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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 281148
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND DRIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE
INTO REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
11-3.9 UM IR LOOP AT 0830Z SHOWS JUST A FEW SLOWLY DWINDLING
PATCHES OF HIGH BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU ACROSS THE SUSQ/S WEST
BRANCH VALLEY...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SE COUNTIES...EAST OF
KMUI. ELSEWHERE SKIES WERE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND.

TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MTNS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL JUST JUST ANOTHER 1-2 DEG F TO REACH MORNING
LOWS.

FOG THROUGHOUT THE LARGER STREAM/RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS NRN AND
WESTERN PENN WILL OCCUR THROUGH 12Z...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING
BY 13Z. 

TODAY WILL BEGIN OUR WARM UP AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO BUILD.
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING LARGE STREAM RIVER VALLEY FOG...SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MODEL 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT
HIGHS FROM THE 70S OVR MOST OF CENTRAL PA...TO THE L80S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...SOME 5-8 DEG WARMER THAN THURSDAY...AND
NUDGING NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO EASTERN PENN TONIGHT. THIS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BRING CLEAR TO PTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AN INCREASE IN CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES OF WESTERN
PENN ON SATURDAY...AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 30MM BY 00Z
SUN. 

SREF PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG IS ZERO THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY...AND MU CAPES ARE AOB 200 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH THIS 
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE RETURN OF 
WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. 

A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE 
OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY...AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...BUT 
COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING 
INTO MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE 
EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO STAY 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. IT SHOULD ALSO KEEP CENTRAL 
PA MAINLY DRY...EXCLUDING ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. EXPECT THESE REDUCING CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE FOR LIFTING BETWEEN 14Z TO
15Z. HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN BFD...JST...AND AOO FOR THIS. BY 15Z
EXPECT VFR TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUING THROUGHTODAY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR REDUCING CONDITIONS...MAINLY AT JST...BFD...AOO
AND IPT...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI EVE AND SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR WITH A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/HAGNER
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER



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