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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 252124
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
524 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...AND BASICALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN
SUNDAY...THEN INCREASINGLY MILD DAYS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA DURING MID WEEK. MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE
TO NWRN OHIO AT 1830Z. PRECEDING THIS FRONT WAS AN AREA OF BKN-OVC
STRATO CU ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF PENN. 

EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NW MTNS OF PENN 21-23Z ACCOMPANIED
BY ISOLATED SPRINKLES...AND PERHAPS A STRAY...BRIEF RAIN SHOWER.
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES AS
THIS FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF BKN
STRATO/ALTO CU BETWEEN 00-04Z.

VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL WILL MAINTAIN 
SW-WSW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE.

LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE 3-4F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY /FRIDAY/.
MAXS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND 60S
TO NEAR 70F HEADING SE FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS TO THE LWR SUSQ
VALLEY.

WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW IN THE LOWEST SVRL KFT TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT LLVL PRES GRADIENT AND FAIRLY STG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL 155 KT 300
MB JET TO BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH.

LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO AROUND 40F ACROSS THE NRN
AND WRN MTNS AND LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN SATURDAY...BUT
STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SLIGHTLY GREATER DEPARTURES OF ABOUT -5F WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST.

VERTICAL MIXING UP TO AROUND 4 KFT AGL WILL TAP 25 TO 30KT WINDS
AND TRANSPORT THEM DOWN TO THE SFC IN GUSTS BETWEEN 14-22Z.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS COULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE RH/S SHOULD
NOT DIP BELOW 30 PCT...THANKS TO THE COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS. 
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
AGAINST POSTING A FIRE WX WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM PATTERN OVER THE U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA 
WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUCCESSIVE DEEP TROUGHS WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THESE WILL BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES BEFORE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
THROU BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH/FALLING HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SHOULD BE SITUATED NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS DRIER...WARMER
AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD...CURRENTLY EXPECTING A NARROW FRONTAL BAND TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS OPERATIONAL
EC...AND GFS DIFFER AS TO STRENGTH...TIMING AND POSITION. DRIER
FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE.  

HIGH TEMPS IN PA ON TUESDAY MAY GET INTO THE U60S NORTH AND U70S
IN THE SOUTH...OR ABOUT 15F TO 18F ABOVE NORMALS. THE MAIN SFC LOW
WITH THIS LONG- WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE FROM LS TO JAMES BAY LATE
TUES INTO WED. WILL THEREFORE DRAW THE BELL CURVE OF POPS TO
SURROUND TUES NIGHT...BUT ALSO LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHCS IN THE SRN
TIER FOR WED.

THE CONFIDENCE LOWERS SOME FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS IN FROM THE WEST
LATER IN THE WEEK...AND MAY HAVE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BEHIND IT. THE TROUGH AND COLDER AIR APPEAR TO MOVE OUT VERY
QUICKLY IN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 21Z TAFS.

COLD FRONT IS DRY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS OF 4 PM.

MAIN CONCERN IS GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE THIS AFT...INTO
SUNDAY.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE INVOF KBFD AND
KJST WHERE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR STRATO CU /AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES/ WILL OCCUR AS THE COOLER AIR CONTAINING LIMITED
MOISTURE OFF THE LOWER GLAKES IS LIFTED ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES.

WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENN LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT. FAIRLY TIGHT LLVL PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF...AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WSWRLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25
KTS THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND 25 TO 30KTS FROM THE NW LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. 
TUE AND TUE NIGHT...GUSTY WINDS/SHRA AND AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT...MAINLY OVR THE W MTNS. 
WED AND THUR...BRIEF MVFR AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY
WED...OTHERWISE NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN



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