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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
529 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA
ALONG WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
MIGRATE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEAR-TO-SHORT RANGE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MYRIAD OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE
MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER SERN VA AT
09Z. THE MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE TRACKING OFF THE TIDEWATER AND
DELMARVA BY 18Z THEN TURNING NWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WRAPPING NWWD
BACK TOWARD LONG ISLAND BY 23/12Z. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK WHICH IS LKLY BEST REPRESENTED BY EITHER THE 00Z
GEFS/21Z SREF OR A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS/ECMWF. THE
00Z NAM IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE THIS CLUSTER NEAR CAPE COD.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE FAR SERN ZONES THIS MORNING WHERE AN AXIS OF MOD RAFL ALONG/N
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR PIVOTS NWWD INTO SE PA. WILL USE THE HRRR
AND BLEND OF MODEL QPFS AS A GUIDE FOR POPS FOR LATER TODAY WHICH
STILL FAVORS THE SERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH WRAP-AROUND TYPE
PCPN. ELSEWHERE...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DZ WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH
POP GRADIENT GENERALLY DECREASING FROM SE TO NW. IT WILL BE COOL
AND RAW DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE ON DAY 2 OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS
AND SPLITS THROUGH THE MS VLY. THE MODELS SHOW THE SRN BRANCH WAVE
APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI WITH THE GFS BEING FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EC. THE MAIN WRAP-AROUND PCPN AREA
SHOULD SHIFT INTO NERN PA ON BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM. THURS WILL BE ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS ABOUT 5F BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.
POPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
PORTIONS OF SRN/SWRN PA STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW INITIALLY IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL UNRAVEL
THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT LIFTS NWD ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX TRANSITION TOWARD A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT IS STILL FASTER AND WEAKER THAN
ITS NON-NCEP COUNTERPARTS - ECMWF AND CMC. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FROPA SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH THE
BULK OF PCPN /LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS/ WITH THIS SYSTEM
LKLY OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW. MODEL AND ENSEMBLES CONSENSUS SHOWS RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. DESPITE A SETBACK ON SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM
RANGE TEMPS SHOULD TREND TO THE UPSIDE AND GENERALLY AVG NEAR TO
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FANTASTIC SCENE ON RADAR OVER THE SE WHERE ELEMENTS MOVING N-S
UNDERNEATH THE BULK OF THE RETURNS WHICH ARE SLIDING S-N IN FROM
MD/DE. THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE IN THE SE AND AT BFD. JST ALREADY IN THE SOUP.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY HIGHER CIGS AT UNV/AOO MAY STAY THERE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WILL HOLD MORE PESSIMISTIC 1KFT CIG AT IPT AS
THICKER MSTR EVIDENT UPSTREAM IN NE PA/ERN NY. LIGHTNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO IPT AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN THE FIRST TWO HRS OF THE
FCST.

SFC LOW IS GOING TO MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE AND UPPER LOW SHOULD
SLIDE EAST A BIT AS THE TAF PERIOD PROGRESSES. THUS...THE THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SHOWERS BACK
INTO SERN PA AND ALSO INTO THE NERN MTNS/POCONOS. SOME DRYING IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN...BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE CLOUDS CAN BREAK A
BIT.

OUTLOOK...

THU-FRI...LOW CIGS POSS NRN MTNS...MAINLY AT NIGHT/EARLY AM. SHRA
POSS ERN THIRD.

SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE



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