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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180129
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
929 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY COULD BRING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRASTICALLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOOD INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING ON SLACKENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN OFF WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND GIVEN THE TOTAL
EVISCERATION OF MOISTURE IN THE REST OF THE COLUMN...WE WILL BE
UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO BUY A CLOUD THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS
SUCH...THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR TO RIDICULOUSLY DRASTIC
TEMPERATURE FALLS WILL BE THE FACT THAT THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP UP
A BIT OVERNIGHT. THOUGH IT DOES SEEM A FEW OF THE ISOLATED LOWER
SPOTS ARE GOING CALM THIS EVENING...IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKE THIS
PROBLEM SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD AND CAUSE AREAWIDE TEMPERATURE
CRATERING. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT REMAINING TO INFLUENCE THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS IN THE AREA...RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE JUST A TAD BELOW OPTIMAL. EVEN
STILL...THE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN BY MORNING...AND GIVEN DRY AIR IN
PLACE...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
PLUMMET OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID...WIDESPREAD TEENS SEEM LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY THE WARMEST SPOTS MANAGING TO STAY
ABOVE 20F BY MORNING. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION...BRINGING PRECIP FARTHER NORTH. TRENDED POPS UPWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COULD HAVE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
ONSET...WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MD/WV
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

A BLEND OF THE LATEST SREF AND GRIDDED MOS NUMBERS RESULTED IN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ADVANCING TROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
NW WIND WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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