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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 020218
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1018 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE LARGELY BASED OFF
PERSISTENCE...WITH A BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OVER
EASTERN INDIANA WHICH WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY BUT WARM
AIR ALOFT WILL LARGELY KEEP DEVELOPMENT CAPPED OFF. THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES AREAWIDE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS RIDGING
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE FORECAST LARGELY
BASED OFF OF BEST PERFORMING BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN RECENTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS UNDER WEAK MID ATLANTIC REGION
TROUGHING ON FRIDAY WERE THUS TAMPERED OFF INTO THE WEEKEND.
RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH A MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING WILL NOT AFFECT TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AND PREDAWN FOG.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FORECASTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PREDAWN FOG AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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