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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300501 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT PORTION OF FORECAST IS RIGHT IN LINE. WILL UPDATE TEMPS.

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA TODAY. STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME GETTING A HANDLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 50H LOW WHICH WILL TRAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE NEVER REALLY GETS LINED UP AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE 50H LOW...BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGS BACK WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DRY LAYER UP
TO AROUND 5000 FT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO
SATURATE TODAY THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WEAKENS THIS EVENING. THE 50H LOW OPENS UP AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO EASTERN PA. 

UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING 50H LOW SO WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN
THE FAR EAST FOR A PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS. 

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW ON THURSDAY...
PROVIDING SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST NAM IS SLOWING EVERYTHING DOWN...GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FRIDAY DOES
APPEAR LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM THE QUIET WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST TWO OR SO WEEKS...TO A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER
PATTERN. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ONLY BLEMISH ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM FM SHALLOW PREDAWN FOG. SHOULD MID LVL
CLDINESS DVLP A FEW HRS QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE ADVN OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...THAT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL BE
PRECLUDED.

OTHERWISE...SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP WITH THE DISTURBANCE...BUT
RESTRICTION POSSIBILITY LKS TO BE LTD TO SOME MVFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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