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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171044
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
644 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 
THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES...BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH THANKS TO THE
DRIER AIR ABOVE THE COLD AIR STRATOCU WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT...AS ALL OF THE ENERGY IS BEING SHEARED EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT MOST OF THIS IS OVER OHIO. ANY
SPRINKLES THAT DO FALL THIS MORNING WILL END QUICKLY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY...AS THE FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE DRIER...SO
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN AFTER MORNING CLOUDS. WITH THIS
PATTERN...HIGHS WILL BE REACHED IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY FALL. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIXING HEIGHTS RISE AND TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST WITH A MIX
OF MOS AND SREF...WHICH ARE WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AND STRUGGLE TO FIND A CONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN SOLUTION FOR ENERGY THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. WEEKEND LOOKS MAIN DRY...WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONT NEAR PIT AT PRESENT TIME...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR IS
STILL POSSIBLE AT FKL/DUJ. PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO SPRINKLES.
SCT-BKN CU FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...RIGHT AROUND THE MVFR-VFR
THRESHOLD. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO DIE OFF BY THE EVENING
HOURS...BY WHICH TIME THE CU DECK WILL HAVE DISSIPATED IN MOST
AREAS. A QUIET VFR NIGHT IS THEN ANTICIPATED.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM MAY
TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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