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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 231029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
629 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. FRONT WILL
RECEIVE AND NICE PUSH FROM A STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL SWING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AND
BEHIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LEVELS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX CLOSE TO -4. WOULD THINK THAT IF ANY
STRONGER ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTH. SHEAR
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25KTS...AND WITH FRONT
CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY 20Z...IT WILL NOT CROSS AT THE MOST
OPTIMAL TIME.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL PASS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...WILL NEED TO KEEP IN POPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EXIT THE FAR
SOUTH. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LEAVING IN POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZING SO EXPECT
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS ON THURSDAY...BY THIS
TIME MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
THE TROUGH PASSES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS EXPLORING SOME DIFFERENT OPTIONS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED ONCE MODEL RUN TO RUN BECOMES
MORE CONSISTENT. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN FRONT AND HAVE ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF VCSH WITH THUNDER AT
AGC. OTHERWISE BY LATE MORNING APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
TIP OF LAKE ERIE AT 10Z WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW MVFR IN
SHOWERS WITH VCNTY THUNDER STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NEED TO BE
REFINED IN LATER TERMINALS BASED ON REDEVELOPMENT AS MAIN LINE IS
QUICKLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10KT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10KTS WITH FROPA
LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERAL VFR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE 
AREA. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW 
PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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