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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
543 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. PREV DISCUSSION BELOW..

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP COVERAGE.

THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SHOULD KEEP SHOWER CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS S OF THE AREA. WITH WARM
AIR ALOFT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BUT AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE S OF PIT ALSO. ELSEWHERE...CAPPING SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE MONDAY. PREFERRED THE GFS 
SOLUTION/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AND WARM AIR CAPPING SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BRING SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS USING TWEAKED GFS AND SREF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING
FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN
AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING
UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE
RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE
EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE
ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING
FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL
BE FEATURED EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSRA IMPACTING SITES SOUTH OF KPIT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS STABILIZE. BEFORE DAYBREAK AREAS OF MFVR AND SOME IFR
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD 14Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WESTERLY EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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