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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300539
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA. 

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR FOG ALREADY HAS DEVELOPED IN THE USUAL VALLEY LOW LYING AREAS
AND IS INCLUDED IN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR
ELSEWHERE. CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE ERIE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW. BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS MORNING CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MODELS
SHOWING RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT WHOLLY CONVINCED OF THIS BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. VCSH REMAINS MOST PORTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KFKL AND KDUJ. 

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$








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