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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240433 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1233 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO ADJUST
SURFACE TDS TO DENOTE THE DRIER AIR SINKING TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER...AS CIRRUS SHIELD TO WEST IS
HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION. TEMPS WERE IN
LINE WITH LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. STILL EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE...BUT WITH CLOUDS...HAVE BACKED
OFF HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAYS SYSTEM. NOW
SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION. THESE
FACTORS HAVE ALSO CAUSED A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM'S EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...PROMPTING THE PUSHING BACK OF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS.
BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED...PASSAGE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF HIGHER SFC TDS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. BRINGING AN END TO THE
SHOWERS. 

WILL NEED TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. 

WILL ALSO KEEP IN SCHC TO CHC POPS ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE OR UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS BOUNDARY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. 

A BIT COOLER TEMPS ON SATURDAY. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A FRIDAY
COLDFRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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