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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 220002
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
802 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO RAINFALL GRIDS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING MOST OF
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. STORMS
ARE LOCALLY MARGINAL...WITH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES (0-3KM EHI)
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION. WHILE STRUCTURES HAVE NOT PERSISTED FOR
MORE THAN A FEW TO SEVERAL SCANS...STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR LLVL ROTATION GIVEN LOW LCLS AND ELEVATED EHIS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE A REPLAY
OF RECENT NIGHTS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE
10-13Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO NEW ENG BY FRI MORNING.
MODELS ARE TRACKING A TRAILING SHORTWAVE SEWRD THRU CENTRAL PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A FINAL ROUND CONVECTION LIKELY FRI AFTN-
EVE. ONCE AGAIN KEPT LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SHEAR AXIS...
WHICH MODELS INDICATE FROM KBFD TO KTHV. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ANOTHER
DAY OF LCLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...SOME
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS
FEATURE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO WORK SWRD THRU CENTRAL
PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
ASCENDING THE APPALACHIANS COULD PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SHOULD STAY QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE BUILD AND TILT OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW MOVING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WX
THRU MOST OF THE EXTENDED FCST.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS WILL 
DRIFT SOUTH LATE THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR AND BRIGHTER WX TO 
CENTRAL PA. PTSUNNY SKIES SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND A BIT ON 
SUNDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BLW NORMAL.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD PERSIST...AS THE MID
RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MID NEXT WEEK THE FCST
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN MED
RANGE MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. GEFS KEEPS RIDGE AND FAIR WX GOING
THRU WED...WHILE ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH SE INTO THE REGION...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OFF WITH
THEIR TIMING. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHC OF TSRA WED INTO THURSDAY. WHAT
APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT THE COOL TEMPS OF THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE
WAY TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS
COOL AIR MASS MODIFIES UNDER STILL STRONG AUGUST SUN. GEFS AND EC
ENS 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDER AT BFD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOT NEAR OTHER TAF SITES AT 
THIS POINT.

MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES.

PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
THUS WENT WITH VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR FRIDAY AFT 16Z.
 
PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SFC AND ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD TOWARD PA.

OUTLOOK... 
FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG FOLLOWED BY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS AND 
BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. 
SUN-TUE...AM LOW CIGS PSBL. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL



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