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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 181855
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
255 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL OHIO AS OF THIS
HOUR. IT IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE WIND SHIFT IN SURFACE OBS AND THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER LAKE ERIE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES AS
THE MEAGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAINS WELL
NORTH. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH
CIRRUS REMAINS OVERHEAD AND SOME DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT BEFORE SUNSET. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES.
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TONIGHT TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH CONSIDERING THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY WENT WITH LOWS IN THE 30'S AND
40'S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
BUT A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARM ADVECTION ENSUES. GENERALLY WENT
WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60'S AND LOW
70'S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 

THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY'S FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 20'S AND DRYING 10 HR FUEL LEVELS...WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MINIMAL CHANGE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT
CONTINUITY AND OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE THE
MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION...AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN
INCH. DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN WINDS SWITCHING
WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH NO PRECIP AS THERE
IS MINIMAL ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. VFR THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A TUESDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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