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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 280611 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A
STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A
GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE
PART OF THE BAND CROSSES.

WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW-
LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND
WILL CLIP.

HAVE ALSO INCREASED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATION ACROSS
MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL
MOVE THROUGH AS THE BAND BREAKS APART AND MORE ACTIVITY MOVES DOWN
FROM NORTHEAST OHIO. 

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS
AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO
CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD
HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE
AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING.

TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE
WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY. 

WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE
FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT
WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO
AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A
SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073-
     074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023-
     041.

&&

$$






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