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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 190124
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO OUR NORTH
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A WEAKER NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT TO BECOME
COMMON OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY AND UPPER LEVEL MODEL RH PLOTS REFLECT THIS VERY WELL.
THIS WILL KEEP A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THAT
SAID...ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL ALSO
KEEP THE RISK OF PRECIPITATION NEARLY NIL RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A WEAK GRADIENT...ALONG WITH INCOMING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM AND LIKELY BEYOND AS A COMBINATION OF WEAK ADVECTION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EVENTUAL WET BULBING KEEP A LID ON
TEMPERATURES. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL SUPPLY A
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS CONFIRM THAT 850MB WARM AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AS
850MB LOW IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THICKNESS
LEVELS WILL BE TOO WARM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING
SOUTH OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR AS THIS WILL HELP LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF PITTSBURGH...SREF AND GEFS PLUMES INDICATES
MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE BRIEF 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT QPF REMAINS LIGHTER
THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE FRIDAY MORNING
TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW.

BRIEF ZONAL FLOW ADVANCES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES FOR
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...WOULD BE NORTH OF PIT AND
ACROSS THE RIDGES WITH WEAK UPSLOPE...AND THEREFORE INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REINFORCES
ITS WAY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO DRY CONDITIONS OUT.

TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR ADVECTS OVER THE REGION WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LOOKS LIKELY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER
NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS SET UP AND PREVENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
TOMORROW WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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