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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 160649
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
249 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR...DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
FLURRIES ALL THAT IS LEFT AND IR SHOWS UPSTREAM CLOUDS ALMOST
TOTALLY GONE. SKY - AND ALL - GRIDS ALL IN LINE. TEMPS JUST AT THE
CUSP OF FZG IN THE LOWER SUSQ RIGHT ON TIME. IF ONLY ALL FORECASTS
WORKED OUT SO WELL. 

PREV...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH MY
EASTERNMOST COUNTIES. PUBLIC REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME SLEET AND
WET SNOW IS MIXED IN...BUT AIR TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
MOST PART SO WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A SLUSHY COATING ON
GRASSY SURFACES. 

OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BANDED SNOW SHOWERS ARE MORE THE
RULE AND SOME PARTS OF THE NW HAVE PICKED UP A COATING WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUSTY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER. 

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH ALL AREAS BEING BELOW
FREEZING BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY REMAINING PUDDLES OR
WET PAVEMENT COULD FREEZE UP AND CAUSE LOCALIZED SLIPPERY TRAVEL.

THE NW WIND AND GUSTS WILL PEAK EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
DEEPENS IN COMBINATION WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 04-06Z.

CLOUDS WILL OF COURSE LINGER OFF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE NRN MTS.

MIN TEMPS EARLY WED ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR...OR EVEN SEVERAL
DEG F BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMO SECTION BELOW FOR
SPECIFIC RECORDS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. 

THE CLEARING AND SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE 20S.
EVEN THE SE WILL GET INT THE M20S - EVEN WITH A 10-15KT NWRLY WIND
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. A FREEZE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES WHICH HAVE JUST PASSED THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN DATE OF LAST SPRING FREEZE...AND A FREEZE
WATCH WAS RECENTLY POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SAME SE
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A MAINLY SUNNY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AVERAGE MINUS 8-12...MAXS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STG RIDGING WILL EXTEND SWWD ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM
STG HP CELL CENTERED OVER MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
AGAIN WED NGT INTO AM THURS...AND THEREFORE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO +3-4SD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE EASTERLY MARITIME LLVL FLOW WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LGT RAIN/DZ POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE
SERN ZONES.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-SAT WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN OVER THE NW
1/3 OF THE CWA. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS IDEA BUT TIMING
DIFFS MAY BE AN ISSUE. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BRIEFLY RELAXES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE REAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM...WITH STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /CUT-OFF LOW PROGGED ALONG THE WEST COAST...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE- AVG 500MB RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TROUGHING LINGERING OVER THE NERN CONUS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE PCPN PATTERN DUE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE LW FLOW...WITH
SEVERAL LOW-MEDIUM CHC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN IN THE OUTER
PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS -10 TO -15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A MILDER SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW READINGS
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT LKLY STILL AVG
BELOW LATE APRIL CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS. A LARGE VARIATION IN CIGS...WILL HOLD ONTO
LOWER CIGS AT JST AND BFD.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUIDS INTO THE AREA.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU AND MOST OF FRI.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER POSSIBLE BY SAT.

OUTLOOK...
.THU-FRI...GENERALLY VFR.
.SAT...REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN /AND POSSIBLY SOME WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN/.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MORNING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WILL
CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS. BELOW ARE SELECTED RECORDS FROM AROUND THE
AREA. 

AOO... WEDNESDAY 24/1950/... THURSDAY 23/1980/
BFD... WEDNESDAY 18/1980/... THURSDAY 16/1983/
IPT... WEDNESDAY 20/1943/... THURSDAY 25/1904/
MDT... WEDNESDAY 25/1943/... THURSDAY 29/1980/

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR 
PAZ057-059-063>066.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...COLBERT/STEINBUGL



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