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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241828
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
EVENING. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE WITH COLD FRONT NOW INTO EASTERN OHIO.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR LATE AFTERNOON. NO CHANGE TO POPS OR
WINDS. WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND FRONT STILL GUSTING TOWARD 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING ALLOWING TAPPING OF LOW LEVEL JET
OF 50-60KTS AROUND 3-4K FEET. NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH SURFACE
AND BEST JET STAYS WEST TOWARD OHIO...SO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD. BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY
INTO THE EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR WRAPPING IN UNDERNEATH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUES MORNING FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SW...BUT A STOUT INVERSION 
PROGGED AT H85 WILL HOLD LLVL MOISTURE IN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. 
THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS HOLDING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. H85 TEMPS IN 
THE -4C TO -6C RANGE STEEPENS LAPSE RATES IN THE BL ENOUGH TO 
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. KEEPING POPS MAINLY ALONG AND 
NORTH OF I-80 DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 

BRIEF RESPITE FROM DISTURBED WEATHER TUES EVENING...BUT THE NEXT 
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT HOLIDAY 
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE HEADED EAST. A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL 
TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDS WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF THE 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ERN SLOPES OF 
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. EXACT PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS OF 
PRECIPITATION DEPEND ON THE INTERACTION WITH A CLIPPER-TYPE 
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS. ATTM MODEL SOLNS STILL VARY 
GREATLY WITH THE NAM BRINGING THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE IN  
QUICKER...ULTIMATELY PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW EAST OF THE 
AREA....HOLDING ALL PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT OUT OF OUR 
RIDGES. THE 00Z ECMWF IS ON THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM 
ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK FURTHER WEST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING 
WEST TO AT LEAST THE OHIO BORDER. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD...DECIDED TO 
HOLD ONTO THE SREF AS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DECENT COMPROMISE. POPS 
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD...HOWEVER...TO SHOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION GETTING WEST OF THE RIDGES. 

COMPLICATING MATTERS FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPS HOVERING 
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION. 
ATTM...OPTED FOR A MAV/MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS WEDS...AND APPLIED A 
LIBERAL RAIN/SNOW DELINEATION...GIVEN THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT AND 
A RELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. ALL TOLD...THROUGH 
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING...BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THE 
CLIPPER...HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE RIDGES AND LITTLE TO 
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST. FOR 
REFERENCE...THE GFS...WHICH HOLDS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE 00Z ECMWF 
MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE...GENERATES AROUND 6" IN THE HIGHEST 
ELEVATIONS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. 
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM 
WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST 
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES. 
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS 
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS 
WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING 
BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING.

FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL 
GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE 
BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC 
HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN 
UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT 
LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO 
PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. 
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE FRONTS PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING BUT GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PER THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBS...SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A PERIOD THROUGH
THE EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW LIFTING THE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH
OPTED TO CARRY VFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS 
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL 
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REGION TODAY. HERE IS
A SUMMARY OF CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE STANDING
RECORDS AND YEARS OF RECORD OCCURRENCE.

CITY                     FORECAST  RECORD/YEAR 
PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL    71         69/1931
MORGANTOWN                  74         72/1979
ZANESVILLE                  65         70/2001
NEW PHILADELPHIA            65         71/1979
WHEELING                    71         70/2001
DUBOIS                      67         61/1979

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
     021>023-041.

&&

$$









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