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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240601
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH LARGE SCALE STRATIFORM RAINFALL ARE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AND ACROSS I-80 AT THIS HOUR. A FAIRLY STARK
DRY SLOT IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FOLLOWING IT AND IS ALSO
WELL DEPICTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS VIA A VERY DEEP TROPOPAUSE
FOLD THAT IS PULLING THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE DOWN TOWARD AND BELOW 600
MB ON MOST GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
AREA.

AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES FURTHER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE DEEPENING TROPOPAUSE FOLD REMAINS
SPLAYED OUT FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD NORTHERN OHIO RIGHT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND VERY
EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
CORRIDOR OF THE 50-60 KTS OF AVAILABLE MOMENTUM. GIVEN THAT WE ARE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THIS AREA...IT WOULD SEEM THE VERY
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 45 KTS IS STILL A VERY REASONABLE FORECAST FOR
GUSTING POTENTIAL IN MANY SPOTS. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPR TROFG AND A DEEPENING SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE UPR GT LKS MON. THE LOWS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A MON
AFTN PASSAGE ACRS OUR RGN. MSTR IS LTD SO MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH
FROPA. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ARND THE DEEPENING LOW SHOULD
BRING GUSTY SFC WNDS AS MXG BEGINS MON. FCST SOUNDINGS/GUST
TECHNIQUES INDICATE GUSTS TO ARND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. WL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FM LT MON MRNG INTO ERLY EVE AS WNDS WL LIKELY STAY
GUSTY FOR A FEW HRS AFT FROPA.

COLD ADVCTN KICKS IN AFT FROPA AS BROAD UPR TROFG RMNS ACRS THE GT
LKS AND UPR MIDWEST THRU TUE. STRATOCU IS EXPD...THOUGH SNW SHWR
CHCS WL BE MINIMAL WITH A SW BNDRY LYR FLOW PREVENTING ANY LK
CONNECTIONS OR SGFNT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. 

ANOTHER BROAD UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO SET UP BY MID WK...AS A
COASTAL LOW DVLPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC RGN. THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS
TRACK RMNS IN QN...AND THIS WL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE POTENTIAL AMT
AND LOCATION OF SNW THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS. THE SREF SOLN LOOKS
VRY REASONABLE ATTM GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PTN ATTM...WHICH BRINGS SNW
CHCS FM PIT EWD...AND KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN E OF OUR AREA. 

TEMPS ARE EXPD TO RCH 10-15 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS MON...BUT WL DCR
TO ARND 10 DEG BLO AVG BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE VARIATIONS IN GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE AND ADJUSTED
FORECAST WITH THE NEW WPC PROGS TEMPERED WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF. AS
STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ADVANCING
TOWARD ONLY THE MOST NORTHERN TAF SITES AT THIS HOUR. A LARGE
SCALE DRY SLOT FOLLOWS IT WITH WINDS GUSTING AND TURNING A BIT
MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THIS DRY SLOT...STRATUS IS ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL LIKELY COME OVER MOST SITES IN THE WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW BY
AFTERNOON AS STRATUS SCOURS OUT. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. FRIES


OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS 
     EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

$$






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