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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231448
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MRNG UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST HOURLY TRENDS OF POPS AND
TEMPS...PREVIOUS PROG OF WHICH WAS TOO CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE SLOW
FRONTAL INVASION AND FILTERED SUNSHINE.

OTHERWISE...THE CDFNT WL SLIDE ACRS THE REGION TDA. SFC WIND OVR
NE OH IS ALREADY VEERING WITH PASSAGE OF PREFRONTAL TROF...BUT
DRIER AIR SHOULD NOT BE ANTICIPATED UNTIL TNGT. LIKELY POPS WERE
ADJUSTED SWD WITH EXPECTATIONS OF AFTN/EARLY EVE SHRTWV SPPRT AND
HIGHER INSTABILITY VIA HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POPS DIMINISHMENT FM THE NW CAN BE EXPECTED TNGT...WITH LINGERING
SLGT...TO CHC NMBRS FOR AREAS S AND E OF PIT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY GIVEN THE PROG OF ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS THE STABILIZING UPR
OH REGION.

NEVERTHELESS...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WL BE ADVECTING OVR THE ENTIRE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW MVFR
IN SHOWERS WITH VCNTY THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN LATER TERMINALS BASED ON REDEVELOPMENT AS MAIN LINE IS
QUICKLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND NEAR 10KT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH
FROPA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL COME LATER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15




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