 

OUTLOOK...

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NW
WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI-SAT...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS DROP TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WNW
WINDS OF 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG 
WITH FINE FUEL MOISTURES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGIT PERCENTILES. 
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH BOF OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING NWS
OFFICES...HAVE ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 15Z WED TO 00Z THU
FROM BEDFORD COUNTY EASTWARD TO LANCASTER COUNTY AND NORTHWARD 
TO PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
EVENING FOR PAZ034>036-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/GARTNER
FIRE WEATHER...DEVOIR



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