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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010510 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
110 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE UPDATED POPS AS
SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPS ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE.

NOT MUCH TO TARGET ON TODAY AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS WE ARE STUCK UNDER AN AIR-MASS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
HOLDING ON TO A SATURATED LAYER FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT IN THIS
UNSTABLE REGIME TO FIRE CONVECTION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THIS...
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMIDITY LEVELS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ENTRENCHED. TIMING ON THE
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON VIEWABLE WITH A LINE OF
LOW LEVEL FORCING. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET TO SEE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH THE RISK FOR STORMS. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION. WOULD THINK
THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 2 INCHES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE CROSSING BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING...CARRYING
THE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION.

DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER DRIER
AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM. 

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FURTHER CONDITION DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MRNG WITH
IFR ST AND FG DVLPMNT AS LLVL MSTR RMNS POOLED ALNG THE WRN FLANK
OF A SFC RIDGE AXIS.

EXPECT A GRDL RTN TO VFR AFTR DAYBREAK AS WARMTH AND SLY FLOW
MIXES OUT THE MSTR. THE BTR CHC FOR MORE RESTRICTIONS WL BE WITH
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE TNGT.

OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS ARE LIKELY WITH A TUE CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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