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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 192350
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH 8PM UPDATE...MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CIRRUS COVERAGE HAS
COME IN A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND THINK THAT THIS MAY
SLOW DOWN THE COOLING TREND OVERNIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MID- AND UPR-LVL CLDS WILL INCR AHEAD OF APRCHG SHRTWV TROF THAT
WILL DIG INTO GRTLKS TNGT. WIND ALREADY HAS BCM LGT AND WILL BACK
TO SWLY IN RESPONSE TO APRCHG TROF. WITH LGT WIND...COOL TEMPS AND
LMTD THICKNESS TO CI IMPINGING ON SRN ZONES...FROST WILL BE PSBL
IN FAR SRN ZONES... WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. FROST
ADZY WAS ISSUED FOR MARION/MONONGALIA/WETZEL CTYS FOR LATE TNGT.
ELSEWHERE...GROWING SEASON IS OVER OR MINIMA WILL RMN TOO ELEVATED
FOR FROST.

PREV SHIFT TRENDED SLOWER WITH PCPN ONSET ON MON...WHICH SEEMS
LIKE A GOOD CHOICE. THIS TREND WAS CONTD TDA...WITH PCPN ONLY XPCD
TO REACH NWRN ZONES BY LATE MON AFTN. TROF AXIS WILL CROSS MON
NGT...AND PCPN WILL SHIFT EWD THRU EARLY TUE MRNG. BY END OF MON
NGT PD...PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOCUSED IN FAR ERN ZONES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPR TROF AND ALONG LAKESHORES AS NWLY FLOW BEHIND
CDFNT INCRS CVRG OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHWRS. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT THESE
PDS WAS TO INCR POPS TO CATEGORICAL MON NGT AND INTRODUCE SHARPER
PCPN GRADIENT BY TUE MRNG.

TEMPS ON MON XPCD TO CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS FILTERED SUNSHINE
XPCD IN WARM SECTOR OWING TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN. KRAMAR

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY MORE INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE RESIDENT TROUGH
OVER THE REGION. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL FAIRLY WELL BY
AFTERNOON...IN FACT EVEN ENOUGH THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
BE NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. WHILE VERY SKINNY CAPE DOES MANAGE TO
WORK ITS WAY UP ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...TOTAL CAPE VALUES OF
ROUGHLY 100 J/KG AND MINIMAL SHEAR MAKE ADDING THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FORECAST SEEM LIKE OVERKILL. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE MAY BE A ONE STRIKE WONDER AROUND.

UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF...CUTS OFF...AND SLOWLY...BEGRUDINGLY...MEANDERS EASTWARD FROM
THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR A PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW
WIND DOWN IN POPS AND AN EVEN SLOWER CLEAR OUT OF THE SKIES GOING
TOWARD THE LONGER TERM. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SYSTEM FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR INTO MONDAY AS ONLY CIRRUS ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MID DECK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS
LATE DAY. 

.AVIATION /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ012-021-022.

&&

$$






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