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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 232208
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
608 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
6PM UPDATE...MAINLY JUST UPDATED FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
REST LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE FOG POSSIBILITIES LATER
THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WHICH WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS TO
SET UP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...IF MORE
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TOGETHER. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY MORNING UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHG TO PREV FCST DURG THE WKEND. SHRTWV TROF WILL PASS
GENLY N OF FCST AREA...BARELY GRAZING THE RGN ON SAT AFTN AND EVE.
VERY LMTD MSTR WILL PRECLUDE SGFNT SHWR DVLPMT...BUT ALL GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE SOME CVRG OF PCPN WITH THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SLGT CHC
POPS CONTAINED IN PREV FCST SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH ONLY MINOR
CHGS LMTD TO TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY. SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN
ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREV DRY FCST WAS QUITE REASONABLE THRU TUE AS DRY HIPRES WILL
DOMINATE THE GRTLKS RGN...WHICH WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF UPR
RDG. BY MONDAY EVE...RETURN FLOW AROUND ERN CONUS SFC HIPRES WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE...WITH SLY LOW-LVL JET DVLPG IN THE MS RVR VLY
RGN AHEAD OF A STRONG SHRTWV TROF. RESULT WILL BE STRONG NWD
ADVCTN OF MSTR AND WARMTH. AS A RESULT...TEMPS MON AND SPCLY TUE
WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM...PSBLY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F ABV CLIMO.

MEDIUM-RNG GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING PASSAGE OF
THE STRONG SHRTWV TROF ON WED...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THAT PASSAGE WILL OCCUR WED MRNG OR WED AFTN. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WERE INCRD ABV MEX NUMBERS AND GENLY IN LINE WITH HPC
NUMBERS DURING THE WED PD. A FURTHER INCR IN POPS MAY BE WARRANTED...
AS IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE PCPN AT SOME TIME ON
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE...NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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