Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
State College, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3]



000
FXUS61 KCTP 041253
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
853 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
MORNING...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. 
THIS FRONT SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING SFC CFRONT EXTENDING FROM
KBFD...TO KPBZ. RATHER ABOUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WAS STILL PRESENT
TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 60S. 
PWAT OF 1-1.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO RESDIE ACROSS THE NCENT MTNS
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER SUSQ REGION. A TONGUE OF DEEP/DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON DURING
THE TIME OF...AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA. LITTLE OR NO CHC FOR
RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. IN CONTRAST...THE MOIST
LLVLS...APPROACHING SFC FRONT...AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAKING EAST FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY WILL TEAM UP TO
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCT STRONG TSRA
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NCENT MTNS...MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG ACROSS
THE SUSQ REGION...AND AS SOME DRIER AIR ENTERS THE PICTURE
ALOFT...THESE VALUES SHOULD GROW A BIT MORE TO 1200-1400 J/KG
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC MID LVL TEMPS COOLING BY UP TO SVRL DEG C 
SHOULD SUPPORT A FAIR AMT OF CU/STRATOCU AFTER 14Z...AS WELL AS
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLTD-SCT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTN.

MDL 8H TEMPS RANGING FROM 13C-16C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
THIS AFTN FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE U80S ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED AFTN WGUSTS TO 15-20KTS BASED ON
AMT OF MIXING EXPECTED AND MDL 850 WIND FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SCT SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE N MTNS WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL
SHRA LATE TONIGHT W/PASSAGE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO BASE OF
UPPER TROF OVR THE E GRT LKS.

SFC RIDGE AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE ON
WED...SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH MSUNNY SKIES...LGT WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS BTWN 10C-13C SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
FROM THE L70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE L80S OVR THE SE COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC WIND GUSTS
15-20KTS 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy