Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Pittsburgh, PA banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200511 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND PROVIDES WARMER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE TO TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. 

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FIELD AT THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS
WILL INTENSIFY PUSHING WARM AIR NORTHWARD. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND...RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. PRE-FRONTAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP POPS LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE MORE CLOUDS THAN
PRECIPITATION.

FRONT REACHES WESTERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND AN IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT CONTINUE TO SEE A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHTS
SHORTWAVE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS INCREASES. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THIS LIMITS SURFACE TEMPS. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
SHOWERS THAT FALL WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE...FURTHER DECREASING THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS.

SUNDAY'S FRONT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A STRONGER EVENT...BUT SO ARE THE LIMITING FACTORS. IF A LINE
OF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPS IT WILL BE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. 

FRONT PICKS UP SPEED SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW
THE SHORTWAVE. WOULD EXPECT A LARGE STRATOCU DECK TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH A LARGE PART OF MONDAY. ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MAIN COLD POOL.

WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY WITH THE CAA AND CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL ST/SC AT FKL AND DUJ IN THE PREDAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONT WITH SFC WIND PRECLUDING FOG WHILE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH...AND GUSTING NR 20 KT BY SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERAL RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy