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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
923 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY ELEMENTS FOR THE LATE
EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILLHELP PROMOTE FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE
CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY
POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY
SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW
AT THIS TIME.

THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE
TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN
CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT
RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN
FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC.
STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR FOG OCCURS OVER THE TERMINALS BY DAWN AS THE SKY
CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
APPROXIMATELY 14Z...RETURNING CONDITIONS TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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