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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 261601
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1101 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES
UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TO MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 10AM /15Z/...CENTER OF DEEPENING STORM NEAR MOREHEAD CITY NC.
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NEAR TERM TRACK
WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH TAKING IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AND
THEN JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY 18Z...AND LEANING A BIT
FURTHER EASTWARD OFF THE NJ COASTLINE AT 00Z THU.

MAIN THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE DEEPENING
AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON ITS WAY TOWARD TAKING ON A STRONG
NEG TILT AS IT EJECTS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

STRONG UPPER JET /300MB SPEEDS >150KTS/ SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS
PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SNOWS ONGOING...WITH
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS WELL. MODELS SHOW STRONG
LAYERED FRONTOGENTIC FORCING UNDER THIS JET ENTRANCE REGION...WITH
THE STRONGEST FORCING EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA EAST AND NORTHEAST.

PRECIP DID START OUT AS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IN THE LOWER
SUSQ BEFORE QUICK EVAPORATIVE COOLING BROUGHT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY MID MORNING. ON THE NW EDGE OF PRECIP BAND...HEAVIER SNOW
DEVELOPED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR RECEIVING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
OVER JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MTNS. 

ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THAT BAND WILL BE THE WESTERN EXTEND OF
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AS COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW SHIFTING
E/NE. THOUGH SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WEST...RAPID ACCUM RATES LIKE WE/VE SEEN OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
/1-3 INCHES PER HOUR/ WILL DROP OFF NOTICABLY. FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
SNOWS OVER NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE EASTERN HALF OF CWA...ESP IN THE
CORRIDOR THAT HIGHEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FORECAST LEADING UP TO THE
EVENT. A BAND OF 6 TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 9-10 INCHES STILL LOOKS
REALISTIC...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NW AND SE OF THAT BAND /IN
PLACES LIKE STATE COLLEGE AND HARRISBURG METRO/.

ACTIVITY STARTS TO TAPER OFF FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. AN
OLD RULE OF THUMB HAS PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY ONCE THE SURFACE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE SO BY EVENING MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE STORM.

TEMPS TODAY HAVE/WILL FALL OFF A BIT AS PRECIP BEGINS..THEN STAY
PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HI RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BEFORE WHEN STORMS REACH THEN EXCEED OUR LATITUDE.
NOT MUCH MORE THAN THE USUAL LEFT-OVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IT WILL ONLY BE A TAD BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY. 

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF A
BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD. EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING AS RAIN BANDS MOVE IN...AND
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW HAS BEGUN AT JST AND AOO AND HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED TO
IFR AND THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL DECREASE AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR COND THAT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SNOW DECREASES
TONIGHT. LOW CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WED
NGT WITH MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE. AFTER 03Z THURSDAY...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT MOST TAF
SITES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
SHOULD ALLOW IFR TO CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR. 

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ019-042-
045-046-049>053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ012-017-
018-037-041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ024>028-
033>036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL



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