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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281912
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
212 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE UPPER OHIO REGION ON THURSDAY AND SNOW EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WL CONT TO BLD EWD TNGT AS SHRTWV TROUGH MOVS RAPIDLY
OUT OF THE MIDWEST. INITIAL TEMP DROP WL BE RAPID IN THE DRY
AIRMASS...BUT WL BE EVENTUALLY RETARDED BY WARM...MOIST ADVCTN
ABOVE THE BNDRY LYR.

OVRNGT LOWS WERE BASED ON PERSISTENCE WITH THE LATEST GFS AND NAM TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY WITH THE SFC LOW PROJECTED WELL ENOUGH NORTH FOR THE ERN
FLANK WARM SURGE TO SPPRT A WINTRY MIX AND CHANGE TO RAIN OVR
MOST OF THE REGION.

LATEST MDL TRENDS ARE OF LATER SFC SATURATION AND BTR CHANCE THAT
SFC TEMPS WL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. NEVERTHELESS...THE
PROGNOSIS WAS HEDGED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF
WET BULBING IN THE DEEP DRY LAYER. AT ANY RATE...THE FORECAST
FEATURES A SNOW RAIN OVR MOST OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY STILL
COMPLICATED BY FROZEN SURFACES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE ERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS THOSE ALNG
INTERSTATE 80...WHERE BTR CHC FOR ICE BUILDUP FOLLOWED BY SVRL
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WL RESIDE.

STRONG COLD ADVCTN WL SPPRT SNOW SHWRS INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LIMITATIONS IMPOSED VIA 
LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRY ADVCTN ON THE LEE OF A FROZEN LAKE
ERIE.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A 
STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS
PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH
MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL BRING VFR CONDS THRU TNGT. LOW PRES ADVNG ACRS THE GT
LKS IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS IN RAIN SHWRS THU S OF I 80...WITH
A WINTRY MIX TO THE N. PCPN SHOULD START FM LT MRNG INTO ERLY AFTN
W OF PIT...WITH A MD AFTN ARRIVAL E OF PIT. IN ADDN...A LLVL JET
SETTING UP FM OH INTO NWRN PA IS EXPD TO BRING LLWS TO ZZV THU
MRNG. WITH MXG EXPG SFC GUSTS AT FKL AND DUJ INSTEAD OF LLWS. 

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. WDSRPD RSTRNS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES SUN AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-023-074-076.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07




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